This article is authorized by the author Mu Zhiye. The "Qin'an Strategy" is exclusively published on the Toutiao platform. It is reprinted from the official account "Mu Zhiye". There are many exciting contents, welcome to follow.

[Editor's Note] This article is authorized by the author Mu Zhiye. The "Qin'an Strategy" is exclusively published on the Toutiao platform. It is reprinted from the official account "Mu Zhiye". There are many exciting contents, welcome to follow.

is approaching National H, and the epidemic in Beijing is getting tense again.

25 cases 10 transmission chains have been explained, which has shown the difficulty of epidemic prevention.

After epidemiological investigation and laboratory gene sequencing analysis, there was a total of 10 transmission chains in 25 cases, and there was no epidemiological association between each transmission chain, which was an independent transmission chain. Among them, there have been no new cases for at least five consecutive days and have been basically controlled. There are still sporadic new cases in the five transmission chains, and 2 new transmission chains have been added today.

About the epidemic trend this winter, it is basically clear now. The most important thing is to clarify two qualitative characteristics:

1. The sixth wave of the pandemic continues to spread
2. High probability of a new pandemic variant or a newly named strain

What does the medical community think? Dr. Wang Yuge, who is clinical research in Hanson, believes that the new coronavirus continues to evolve but the trend of " convergence evolution " is more obvious, that is, the new variants that lead to the pandemic will be produced in the Omickron strain .

Dr. Wang's view:

1, Omicron mutant strain has approached a limit of SARS-CoV-2 evolution.
2, perhaps the future epidemic trend of viruses will be the new subtype of Omicron+.
3. The predictions of strains, subtypes and peak epidemics every time after 2022 are very accurate, which is due to the continuous improvement of molecular epidemiology during the epidemic.

But I personally believe that over the past three years, from vaccines defeating the virus, to vaccines stopping transmission, and vaccines reduce mortality, the scientific community's understanding of new crown has been constantly subverted, and it has become a very normal thing.

In fact, what we are most important now is not blind optimism, just like WHO was originally preparing to announce the end of the COVID-19 pandemic summer, including Biden also announced the end of the US COVID-19, which encountered domestic protests.

We may need to be prepared for the emergence of new viruses.

If a new virus appears, the biggest impact is not the mortality rate, but three:

1. Once again, the escape of super strongly
2. The human function declined under repeated infection
3. gave the already weak world economy a severe blow to

It is reported that in the latest research in the United States, the new crown has been equated with AIDS , which is an important cause of human leukocytopenia.

If the vaccine is vaccinated 1-2 times a year and the infection is 1-2 times a year, the excess death toll of humans on the entire earth will increase significantly in the next three years.

Every infection is a weakening of the human immune system of . It is hard for us to imagine what is fixed 1-2 times a year. Moreover, there are no sequelae of influenza influenza.

At the same time, the impact of the epidemic on China's economy is also expanding. If there is no relaxation, domestic enterprises can not withstand it. Will more and more foreign-funded enterprises choose to leave?

There must be a threshold. If you pass the threshold, you have to choose the least.

This is the reason why I said that it is necessary to relax moderately and safely on the basis of insisting on " dynamically clearing ", especially the one-size-fits-all fight against the epidemic. But, the question is how to operate it? At present, I still don't see a way to have the best of both worlds.

On October 8, the state issued a reply on agreeing to temporarily adjust the implementation of relevant administrative regulations in Tianjin, Shanghai, Hainan and Chongqing.

allows foreign-invested travel agencies established and qualifying in Shanghai and Chongqing to engage in outbound tourism business except Taiwan; in Chongqing, Tianjin and Hainan Province, access to private non-enterprise units that donate foreign funds to hold non-profit nursing homes is relaxed.

This is one of the signals.

We will determine the scale based on the international epidemic situation. According to the development of the epidemic, about two time points, I personally speculate that it is mid-December and February.

must be able to be released or collected. China is not ready to be fully open. hospital must also be covered, and the fourth needle has not yet come out. If a new virus comes out and the fourth shot is not inoculated, it will be very passive.

stared at the above two qualitative characters, and we looked as we walked.

Another thing is that the flu will be worse this winter than in the previous two years, so it is best for children to get influenza vaccine. Remember to go to gathering places less and wear masks.

This winter is not easy, so make plans early.