Welcome to the logical statement.
Over the years, we often say that young people are becoming increasingly reluctant to get married. Is there any number to prove it? Of course, there is, , the relevant departments released the marriage logarithm of my country in 2021 two days ago. How many are they? More than 7.6 million pairs. This number hit a new low in 30 years and is also the first time in more than 20 years that this number has fallen below 8 million. You should know that my country has a population of 1.4 billion. Every year, we only have more than 7 million pairs of people getting married. This number is really a bit pitiful.
Of course, I think many people pay attention to the logarithm of marriage, because how many people get married directly reflects how many newborns we have in the future. It is obvious that in recent years we have entered the trap of aging and low birth rate, and our population situation is actually quite serious. Why? Because the reversal of our population birth has happened in these few years.
Do you know? About 10 years ago, 13 million newlyweds got married in my country in 2011, and since that year, we have more than 13 million newlyweds got married every year for four consecutive years. During those years, we could have a population of about 16 million to 18 million each year. Although the total fertility rate was not very high, we felt that such a birth population was still sufficient to allow us to enjoy a population of decades in the future. dividend.
So at that time, many people suggested that we should quickly open , second-child . Some people disagreed, and they said no, you see, our current strict one-child system, we can give birth to 18 million people every year, if we open it, For second children, a large number of people have the intention to have second children and suddenly let them go. In a short period of time, we can give birth to 40 to 50 million people every year. Therefore, they believe that the second child should be slowed down, otherwise it will have a great impact on the lives of ordinary people in our country's economic growth.
Results About five or six years ago we opened the two-child policy . Although we had a small fertility peak in the year of opening up, this peak immediately became a trough. Even last year we opened all three children, and in many cities it was legal to have a few children, and you can get a household registration smoothly if you have a few children. However, how many people are willing to live? So by last year we only had about 10 million people a year, which means that the birth population and the logarithm of marriage were strictly positively correlated.
, especially we have a very serious problem, that is, young men and women get married is getting older and older. Just now we said that in 2021 we will have about 7 million couples getting married, and nearly 50% of them are young people over 30 years old. Our country has a late marriage and late childbirth reward policy, and our country's marriage age is already quite late , Women should reach 20 years old, men should reach 22 years old, and we also encourage late marriage. But even so, in our usual people's perception, it is too late to get married at the age of 24 or 25, but today more than half of the people have to choose to get married after the age of 30, and there are still a large number of people who don't even have any Getting married, so our population situation is really serious and critical.
10 years ago when 18 million people were born every year, we also fantasized about whether it was possible to let go of two children and give birth to more than 40 million people a year. Now everyone knows that even if we fully encourage childbirth in the future, it is a delusion to be able to give birth to 10 million people a year. Why? Not so many people get married, how come so many people have children?
Over the years, we often say that our neighbors Japan and South Korea have long been in the crisis of aging and low birth rate, and their population has shrunk since the past two years. To be honest, our aging and low birth rate are also fast enough. Now.
We understand very well why many young people today are unwilling to fall in love, marry, or have children. On the one hand, modern society provides a very generous living space for single people, you can live alone, work alone, and be alone. It is very good to eat, relax and entertain alone, eat hot pot alone, and watch movies alone.Many businesses have used this to launch many services specifically for single people. Therefore, when a person enters society from school, he may be used to a single life of up to 5 years and 10 years, but instead feels that the pressure of getting married is too great.
On the other hand, we are also very clear that marriage is not an easy task for a young couple. They have to have a house, have a bride price, and have to buy all kinds of wedding supplies. Even as soon as you get married, you immediately involve a question of whether to have a child. Raising a child is so difficult. You have to consider the cost of early education, the school district housing, and the cost of making up for it. So such heavy pressure is coming like mountains after mountains, which really makes many young people lose the motivation to get married and have children.
But on the other hand, from the perspective of the whole society, we must realize a fundamental problem. is the decrease in young people in a country, and the decrease in population in a country will definitely be a huge trap in the future. Why ? This may leave us with no support. This year is 2022. Many post-70s generation have entered retirement since the past two years. In the next 10 years, my country will welcome a large number of retirees born in the 1970s and 1980s generations. As the backbone of today's society, the post-80s generation can create a lot of wealth. But when they retire, their pension should theoretically be the pension insurance paid by the post-90s, post-00s, post-10s and even post-20s. However, we are facing a huge shrinkage in the population.
Today's young people are unwilling to get married and are unwilling to raise their offspring. So after 10 years and 20 years, there will be no new labor force coming in and cannot create more social wealth. Who cares for today's post-70s and post-80s? From a national perspective, without enough manpower, the country's economy will face major problems. From the perspective of a small family, there are no descendants. So when we are old, who will help us have a happy old age?
So this problem is really serious and imminent today and must be solved. As we just said, 18 million people can be born a year 10 years ago, and 13 million couples will get married a year. Today, 10 years later, just 10 years later, these two figures have almost been cut in half. . So if we continue to develop according to this trend in the next 10 years, is it possible that we will age faster than Japan and South Korea?
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