Probability and life

I teach mathematics, so I always think about problems. I love to think and seek laws from the point of view of mathematics. For a long time, I have always had an idea to understand my life from the perspective of probability and reveal the things in life. For some problems, I even wish to use probability to predict my future development in life. Summarizing the path I have traveled, in most cases subjective probability is controlling my own life trajectory. It is not an exaggeration to say that I am in control of my own destiny. This subjective probability can be understood as working hard and paying attention to methods and methods, plus The time that can be used for upscaling is equivalent to the numerator, and the denominator is the scientific and practical goal and vision set up in advance by yourself, others or the organization. If the larger the numerator, the denominator is always firm, then the result will be Getting bigger and better. When I entered junior high school, I was ranked third in the school. Thinking about it, I unintentionally believed in the expectations of the teachers and parents. At that time, the teachers and parents had a little high hope for me. Direct target. This "denominator" has remained constant throughout my five years of primary school, and my "psychological value" for realizing it has increased with the increase of grade and age. Therefore, now I understand that at that time " The increasing number of molecules is conscious and natural, and the realization of a higher “probability value” is also the result of “calculation” through hard work. After joining the work, the "denominator" I set for myself is to be an excellent teacher. This goal has never changed through work practice, encouragement from family members, and spurs from colleagues and leaders. With the continuous expansion of the "wish value" of being a "famous teacher", I have also consciously or unconsciously increased my efforts in loving my job, studying my business, and improving quality. Although there have been repeated declines during this period, the general " The "probability value" is increasing little by little, and I can feel it slowly. This may be the biggest success in my first half of my life. The result of such a good "probability value" today is not ideal. There are also deficiencies. But he is basically what I want. The "calculation" life is always better than the "random" life or even the "speculative" life, so I feel at ease.

I have to say that objective probability also occupies nearly one-tenth of the weight in the first half of my life. I am the kind of person who knew my strengths and weaknesses earlier, although I am also deliberately adjusting and correcting myself. Try to avoid disadvantages,Take advantage of the advantages, but sometimes it is still inevitable, and somersault. Summarizing myself, the advantages can be played well, and the disadvantages can be avoided. Therefore, I suffered some relatively big losses and suffered some relatively big setbacks. A few years ago was a big setback for me. It took me almost half a year to slowly cheer up. At that time, I didn’t estimate it in advance, and I used my disadvantages to fight for others’ strengths. I lost a piece of it, and it was a mess. Afterwards, I wrote thousands of words to analyze myself, and also wrote to my wife to reveal my soul. In the two letters, my wife used me to pull me back from depression and pessimism. What I want to express is that the objective probabilities of life, such as genetic quality, congenital conditions, etc., are difficult to change and cannot be inferred and calculated. They can only rely on their own knowledge and experience to make analysis and judgments and make estimates. Condition to measure. I sometimes feel that if there are greater failures and predicaments in the future, it is likely that the objective probability is not well grasped, and I have not learned how to know oneself and the enemy, and have not learned to use one's strengths and avoid weaknesses, and learn from each other's weaknesses. This should be something I should pay attention to in the future.

Finally, I will talk about " random sampling". I admit that random sampling has not had any actual good effect in my first half of my life, and it is almost all negative. Every time I want to take shortcuts, I want to get rich for nothing, I want to get rich quickly. Almost all ended in failure. "Random events" do occupies a large part of the probability, and it is also a more important content. However, until now, in my life, the more I take him seriously, the more he may hurt me. Random events are really tempting, and I thought about trying again, but to be honest, I really dare not try again. There is an important law of probability: small probability events cannot happen. What is a small probability event, my understanding is a random event to me.

I look forward to the fulfillment of life that I seek from the balance of subjective and objective probabilities that I understand, let waiting change from vain to preparation, let the compressed time regain meaning, and magnify the subjective probability of human life as much as possible to make life The objective probability of is more objective and suitable for me. Try to avoid random events. Let probability serve my life.