At present, my country's epidemic prevention and control is facing new situations and new tasks. On December 9, Zhong Nanshan, the recipient of the Medal of the Republic of China and an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, and two members of the team - Li Yimin, Party Secretary of the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou Medical University and Chief Physician of the Department of Critical Care Medicine, and Professor Yang Zifeng, Vice President of the Guangzhou Respiratory Health Research Institute, were interviewed by reporters in Guangzhou.
In the interview, Zhong Nanshan answered hot topics such as the pathogenicity and evolutionary trend of the virus, the safety and effectiveness of vaccination, the sequelae of new crown, and when will the peak of infection arrive.
Zhong Nanshan said that the current focus of prevention should shift from preventing infection to preventing severe illness, and strengthening COVID-19 vaccination is the next key. According to the team model, is expected to see the first wave of infection peak in Guangzhou from mid-to-late January to mid-February next year, and enter a stable stage in mid-to-late March. It is optimistic that it will return to its pre-epidemic living conditions in the first half of next year.
The following are nine judgments given by Zhong Nanshan and his team experts in the interview.
1. 99% of the infection are not severe
Zhong Nanshan said that looking back on the three years of the new crown epidemic, before the emergence of Omickron strain , the cumulative number of people infected with new crown in my country was about 100,000, and the mortality rate (deaths/confirmed people) was 4.65%. After Omickron entered China, especially since September, through the analysis of relevant data from major cities such as Guangzhou and Chengdu, it was found that the current severe disease rate is less than 1% and the mortality rate is less than 0.1%. From this point of view, Omickron's pathogenicity has decreased significantly.
"After infection with Omickron, 99% are not severe." Zhong Nanshan said that most people can improve within 5-7 days. "Don't think that they are afraid of getting the new crown, and they should not discriminate against infected people."
2. Asymptomatic infection is not a disease
Is asymptomatic a disease? Zhong Nanshan believes that "From a medical perspective, sudden acute infectious diseases, if there are no symptoms, should be said to be not a disease." In addition, he believes that in the future, the infection of the new coronavirus may be defined as a type of upper respiratory tract infection of the new coronavirus.
3. The probability of the virus's evolutionary virility weakens
Zhong Nanshan said that he had talked to pathogenic experts and believed that the future evolutionary trend of the new coronavirus will have a high probability of weakening of virility. "No one said it will definitely weaken, but we must follow the most common rules to think about problems and decisions." He added that taking the XBB.1 subtype mutant strain currently popular in Singapore as an example, it has stronger contagiousness, but weaker pathogenicity, and the mortality rate is 62% of ordinary seasonal influenza.
4. Omickron rarely causes pneumonia , and severe illness does not mean life-threatening
Li Yimin said that in this round of Guangzhou epidemic, the proportion of severe patients who are truly caused by the new coronavirus is not large, and it is mainly manifested in the aggravation of underlying diseases. Currently, pneumonia caused by Omickron infection is very rare.
Li Yimin said that severe cases of new coronary pneumonia refer to the infected person who needs to inhale oxygen, or needs to be strengthened to observe. It is not the same as the concept of "severely ill" or even "critical ill" that ordinary people understand. "Severe and critically ill may endanger life, but we will actively take measures to reduce the risk of patients' transformation from ordinary or severe to critical."
5. The domestic vaccine is no different from the imported vaccine
Zhong Nanshan said that in addition to organ transplant surgery , suffering from severe rheumatism, heart failure , tumors and other diseases, even elderly people with underlying diseases in the stable stage can get vaccinated.
Zhong Nanshan believes that compared with imported vaccines, although domestic vaccines have slightly worse effects on preventing infection, their side effects are smaller and their safety is better. Moreover, studies have shown that after receiving the three doses of the vaccine, the effect of preventing severe diseases is almost the same, whether from laboratory indicators or real-world data."For the elderly, the most important thing is not to get severe illness. Vaccination, especially with the full-course vaccine (including vaccination and enhancement injection), has a good protective effect on the elderly to prevent severe illness."
6. Sequelae is more of a subjective feeling
1Zhong Nanshan said that in medicine, there is a strict definition of sequelae, which refers to the damage caused by the disease for life. For example, polio , even if it is cured, there will be polio. Now some so-called sequelae of the new coronavirus are even more subjective feelings, such as general fatigue and brain fog, which are mainly caused by mental and psychological effects. He pointed out, "We cannot call it sequelae. At present, there has not been a case of the novel coronavirus that is particularly obvious insufficiency in the organs."
7. It is expected that it will return to its pre-epidemic living state in the first half of next year
Zhong Nanshan team member Yang Zifeng said that based on the characteristics of the Omickron mutation strain and the current vaccination status in my country, and referring to the comprehensive analysis and judgment of the situation in Hong Kong, Japan and other places, the peak infection in Guangzhou may arrive from mid-to-late January to mid-February next year. "With a series of non-drug intervention and other peaking measures, it is expected to enter a stable stage in mid-to-late March."
"Someone just asked me when I can restore to the state before 2019? My opinion is that in the first half of next year, after March, I cannot guarantee it, but the trend should be around this time." Zhong Nanshan said.
8. I don’t believe that large-scale deaths will occur
Previously, someone estimated that hundreds of thousands of people may die nationwide based on the mortality rate of the epidemic in Hong Kong. Zhong Nanshan believes that this assumption is inappropriate. "I don’t believe that this will happen."
Zhong Nanshan analyzed that when the epidemic broke out in Hong Kong this year, the full vaccination rate of the elderly over 60 years old did not exceed 20%, but the vaccination situation in the mainland is much better than that in Hong Kong May ago. As of December 8, the rate of intensified injections for elderly people over 60 years old has reached 68.86%. "Although it is not enough, it is much better than that of Hong Kong."
9. Repeated infection is likely to not occur for a period of time.
0 Academician Zhong Nanshan and his cooperative team conducted a study on 158 local infected people infected with Delta strain and 679 imported infections from abroad admitted to at in 2021. Studies have shown that people with re-positive COVID-19 infections have no risk of contagion, and their clinical symptoms have not worsened, and they do not need to receive hospitalization.
Zhong Nanshan introduced that Qatar research shows that after infection with Omickron, 78% of people will not repeatedly infection with Omickron for a considerable period of time, regardless of whether they have symptoms or not. At the same time, a study conducted in Denmark with a sample size of tens of thousands showed that as long as you get Omickron once, 98% of people can avoid the second Omickron infection. "In this sense, getting Omickron is equivalent to getting a vaccine." Zhong Nanshan emphasized, "Of course, this is not to encourage everyone to get Omickron."
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Some patients on the Internet who are infected with the new coronavirus said that their symptoms are very mild, even asymptomatic, so is it necessary for the elderly to get vaccinated? On December 10, Hubei Disease Control and Prevention’s official microscope issued a reminder:
According to existing data, the proportion of mild symptoms and asymptomatic infection caused by the Omickron mutant strain of the new coronavirus is relatively large, but it does not mean that there are no severe symptoms and deaths.
On the one hand, a large proportion of the elderly have one or more chronic diseases. After being infected with the new coronavirus, the body's immunity of the elderly has decreased and their ability to resist the virus is weak, so they face a series of problems such as higher risks, worse symptoms, and more difficult treatment, resulting in a high risk of severe illness and death;
On the other hand, the elderly have a higher proportion of underlying diseases such as hypertension and diabetes , and these underlying diseases are the risk factors that cause severe illness and death in people infected with the new coronavirus pneumonia. If you are infected with the virus, the symptoms of the original chronic disease will be more serious or more likely to have comorbidities.
Therefore, it is more necessary for the elderly to get the new coronavirus vaccine .
Source: Southern Daily, Southern+ Client, Jimu News
