We have always been the world's largest population country. From the "four million compatriots" during the Republic of China period to the breakthrough of the 1 billion population mark in 1982, the population is the basis for our country to be prosperous and strong. However, in recent years, my country's population growth rate has begun to decline, and the average age of Chinese people is getting older, and even the number is about to bid farewell to the world's number one. According to Overseas Network, UN data shows that India's population has reached 1.417.17 million in July this year, extremely close to my country's population. Considering the widening gap in population growth between the two countries, India's total population will exceed China in 2023. What is the reason why
causes my country's population to enter the turning point?
From the current perspective, India's population still maintains a growth rate of nearly 2%, with more than 20 million births each year. Moreover, the average population age is only 27 years old. In contrast, my country, the average age in 2010 was 35.7 years old, and by 2020 it had reached 38.8 years old. Last year, the national birth population was only 10.62 million, with a birth rate of 7.52‰, which is the "five consecutive decline" of the birth population since the second child was liberalized. At the same time, my country is also facing the "burden" of accelerating population aging. In 2021, the population aged 60 and above accounted for 18.9%, of which the population aged 65 and above accounted for 14.2%, and has entered a deeply aging society. From this perspective, India is still a young man, while China is already middle-aged.
To sum up, the problem before us is the population alarm sounding, and the aging population and structural imbalances simultaneously exist, and the increasingly severe situation.
First, the social pension burden has increased
The significant feature of aging is that more and more people leave the labor market. For example, people born between 1962 and 1973 have exceeded 25 million newborns every year during these ten years, with a birth rate of up to 33%. They are the first generation of baby boom in my country. Based on the retirement of men at the age of 60 and women at the age of 55, their retirement period is gradually ushering in 2022.
It would be fine if I just had to retire if I was old, but my country was facing the dilemma of no longer having a baby boom and a decrease in labor force at the age of age. Data shows that the total population born in the 2000s is only 163.3 million, which is 47 million less than that born in the 1990s, and the total number cannot be compared with those born in 1962-1973. In other words, fewer new employed people than those who retire, and the labor gap appears to be larger on the surface. However, Wang Haidong, Director of the Aging Department of the National Health Commission, pointed out that it is expected that by 2035, the elderly people over 60 in my country will exceed 400 million, accounting for more than 30%. At that time, the imbalance of job replacement will intensify, the consumption population will increase, and the pressure on pension in the entire society may increase.
Secondly, negative population growth comes ahead of schedule
negative population growth, that is, the natural population replacement level tends to be balanced. The fundamental reason is that the birth population declines. From the population data of various provinces and cities, there are 11 provinces with natural population growth, namely Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Hubei, Hebei and Shanxi. There are many economically developed cities in the Yangtze River Delta. If this trend continues, it is not ruled out that negative growth will continue to spread.
In fact, the number of births dropped to 10.62 million in 2021, directly leading to a net population growth of only 480,000 that year, reaching the lowest level in history. The most important factor is the high cost of fertility and the greater pressure of fertility.
"China Birth Cost Report 2022 Edition" shows that the cost of raising a child until he is 18 years old is 6.9 times that of per capita GDP. Specifically, my country's per capita GDP in 2021 was 81,000, 6.9 times, that is, the cost of raising a child was 558,900. The per capita disposable income of in the same period was only 35,100, which means that raising a child would cost a couple 8 years of income.
In addition, having one more child means buying one more room. According to the current average housing price, buying one more room will cost at least 400,000 yuan. Ren Zeping In previous report, it pointed out that housing, education, medical care and other costs are the "three mountains" that block the birth of babies, among which high housing prices are the top priority.
encourages having children to be serious. Hunan, Sichuan and Jiangsu start to take action. It is not a good thing that the population will continue to decrease, especially for a major producer like our country, which will bring severe tests to economic development.Externally, our economic foundation is relatively weak. After experiencing a rapid catch-up, we are now facing a shift stage from "quantity" to "quality". Industrial upgrading and technological innovation will take time. In the short term, we will also compete with Southeast Asia for mid- and low-end industries. At this time, the young population structure is still the key to our victory.
Internal, real estate will no longer be the driver, but the dozens of industries related to it are still the driving force for economic growth in the later stage. Therefore, we have always emphasized the internal circulation and the national unified market of , in order to boost consumption, and only with consumption power can there be a driving force for technological growth.
Since the country has relaxed the birth of three children, many places have introduced policies to encourage birth control, including but not limited to: extending maternity leave, adding parental leave, increasing housing purchase indicators, etc. At the same time, we strive to move away from the mountains of high housing prices and strive to solve the problem of "not daring to have children and not willing to have children".
For example, childbirth subsidy: directly receive 10,000 yuan for a third child.
In October, Hunan Changsha issued a document that families who "legally have three or more children" can receive a childcare subsidy of 10,000 yuan per child. In other words, a family can directly receive 10,000 yuan for each child born.
Although Changsha is not the first city to publicly give you a subsidy for 3 children, as early as 2021, Panzhihua, Sichuan, confirmed that household registration families with a second child or above can receive 500 yuan per month before the age of 3. Overall, a child can receive a subsidy of about 18,000 yuan; Daxinganling also Family planning 3 children will provide a one-time subsidy of 20,000 yuan per month, and a subsidy of 500 yuan will be issued before the age of 3. Although Changsha's subsidy intensity and scope are not as strong as the first two cities, this move will be representative and will be the first among the provincial capitals in the country to announce cash subsidies to have three children.
Super-large provincial capital cities like Changsha with a permanent population of 10.04 million are beginning to sit still. You can imagine how much pressure there will be in each city against the backdrop of the official announcement that the population is about to usher in negative growth. At the same time, the signal released by the birth of real money is also very obvious. In the future, not only will “get money by having children” be fulfilled in more cities, but the measures for subsequent education and seeking medical care will be continuously improved.
For example, moving away from high housing prices: combining buying a house with a third child.
is also Changsha. For local households with two or more children in accordance with the law, one house purchase indicator will be added. According to the number of minor children in the family, appropriate care is given in terms of housing type selection;
Sichuan, on October 9, the "Implementation Plan for Optimizing the Population Policy to Promote the Long-term Balanced Development of the Population", which mentioned that families with second and third children were relaxed for housing purchase qualifications, etc.;
Jiangsu, on September 21, it was clearly stated that for household registration families with second or third children, the maximum amount of provident fund loan for dual-employee and single-employee provident fund loan was adjusted to 1 million yuan and 500,000 yuan respectively.
Some people may ask, it is understandable to encourage birth and pay for money, why do you still have to tie it up with buying a house?
The reason is simple, the population and housing market are the two lifelines of urban development. In the past six months, the real estate transactions have continued to decline, and the phenomenon of land auctions has spread. All cities have great motivation to stabilize real estate. According to incomplete statistics, as of now, more than 700 regulation has been issued nationwide, which is the most frequent year in five years. However, the reality is cold and cannot stop the market's decline. It has become an option for many cities to reduce costs and stabilize confidence.
As of October 19, the interest rate of first-home mortgages in 10 cities including Shijiazhuang, Guiyang, Tianjin, Wuhan, Yichang dropped to below 4%. According to Beike , the interest rate of first-home mortgages in 103 cities in October was 4.12%.
According to the China Securities Regulatory Commission, relevant measures for "delivery of houses" in many places continue to be introduced, and special loan work is in full swing.
Therefore, the conclusion is already very obvious about the issue of "protecting the real estate market" or "protecting childbirth".
On the surface, the stability of the real estate market is related to the development of upstream and downstream industries, the urbanization process, as well as the positions of tens of millions of real estate practitioners and the family assets of homeowners, and cannot be underestimated. But in fact, the willingness to give birth is the key to productivity, long-term economic development, balancing pension pressure, soothing real estate bubble, and even affecting the rise and fall of society.
says that the long-term trend of real estate depends on population. Simply put, no matter how the housing market develops, it needs to rely on people to buy and take over to continue. The reason why the housing market was able to sing all the way in the past was closely related to the population data such as birth rate in my country.
Fangshuo has something to say. In general, a society's willingness to give birth is closely related to the development of ordinary individuals and society. Only by ensuring fertility can we touch on the essence and deep-seated problems.
The pictures used in this article are from the Internet. If there is any infringement, please contact us to delete them. The article is original by "Daily Room Sayings". Reproduction and plagiarism are strictly prohibited. If you find it, you will be investigated in depth. (Written by: Lamb Head)
