The nuances of team chemistry and year-to-year changes in player performance make almost every NBA offseason betting, but some bets are riskier than others.
The actions we collected here are all high-profile. Almost all of these may have an impact on the championship race-both this season and in the near future.
In other words, the stakes are high. With only two weeks left before the start of the 2021-22 season, let's see whose stakes look the best.
The Mavericks hired Jason Kidd as the head coach
Jason Kidd (span5_span) Jason Kidspan (span5_span) listed a long string of behaviors Including the conviction of spouse abuse in 2001, which marked the Hall of Fame point guard as a dubious head coach choice.
Although his past behavior should not be behind the scenes, he also has a record of failure as a head coach (183-190) and a 37.5 playoff win rate.
Kidd was hired as the head coach of the Dallas Mavericks. Not only is the palace conspiracy almost certain in the coaching circle, it should also bring more serious questions about his ability to lead winners.
Mavericks are not far from the abnormal work environment reported by Jon Wertheim and Jessica Luther in the 2018 Sports Illustrated report.On the court, MVP candidate Luka Doncic may be enough to ensure that Dallas wins the desired victory, thereby diverting attention from Kidd.
Great players always have a way to make their coaches look capable. If Doncic did not approve the offer, Kidd would not get the job for granted.
It is hard to imagine making such an important decision without consulting the Mavericks superstars. Out of goodwill, Kidd may have grown over the years.
Maybe he is a different person and coach, he keeps the lessons of the past in mind. However, unless he proves that the situation is different when he assumes the position of head coach for the third time-both strategically and personally-Kidd is not questionable.
Conclusion: Sell
Nuggets Michael Porter
The Denver Nuggets locked their core players with the highest level on September 27th. According to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, 's Michael Porter Jr.'s five-year renewal contract is worth between 17.2 million and 207 million US dollars, depending on the incentives.
For a 23-year-old player, this is a lot of money. He missed most of his time at and the University of Missouri and the entire rookie season because of two back operations. On the defensive end, there are no people who show much interest or sharpness. It is risky to make the most of a list of players.Because of the existence of Nikola Jokic, he will never have the ball like a top player.
However, MPJ's scoring ability is undeniable. He has the opportunity to become one of the rare high-capacity and high-efficiency generators at the level of Steven Curry and Kevin Durant. Not only because he is an excellent pitcher, his three-point shooting rate reached 44.5%, but also because he is remarkable everywhere.
Porter's basket scoring efficiency ranked 95% among forwards and 89% in the middle distance area last year. In NBA history, there are 10 seasons where players have taken at least 800 shots and the true shooting percentage exceeds 66.0%.
Seven of them were before 1991. Since then, Curry has had two such years, Porter joined the club in the 2020-21 season (and is the youngest player on the list). That is an elite company. At 6 feet 10 inches, Potter can shoot almost everyone.
Denver could have waited until this summer's restricted free agent and retained Porter by matching any offer sheet he signed with another team. But I like that the Nuggets are willing to pay high-paid talent, and Porter is undoubtedly a high-paid talent.
Conclusion: Buy
The Lakers acquire Russell Westbrook
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The goal is to win another championship.
Westbrook has played for nine NBA teams and they will not award anyone the MVP trophy like he won in the 2016-17 season. Obviously, he brought a lot of things.
Westbrook proved during the regular season that he can bring out mid-level talents through pure willpower and ruthless power. He did exactly that and won his MVP.
is ideal for those who can control the game during breaks between LeBron James and Anthony Davis . Retaining these two for the playoffs must be one of Los Angeles' goals, and Westbrook can help achieve this goal.
On a random Tuesday in January, when James and AD have a night off, send him there, and then he can beat the Sacramento Kings alone. In other words, we know that James needs to be surrounded by defense and shooting to optimize his chances of winning, while Westbrook has neither.
The opponents of the playoffs, because they have achieved good results for a long time, will ignore the Westbrook middle distance. The space needed for James and Davis will disappear, leaving two bad choices: take the ball from James and place it in Westbrook, or take Westbrook off the court during the critical playoffs. Move away.
Los Angeles will try to find a different solution, maybe it will succeed. However, when removing the most expensive offseason acquisition from the game at the most important moment is a reasonable strategic consideration, this does not bode well.
Westbrook should bring value this year,But this is not when the Lakers need it. When the playoffs started, I didn't believe he would be that helpful.
In those critical games, he is very unlikely to become a clear positive force. Russ has lost six of the past seven playoff series, and the Lakers need to win four consecutive series to win all of this.
Conclusion: Selling
The Miami Heat will ALL IN
since 2009, the Miami Heat have been preliminarily for their future since 2009. Only six first-round drafts have been played.
They dealt with two picks on draft night, and one, Precious Achiuwa, as part of the signing of the deal, 35-year-old Kyle Lowry has left.
's preference for more mature talent has paid off. The Heat have missed the playoffs only three times since 2009. It's still worth pointing out that , Bam Adebayor and Taylor Harrow are the only first-round draft picks for the Heat.
Few organizations accept the YOLO mentality to this extent. This was true before Miami joined Lowry, and he renewed his contract with Jimmy Butler. He will be in the 2025-26 season, that is, he will be 36 The year-old season paid 52.4 million U.S. dollars and signed a 36-year-old player.
PJ Tucker played the starting role.The Heat are going all out to use the experience of the veteran when trying to return to the Finals, and this method increases the risk of injury and decline. The lack of depth in the roster will only exacerbate concerns related to the important roles of older players.
If something goes wrong, or if the Heat’s veterans take frequent breaks, then the auxiliary actors will not be able to take on the heavy tasks. Cristiano Ronaldo is the only upper reserve team.
With the Brooklyn Nets and the Milwaukee Bucks at the top of the conference, it seems unwise to adopt such a focus on the moment, let alone the rising Atlanta Hawks , potentially dangerous The Philadelphia 76ers, the gritty New York Knicks, and the overlooked Boston Celtics are the obstacles in the East.
At the same time, these teams are all affected by the same whims of Miami. If one or more of the Heat’s top competitors have suffered consecutive dooms and if unfortunately they keep their distance from South Beach, then this aging team has a chance to make a fortune in the playoffs.
Adebayor 's status as a possible future NBA player is a key guarantee. With him by his side, Miami's future will never be completely desperate-even if Lowry, Butler and Tucker are all disappointing.
Finally, the Heat are doing what they have done for years: trust their infrastructure, rely on known goods, and let the future solve it by itself.
In a league full of five-year plans and growing first-round picks, Miami's approach is refreshing. It may even be effective.If you bet on the trio against age with sheer willpower, Lowry, Butler and Tucker are solid choices.
Conclusion: Buying
The Warriors did not reach an immediate win deal
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. The Golden State Warriors did not make the playoffs for two consecutive years, and their team idol Stephen Curry entered his 33-year-old season.
's motivation to go all out by trading young players and future draft picks is obvious: give Stephen a win on the current roster to chase another championship.
Curry’s joy in franchising is an important related consideration. Dubs gained a firm foothold, mainly because no trade could clearly make them the title. This is the right decision. The Golden State Warriors have a subtle competitive advantage, and their actions during the offseason have created a true identity.
Dubbs hit the ball all over the floor, played very small for most of the game, and made 69 ridiculous shots in their first preseason Three-pointer. This will be a bit less than the regular season long-distance attempt record, and the Warriors did it without Klay Thompson .
Do you think maybe one of the greatest shooters of all time. He happens to have the most itchy trigger finger in the league. If he participates, will his total score increase?
The young Golden State Warriors were retained because they did not make a deal - Jordan Poole, James Wiseman, Jonathan Cuminga and Moses Moody - gave it It is a bridge to the future.
, especially Poole, will explode this season and compete for the sixth man of the year... As long as Thompson recovers from his Achilles tendon injury, he will be eliminated from the first team. If you are not in the tide of Poole, please board the ship immediately before the space runs out.
The Warriors are basically pulling a San Antonio Spurs. They believe that their talents and culture are strong enough to win now, and they greedily position themselves to continue winning after this wave of top stars ages.
Paradoxically, conservative strategies (rather than trading young people) are bold, but Dubbs clearly believes they are good enough to compete now and in the future without taking action. You must respect their faith.
Conclusion: Buy
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