text / Ding Shuhang
[Direct News Press] As Biden's appointment date approaches, what kind of national security and diplomatic strategies the Biden administration will adopt has attracted great attention from the outside world. Z1z has entered the Biden National Security Advisory Team, the retired US General McChrystal recently declared that the speed of China's military strength development is , the United States must increase investment in military and regional allies. McChrystal also exaggerated the so-called "China threat theory", saying that as soon as he wakes up, mainland China has already "raw rice and cooked rice" on the Taiwan issue and unified Taiwan.
During the Obama administration, McChrystal was forced to resign because of his rude words to Biden. Now he is able to return to the Biden national security advisory team. Some analysts have indicated that this shows that Biden and him have released their previous suspicions. Tian Shichen, vice president of Guoguan think tank and retired navy colonel, said in an interview with reporters from Shenzhen Satellite TV & Zhizhi that Z1z's return to the back of the Biden team this time is more from the perspective of "military security and national defense security". In consideration, McChrystal can provide more professional advice at the level of military operations.
McChrystal specifically emphasized the Taiwan issue this time. Does the Biden administration want to gather allies in Asia to deter China? Tian Shichen said that whether it is a campaign speech or a series of interviews for , Biden has made it clear that his focus after taking office is to strengthen the coordination of partnerships with allies. There is no doubt about this.
In addition, the US Department of Defense issued the first "Guidelines for the Development of Alliances and Partnerships" in early October. The main point of the document is: In the era of great power competition, it is necessary for the United States to consolidate and strengthen its alliance and partnership network on a global scale. Tian Shichen believes that Biden's ideas are completely consistent with the spirit of this document, and the Biden administration will continue this document.
△Vice President of Guoguan Think Tank and retired Navy Colonel Tian Shichen
McCristal returned to the national security advisory team More from a military security perspective
Shenzhen Satellite TV & direct news reporter Ding Shuhang: McCristal is now back behind the Biden team What are the reasons and considerations? What role does he play in the Biden team now?
Vice President of National Outlook Think Tank and retired Navy Colonel Tian Shichen: It is said that when McChrystal was fired, Obama was actually very entangled. In some of his works, Obama also specifically mentioned his entanglement at the time, including defense at the time. Secretary Gates is still very sure of McChrystal, his ability should be no problem.
He was able to return to the Biden team, on the one hand, there were some flaws and problems in the resignation incident at that time. On the other hand, McChrystal has already shown his favor to Biden. He made it clear that he supported Biden very early in the interview.
So I think he may have been criticizing Biden before, and the two of them formed Liangzi, which was interpreted by various parties, but in fact there should be no core conflict between the two. His return is a normal return.
So what role does he play? Judging from his background, he is an army officer, especially as the commander of special forces. I think it may be more from the perspective of military security and national defense security, rather than from a policy perspective. . What's more, he can provide his own professional advice at the level of military operations. In addition, according to the "revolving door" system of the United States, will rotate in after coming out. This is also a normal phenomenon, and there is no special consideration.
The Biden government will continue to play the "fuzzy card" in Taiwan.
Shenzhen Satellite TV & Direct News reporter Ding Shuhang: this time McChrystal specifically emphasized the Taiwan issue and said he was worried about China's "raw rice and mature rice." Why does he have such a conjecture? Is there a signal behind that the United States wants to gather allies in Asia to deter China?
Guoguan Think Tank Vice President and retired Navy Colonel Tian Shichen: I will answer your question first. In fact, this is already an established strategy, and it must be done. The US Department of Defense's strategic document has been published. Second, in fact, whether it is a campaign speech or a series of interviews, Biden has made it clear that his main focus after taking office is to strengthen this coordination of partnership with allies, and according to the US strategic document, he believes that his allies’ Relationship, for himIt is a combat force with asymmetric superiority. He regards this high status. So on this point, he must be very clear and will strengthen his efforts in this regard.
Regarding the specific Taiwan issue, according to my understanding, McChrystal's idea is that on the one hand it sees the increase in the mainland's strength, on the other hand, as a security consideration, it is normal. But I think his basic policy is to continue to play the "fuzzy card" in Taiwan. There will be no major adjustments. Whether it is some of Biden’s defense advisers or some lawmakers, they also explicitly call this policy. "Porcupine" means to enhance Taiwan's defense capabilities.
Policy on China Biden government will have great inheritance
Shenzhen Satellite TV & direct news reporter Ding Shuhang: Biden has not yet taken office, and members of the National Security team have already made such a voice. Can it be regarded as a signal that the Biden team has begun to gradually reveal its position on China? Z3z
Guoguan Think Tank Vice President and retired Navy Colonel Tian Shichen: is a government, and its final policy orientation requires some documents to be issued. For some formal speeches, such as major strategic adjustments, it will use a field to cooperate with a formal statement. Under such circumstances, it is hard to say that Biden's policy is qualitative, but at the same time we have also seen that in terms of China policy, it is actually inherited and has great continuity. In the Trump era, he continued the defense policy of the Obama era in many cases, so in this regard, I think the Biden administration will also have a lot of this inheritance. And this aspect is a cross-party consensus.
The United States will coordinate military visits by senior leaders
Shenzhen Satellite TV & direct news reporter Ding Shuhang: Previously, the US Department of Defense issued the first "Guidelines for the Development of Alliances and Partnerships." You have analyzed that this report has obvious implications for China. , But currently there is less attention to it in policy analysis in China. I would like to ask you to analyze, what are the main points of this guide worthy of our attention?
Guoguan think tank vice president and retired navy colonel Tian Shichen: I think this guide points out 4 core pillars, including arms sales, including our Chinese term "foreign training", etc., but the core point is senior leadership Human visits are the military diplomacy of senior leaders. I think we should pay particular attention to this. The reason why
has to make this adjustment is because it considers that the previous high-level contacts are random.
Now it needs to establish a database specifically to integrate these different levels, whether it is the Ministry of National Defense or military-civilian leadership, and coordinate the high-level exchanges of these people. It is to carry out such high-level exchanges for the purpose of diplomacy. The pressure on us is very high. It is equivalent to making it plain. Originally, whoever wants to go can go wherever he wants. Now there is a coordinated and planned outbound visit to China of high-level military generals. This requires our attention.
Frankly speaking, when I was in the foreign affairs department, sometimes our visits were visits of care and treatment, but how to strengthen planning and pertinence to make the exchanges of senior military generals more purposeful? This is also We should learn from the US military.
The Biden government will continue the "Guidelines for the Development of Alliances and Partnerships"
Shenzhen Satellite TV & direct news reporter Ding Shuhang: This guide was released during Esper’s tenure. In your opinion, in Biden’s time, this report How influential is it? In what ways should China prepare for it?
Guoguan Think Tank Vice President and retired Navy Colonel Tian Shichen: The document will definitely continue, because it itself, like what I just said, is completely consistent with Biden’s ruling philosophy, that is, Biden was meant to strengthen the allies. This coordination is completely consistent with the spirit of this document. So I don't think he will make major adjustments in this regard, and will stick to this document.
And there is another factor. This document is led by Esper, and Esper is in conflict with Trump. So from the first point of view, after Biden came to power, there must be a process of "de-Trumping". Then Biden wants to "de-Trump", precisely because this document does not belong to Trump. thing. From this point of view, the Biden administration will also inherit.
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