Now, this conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which everyone in the world is paying attention to, has been going on for more than 9 months. Whether you choose to believe it or blindfold it or not: the current situation on the battlefield has undergone major and profound changes.
This conflict has changed from the Russian army to the fact that the Ukrainian army now has a comprehensive advantage. This should be an undisputed fact.
Although Lao Pu drove to Crimea Bridge in the past two days and declared his strength. But Ukraine seems to have directly bombed the Russian mainland in the past two days. From this point of view, Ukraine did not take Lao Pu's strength seriously at all, which is indeed a bit embarrassing for Lao Pu.
To be honest, until now, Russia has faced three unsolvable core problems:
First, Ukraine has adopted a state of resolute non-negotiation and resolute fight to the end; Russia is almost unable to save the four states in the east of Ukraine;
Second, there are serious problems in the equipment, logistics, combat willpower of front-line soldiers, and combat willpower of rear-line people. Those who respect the facts should be able to see these points;
Third, Russia has almost no cards to play, such as: the lack of international support, continuous sanctions and blockades, and the failure of energy cards, etc. On the other hand, Ukraine received a lot of assistance from Western countries when winter arrived.
Now the only trump card that Russia can play is nuclear weapon , but this thing is actually backfiring itself while blowing up the other side. Recently, it seems that Russia has clearly announced that it will not use nuclear weapons. It seems that there are still people within Russia who understand it.
The recent attitude and current situation of Russia also illustrate this issue, such as: actively calling for negotiations, starting to supply gas to Europe, declaring that the four states in eastern Ukraine are "affiliated territory", and in addition, there are insufficient internal weapons to purchase weapons everywhere, etc.
I still say the same thing, the position cannot determine the facts, war is a thorough materialistic game - Russia now has almost no chance of winning. Now it's enough to look at a little bit, that is: how much will Russia lose.
Let me briefly analyze: How should this conflict end and what will the final result be?
First of all, I still have to say that this conflict is still continuing and any possibility will happen. It is a bit too early to predict all the results. However, there are a few things that can be predicted. Let me briefly talk about my personal opinion.
The first point is: Ukraine will not be in a truce if it fails to achieve its goal.
Ukraine has suffered huge losses now, and the battle has been fought for more than 9 months. For Ukraine, everything that should be paid is paid, and what should be lost is also lost. I think: Ukraine will continue to fight, anyway, there are the United States and NATO paying orders and active support behind it.
Ukrainians should know a fact deeply: if they do not completely defeat Russia this time, they will be a stagnant existence in the future. In 2014, Russia took Crimea, but just eight years later, the Russians were coming to the four eastern states of Wudong. Let me ask, if you are Ukrainian, will you compromise this time? Obviously not.
The second point is: the bottom line of the Russians should not be the four states in the east of Wu and Crimea
Now Russia has begun to evacuate personnel, institutions and assets from the four states in the east of Wu and Ukraine. In this way, Russia should also know that it is a bit difficult to completely protect the four states in Wudong, and it should be the worst plan - if it cannot be kept.
In the past two days, Lao Pu ran to the Crimea Bridge to "drive", and actually revealed two signals clearly:
First, Lao Pu was not injured and his status in the country is still relatively stable.
Another signal is very clear: Crimea is Russia's bottom line and Russia's last position.
I think: keeping Crimea should be Russia's last bottom line and principled position. Just imagine, after so long a war, people died, money was spent, international sanctions were obtained, and living space was compressed again. If even Crimea is lost in the end, then Russia probably has no future.
The third point is: NATO and the United States will continue to firmly support Ukraine's
I have analyzed it a long time ago that in this Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Americans will spare no effort and appropriately support Ukrainian. The Americans' mentality is very simple: they are very afraid that Russia and Ukraine will stop fighting and peace talks, so they must actively support the continued fight.
This will maximize the interests of Americans. For example, it can completely weaken Russia's strength, further control Europe, and resell resources. By the way, it can also show its strength and credibility, which is also important for strengthening the confidence of the younger brothers, etc.
In addition to the United States, those who want Ukraine to continue to fight should be Eastern European countries, such as: The Three Baltics , Polish , Finland , etc. There is no need to analyze this in detail in
. Anyway, everyone understands the principle of cold teeth when the lips die. If Russia wins this time, then they may become the next target.
In addition, France and Germany have a bit complicated mentality. If you continue to support Ukraine, your family's economy will suffer losses and problems. But it is not possible to not support it. Once it is shaken, it will inevitably be abandoned by the rest of Europe. It will be impossible to dominate Europe in the future.
These countries will continue to support Ukraine in the midst of wandering and swaying. This should be called: the difference between the two sides is the least. However, these countries will spare no effort behind the scenes to promote peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The key issue now is: the conditions for negotiations between the two sides are different.
After analyzing the attitudes, mentality and current situation of the parties participating in the war, what will be the final result of this conflict?
Personally, I feel that Russia has almost no chance of winning completely, and the four states in the east of Ukraine are basically unable to be saved. It remains to be seen whether Crimea can hold on.
Of course, if there is a big country that suddenly stands firmly on Russia's side to support Russia, it is hard to say, but the probability of this situation happening at present is almost zero.
Once Russia loses, the four states in the east of Wudong will not be defended, if even Crimea is lost. Then a very bad situation will occur, and the following three problems will likely occur:
First, the economy collapses, the loss of international influence, and the immediate decline of a third-rate country in the world, etc.
Second, according to historical circumstances, once Russia's foreign war completely fails, major changes should occur within it, such as: the failure of in the first battle of directly led to the destruction of the Tsar. I won’t talk about the specifics. Anyway, some people should be doomed, and they always have to find a vent for resentment of failure.
Third, the worst case is that Russia is facing a split again. After all, many internal conflicts are still very large, such as the Chechnya issue.
This is more troublesome. It is not impossible for the Russian part to turn to the West after the division. I think we should be fully prepared. Please don’t think that this situation is impossible. At present, the probability is getting bigger and bigger.
If Ukraine takes back the four eastern prefectures of Ukraine and even Crimea, it should be a big winner. It is basically no big problem to join EU and join NATO. Perhaps after the economy is rebuilt, life will get better and better.
I firmly believe that Ukraine has no room for compromise and no need for compromise in the recapture of the four eastern Ukrainian states. Anyway, this is already the case, and there is support from NATO and the United States behind it. It is best to seize this rare window to win. There is still room for negotiation on the Crimea issue.
By the way: Many people are firmly supporting Russia. The reason is that Russia has lost, and it is difficult for us to do so. In fact, this matter is not subject to personal willpower. You either go on now or you can only wait and see.
Finally, I want to say that Russia should actively find a plan for a ceasefire and the bottom line for compromise between the two sides. If I keep fighting, I feel that Russia has fallen into the pit dug by the Americans, and if I am not careful, I will have unexpected and serious consequences.
By the way, I would like to say to some people in Russia: I will pay it back sooner or later when I come out. This time it should be the time to pay off my debts.
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