Military industry has been a scumbag industry for many years, but since last year, the prosperity has improved significantly, and many companies have finally begun to release profits . The main logic is to put it in one sentence: long-term policy escort and mid-term performance is determined.
As for how long this lasts, we will not expand on it for the time being. At least there is no problem during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The mid-term performance is very certain, because the OEM has already had large prepayments and orders are highly determined. The entire military industry is no longer the confused state of opaque information and uncertain performance.
Like other manufacturing industries, military industry also has an upstream-midstream-downstream, and the prosperity has a transmission process.
June 2020 to March 2021 are the first round of orders, month-on-month growth stage. The reason is that some downstream manufacturers (such as microwave components, etc.) capacity utilization rate climbed to 100%
According to the pace of expansion, a considerable number of military enterprises will be put into production around Q1 2022, and then according to the 3-6-month delivery cycle of passive components, it is expected that the next November to December will be a new round of stocking cycle for midstream manufacturers.
The industry comparative advantages of military industry stocks are very obvious. One is that they are not afraid of poor economic data, and the second is that they are not afraid of power limits. The second is that the entry threshold is high. Many sub-industry only have one player who makes money while lying down.
For example, Fushun Special Steel , which makes high-temperature alloys, it is impossible for a second company to do this in three years, so the valuation of other steel stocks is 30 to 40 times.
For example, forged AVIC Heavy Machinery , carbon fiber processing, and Tsinghua Guowei , which is a military chip. There is nothing to say about the competitive landscape, but the performance depends on the production capacity shooting.
attached with sub-industry and corresponding targets:
1. Missile industry chain
(I) Missile whole aircraft:
Hongdu Aviation, a very scarce missile assembly listed company.
(II) Missile Electronics:
1, Unigroup Guowei, some core chips are located in the company.
2, Zhenhua Technology , a domestic military electronics base with strong expansion capabilities.
3, aerospace electrical appliances, core supplier of connectors in the missile field.
4. Lightning Micropower, a core supplier of domestic missile-loaded active phased array microsystems.
(III) Missile materials:
1, Fushun special steel, high-strength steel (used for missile shells) The domestic aerospace field market share is 95%.
2. Philippe is the leading supplier of quartz fiber in the domestic aerospace field.
2. Aero engine
1. Fushun Special Steel: deformation high-temperature alloy accounts for more than 80% of the domestic aerospace market, and is a core positioning enterprise.
2, Aero Engine Power : the only platform for the final assembly and listing of domestic aircraft engines.
3. Gangyan Gaona: a manufacturer with strong R&D strength of high-temperature alloys backed by the Steel Research Institute and gradually realizing the industrialization logic.
4, Tunan Co., Ltd.: a representative manufacturer of precision casting, and the large single product of precision casting receiver is very excellent.
5, Yingliu shares : A precision casting manufacturer with two major paths in global commercial and two military machines and two major paths in domestic military machines.
7. Aerospace Engineering Control: a monopoly enterprise of domestic military aviation engine control system.
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3. Military aircraft
(I) OEMs with monopoly industrial status:
1. AVIC Shenfei, my country's only listed company for fighter aircraft assembly;
2. AVIC West Flight, my country's only listed company for military large aircraft assembly;
3. Hongdu Aviation, my country's only listed company for trainer aircraft + missile assembly;
4. Zhongzhi Shares, my country's only listed platform for military helicopter .
(II) Core positioning link:
1, AVIC High-Tech, a domestic military aircraft carbon fiber prepreg core positioning company;
2, Western Superconductor, a core supplier of advanced fighter titanium materials;
3, AVIC Heavy Machinery, a leading enterprise in domestic aerospace and aerospace forging;
4, AVIC Mechanical and Electrical, a leading enterprise in domestic aerospace and electromechanical systems;
5, AVIC Electronics, a leading enterprise in domestic aerospace and electromechanical systems.
4. Information
(I) Military communication field:
Shanghai Hanxun, a core supplier of 4G equipment on the military communication track.
(II) electronic countermeasures field:
1, Mengsheng Electronics, core supplier of electronic countermeasures;
2, Quanxin Co., Ltd., main supplier of aerospace cables.
(III) Military electronics field:
1, Unigroup Guowei, a core positioning enterprise for domestic special chips;
2, Zhenhua Technology, a domestic military electronics main force with strong expansion capabilities.
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