It is said that "the dragon does not live with the snake, and the phoenix dances differently", but the international trend of is vast, and it is difficult to achieve something "single-handedly". The top 4 of html, such as the United States, also needs NATO and EU as wings; China "not aligned" is also inseparable from the help of the brothers of Asia, Africa and Latin America. Without Zhang Liang , Xiao He , Han Xin , Liu Bang is just a Sishui pavilion leader; without Guan Yu , Zhang Fei , Zhuge , Liu Bei can only continue to weave shoes and sell shoes. Therefore, whether it is an individual or a country, it must have its own power and team, but now Russia is trapped in unprecedented "lost".
According to Observer Network on November 16, the G20 summit hosted by Indonesian was held less than a day. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov , who came to attend the meeting instead of Putin , decided to end his trip early and "take a special plane to return to Russia." Why didn’t Lavrov wait for the end of the G20 summit before leaving? It’s already here, and it’s not a bad day? The reason is very simple, that is, Russia was "deeply isolated" at the G20 summit, which can be said to be very embarrassing and embarrassing. According to a report by Global Network html on 614, although Putin has given up attending the conference, Western countries , represented by the United States and Europe, still do not intend to let Russia go during the summit.
Some sources said that the EU and the UK plan to "confront" Lavrov during the summit and "do everything possible" to isolate Russia. For example, they persuade other countries to "not meet" Lavrov or any other Russian delegation members, and Western countries are even preparing to "collectively exit" when Lavrov's speech in protest. By the time Lavrov "returned to China early", except for Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Lavrov did not seem to have had "meeting" or "meeting" with government personnel from any country during the G20 period, which is "very rare".
At the same time, according to the Phoenix.com 17 report, during the G20, leaders of South Africa, Argentina, South Korea, Senegal , Netherlands , Spain, Australia and other countries were "queuing" to meet with the head of state of China, and even the Prime Minister of Canada squeezed in to have a "short conversation" with the Chinese leaders. is in sharp contrast with China's "make good relationships widely", but the Russian delegation is "cold and deserted". Western countries are still planning how to plot against Lavrov and make Russia "make a fool". Sometimes it was revealed that Lavrov was "hospitalized for treatment" and sometimes it was pointed out that Lavrov "using an Apple phone."
It can be said that except for China's "equal treatment" against Russia (the leader did not meet, the foreign minister was the foreign minister), other countries either "around the road" or "have malice", or even "addressing the insult" . In international occasions, fighting nation has never been so "lonely". Under such circumstances, it was meaningless for Lavrov to stay. finally chose to "return to China early". As it turned out, as we pointed out before, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia's international status "remarkably declined". Even Putin himself gradually changed from "everyone is loved" to "unpopular person".
The reason needs no more, it is mainly two aspects. On the one hand, Putin sent troops to Ukraine, which does lack "sufficient moral support". Although Lavrov was defending Russia before returning to China, claiming that sending troops to Ukraine was "not invading", but to deal with military threats on the Russian-Ukraine border and to protect Russia's "legitimate security interests", how should we explain the act of Russia instigating Ukraine's domestic independence and even "incorporating" it into the Russian Federation? You should know that at the beginning of the war, Putin kept saying that Russia had "no ambitions" for Ukraine's territory.
On the other hand, it was also because the Russian army was "defeated" and could not defeat the Ukrainian army. originally had nothing to do with "lack of morality". After all, "power is axiom", "truth is only within the range of cannons". As long as the Russian army wins, everything is easy to say, but Russia cannot defeat Ukraine for a long time and is still facing the dilemma of being "reversely pushed" by the Ukrainian army. It would be strange if the international status does not decline. If you have morality but lose, others will sympathize with you; if you have no morality and lose, what should the international community think of you? It's like Brother Long was "counter-killed", without sympathy, without mercy, and without support.
Although Russia now does not have the danger of "destroying the country", it has fallen into a long-term "war trap" and a long-term "strategic dilemma". We have repeatedly said that once Russia falls into a "protracted war", the consequences will be "unbelievable". Putin is "betting on the national destiny", this is not a "hindsight". This is what he said on the second day of the war. At that time, many people thought that the Russian army would "fight quickly and decide quickly", and even "kill Huaxiong with warm wine in ". How long will the Russian-Ukrainian conflict last? We still say the same thing, "The person who tied the bell must be untied." This depends entirely on the attitude of the United States, , and the attitude of the United States depends entirely on "how much concessions" Putin can make.
Recently, Polish was attacked by missile . Although "after investigation", the United States believes that this may be a missile from Ukraine, not from Russia. , for Russia, it is a "knocking the mountain and shocking tiger". NATO may participate in the war, and the excuse is very easy to find. Besides, even if NATO does not participate in the war, as long as Putin can force "not to dare to use nuclear weapons ", Russia will be "dragged to death by fat and thin", and eventually "the country will not be national." Therefore, the situation is extremely unfavorable to Russia. The current situation is that both Russia and Ukraine are engaged in a "Patriotic War".
It depends on how the people who are eating melons look at it. Looking at the small point, just looking at the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, then Ukraine is fighting the "Patriotic War"; but if we look at it from the big point and from the perspective of global game, it is Russia fighting the "Patriotic War". Ukraine is just a "chess piece" and a cannon fodder. Can Putin win this "Patriotic War"? Basically, it can be said that it is very difficult and the hope for is very slim, because first of all, the Russian army's conventional force can no longer defeat Ukraine, and secondly, Putin dares not use nuclear weapon . Once nuclear weapons are used to unravel, NATO will participate in the war, and Russia will become a "global public enemy."
drag down? It is not a solution to drag on it, because as the host of Russian state TV station said, Russia's opponents faced by it account for 50% of the world's GDP, while Russia's GDP is only 1.47 trillion US dollars, which is similar to Guangdong Province, and only a fraction of the United States (6.3%). It fights a protracted war with the United States, NATO, and the West. That is "beggars compete with the dragon king" and "the birthday boy hangs himself - he is afraid of his life being long." Therefore, our article in mid-October pointed out that Putin should be "willing to accept the loss" and "receiving the loss" and not falling deeper and losing to "lost all".
Now Putin has finally decided to "unconditional peace talks". Here he said "unconditional peace seeking", but the United States and Ukraine "have offered" high prices. Before returning to China, Foreign Minister Lavrov was still angrily criticizing the conditions proposed by Zelensky for being "unacceptable". What request did he make? 1. All Ukrainian territory must be returned; 2. Russia pays war reparations to Ukraine; 3. It is necessary to punish Russian "war criminals"; 4. Russia must guarantee Ukraine that "there will never be a next time." It’s humiliating. Russia really cannot agree to such a condition. If it agrees, it will be shameless to come out and make a fuss in the future.
Putin has only two choices, "continue to fight" or "continue to talk". continues to fight. The West doesn't matter. As Putin said, the United States wants to "fight to Russia until there is only the last Ukrainian". There are still tens of millions of people in Ukraine. What's more, mercenaries from all over the world are also helping the Ukrainian army. Recently Putin has also begun to recruit "international volunteer troops", but the key is, can Russia "provides money"? Therefore, if we continue to fight, there is no benefit for Russia. It is just "wasting national strength". It is just to continue to help the United States incorporate Europe, and the United States is too happy.
"continue to talk", or "fight and talk", and finally end the war with a decent end, Putin must come up with the conditions to make the United States "satisfied". Putin has two choices: or Putin makes "major concessions" to the United States in terms of nuclear weapons and strategy, such as giving up Syria , unilaterally reducing strategic weapons , and accepting verification from the United States, etc.; or Putin learns from India, the United States once pressured India to condemn and sanctions against Russia, but Indian Defense Minister Singh said, "It is impossible to anti-Russia, and there is no problem to anti-China." If Putin can turn to the United States and "contain" China with the United States, then he will "pay less."
In fact, what the United States wants most is the second point, that is, "forcing Russia to fight against China". This is the "ideal goal" of Biden's , and we pointed out this point last year. In June 2021, the United States and Russia held a summit of heads of state. Biden said that China was already very strong. He reminded Putin whether Russia should increase its dependence on China, and clearly stated that the United States and Russia have "opportunities to significantly improve relations", which will be tested "half a year to a year later." Half a year later, the Ukrainian crisis broke out, and Putin had to make a choice, either Ukraine joined NATO or "stood China" with the United States.
Putin refused to do multiple-choice questions. He planned to "tear up" the test questions and decided to send troops to Ukraine. Ukraine no longer exists. How can he join NATO? As a result, he fell into a strategic trap set by the United States. was abused to the point of being completely abused. Now the "test questions" are still there. Putin still has to do the "multiple-choice questions". Should he sacrifice Russia's national interests or "back-prick" China? Always satisfy the United States a little bit, right? If Putin still "drags", he can afford to drag, but Russia can't. What's more, China has "make peace" with the United States. According to our statement, or suggestion, China should "not fight, seek development, and not change color."
China has no choice but to do so. Russia is "defeated". The balance of global game has been broken. China can only "fight according to the opportunity". can't watch Titanic hit the iceberg, and stay on the ship without moving, right? Therefore, it is our previous conclusion that Putin "should not" send troops to Ukraine. This move not only failed to make Russia safer, but also made Russia more dangerous and also implicated its allies.
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