"Small motorcycles" have become a big climate in Ukraine. Zelensky claims that 40% of Ukrainian power facilities have been hit, which is probably not an exaggeration. But what is the use of cruise missiles is still a question of endless debate.

"Small Motorcycle" has become a big climate in Ukraine. Zelensky claims that 40% of Ukrainian power facilities have been hit, which is probably not an exaggeration. But what is the use of cruise missile ? It is still a question of endless debate.

In fact, cruise missiles are the same as missile , and they are diverse and cannot be said in a general way. As small as individual-level cruise missiles (several kilograms), such as the US "Switchblade 300"; as large as Iran's "Witness-136" that has made Ukraine so chaotic. In principle, larger cruise missiles are entirely possible.

single-level patrol missile missile detection and attack are integrated, and may replace the role of mortar in the infantry team. This is another topic. Larger cruise missiles (ten kilograms) can supplement anti-tank missile and breaking barriers. The purpose of these cruise missiles is relatively clear. What is not clear is what is the use of "Witness-136" to strike cruise missiles in the war zone with a range of hundreds of kilograms, a range of thousands of kilometers or even further. The biggest feature of the cruise missile is:

1. It is relatively accurate and can reach the meter level. After all, it is guided. It is generally satellite guided

2. It has moderate power. The warhead of "Witness-136" is about 50 kilograms, which is comparable to the typical 155mm shell. It is low cost. "Witness-136" is said to be only 20,000 US dollars per. It is generally believed that if it is put into China, it is safe to make a profit of

4. The speed is low, generally not exceeding 200 km/h, and some are even lower. BMW has struggled to catch up with

5. The height is low, generally not exceeding a few hundred meters. The final attack stage may be reduced to 100 meters. The larger, faster and higher performance cruise missiles have no technical barriers, but they are very close to the conventional cruise missile . If the low-cost characteristics are lost, it will lack meaning. The range of JASSM-ER is nearly 1,000 kilometers, with a unit price of about US$900,000; the "Tomahawk" Block IV has a range of 1,600 kilometers, with a unit price of about US$2 million. Of course, regular cruise missiles are much more powerful, with a typical warhead of 450-500 kg.

But if the cost control is solved, take China as an example, 1000 kilometers of range, 50 kilogram warhead, satellite guidance (accuracy 5 meters), speed 200 kilometers per hour, and cruise altitude 500-1000 meters. If you relax, the unit price will be controlled below 100,000-200,000 yuan. If you make 50,000 yuan, it will be 5-10 billion yuan. China's national defense budget in 2022 is 1.450 billion (central level, the total number of national defense allocations of National People's Congress is 1.476 billion. I don't know what the difference is), an increase of less than five percent, which can be generally considered negligible.

50,000 cruise missiles are equivalent to 50,000 155mm shells in power. During the Ukrainian War, the Russian army's smashing was too perverted. The Ukrainian army had 3,000-6,000 rounds per day in , Donbas , and 50,000 rounds could be smashed for more than ten days. The difference is that the Russian and Ukrainian armies are sprinkling water. If 100 shells are smashed, 5 of them are hitting, the hit rate is very high. Not to mention 50,000 cruise missiles, 25,000 shots hit the target even if they have 10% mechanical failure rate, 10% guidance failure efficiency, and 30% intercepted. All 25,000 155mm shells hit the target, which is a big deal.

cruise missiles are not a replacement for cruise missiles, they are just supplements. The key target of true tight defense still depends on conventional cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, , hypersonic missiles, , and gliding guided bombs. But after the door was smashed open, there were still many places with high importance but lax defense, which was the most powerful place for cruise missiles. Interestingly, there are many such goals on the battlefield.

1,000 kilometers of range can be launched from far-reaching mainland or outside the two ends of the front line that are relatively far away from the front line arc, and does not occupy the area directly facing the front line. There will definitely be busy during the war and there will be no trouble. The 50 kg warhead is equivalent to a 155mm howitzer shell, and ordinary targets are enough.

What are the 50,000 cruise missiles for? Mainly targeting secondary targets with large numbers and weak defense.

Direct military targets, including barracks (barracks, general facilities in the camp), military warehouses, maintenance, logistics facilities, known outposts, fortifications, positions, and known fixed equipment, all of which are targets. The first wave of strikes such as

Air Force Base, Military Port , air defense positions depend on missiles. After the tooth is drawn, you can use patrol missiles to maintain and expand the results of the battle. Fighting some from time to time, maintain the craters, and destroy emergency repairs are very useful. Thirty or fifty pieces are sprinkled on the track every day, which is enough to continuously block the track.

There are more non-direct military targets, which is also a greater role for cruise missiles. The cruise missile has a slow speed and low penetration capability, which is not very suitable for high protection and time-sensitive targets. Those are left to missiles and airdrop guided bombs. However, a large number of indirect military targets are fixed, weak defense, and scattered, and the importance is still very high, affecting the opponent's overall combat capability.

communication facilities are among the first, including fiber switching station, mobile base station, submarine cable shore point, satellite ground station (including Starlink ground station), and data center.

Electricity and urban public facilities cannot be spared, including community gas stations, substations, gas supply stations, water supply stations, and oil depots, water plants, natural gas storage tanks, power plants, and refining plants.

Transportation facilities themselves are too large, and cruise missiles may not necessarily be able to move, but airports, docks, station oil depots, substations, water supply stations, control rooms, etc. are important goals. The strong main bridges and interchanges are left to missiles and guided bombs and to attack. The less solid secondary bridges and interchanges are also targets for patrol missiles. It is also necessary to dig a few pits from time to time on important urban and rural roads to block traffic.

Some governments and livelihood facilities also need to be cracked down on and destroy people's hearts and morale, such as township offices, police stations, fire brigades, radio stations, and media centers.

again: patrol missiles are just a supplement to missiles, long-range fires, and guided bombs. The first wave of attacking air defense , command centers, airports, and military ports still depends on the "regular army".

If in the Taiwan Strait War, after missiles, long-range fire, and air strikes on the first day, three or five thousand patrol missiles will be released, mainly indirect military facilities, with the main purpose of destroying the hearts of the people; in the next few days, thousands of them will be turned to direct military targets such as barracks, positions, logistics, warehouse facilities, etc., to weaken the other party's deployment and mobilization, and to re-launch more non-direct military targets. It will take less than half of it in ten days, which is enough to fight for at least 20 days. Can Taiwan last for 20 days if it goes through this?

At the same time, the landing forces remained highly prepared and landed on the island as soon as the Taiwan military showed signs of collapse, but the main force of the sea and air was ready to fight against the US-Japan interference. How about

like this? It not only puts the greatest pressure on Taiwan, but also concentrates its mobile forces to fight the United States and Japan, and does not consume it on Taiwan.

After the Taiwan Army’s air defense and command control were destroyed as soon as possible, they were basically paralyzed. They could use patrol missiles and guided bombs to slowly peel off their cramps and skin.

To be honest, before "little motorcycles" were rampant in Ukraine, I never thought of such a way of playing. "Far-fire washing the floor" and other nonsense. Far-fire bombs are precious, how can they wash the floor? Guided bombs are better, but with the aircraft's dispatch and support, the "full cycle" is not cheap. Rand calculation is that it will take more than 10 days and half a month to start showing the cost gap. There is no need to rush to "win in three days" when fighting Taiwan, but it is not good to delay too long.

The key is to cover as many goals as possible in the shortest time as possible, create as much military and civil chaos and frustration as possible, and it is necessary to greatly strengthen the sense of helplessness at the first moment. It seems that the cruise missile can do this.