In the past few days, the international situation has changed unpredictably, and some breakthrough progress has finally been made on the front battlefield of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense's war report on October 30 local time, the Russian army repelled the Ukrainian army's offensive in Kupiansk, bonus man and other places, and successfully shot down a Su-255 fighter jet of the Ukrainian army, multiple m-8 helicopters and drone , etc.
"Kherson Local Government" said that the Ukrainian army is preparing to launch a large-scale attack on the Kherson area, and Russian troops are gathering.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is entering a major escalation stage, which is an undisputed fact. What we need to pay attention to is in which direction will this escalation develop and what will the international impact it will have?
At present, the cross-fire line of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is mainly concentrated in the west coast of Khlsson, the gateway area of Luhansk Prefecture, the partial defense line of Donetsk , and some areas of Nikolayev Prefecture.
It can be seen that the combat area is still very wide. Although the Ukrainian army has the advantage in terms of numbers, the key to gaining an advantage lies in the equipment assisted by NATO . Therefore, concentrating superior forces to attack one point is perhaps the best strategy, which may be the right way to meet the Russian army's expectations.
As long as the Ukrainian army does not launch an attack on the entire line, the Russian army will have the ability to have a head-on duel, as long as this is not a trick to lure the tiger out of the mountain.
Now we all think that the Ukrainian army will launch a fierce attack on Khlsson. Perhaps the final counterattack direction will be chosen in Zaporoze and Donbas . Therefore, the day the battle did not officially start, and we cannot easily draw conclusions.
From the perspective of Moscow , if you want to quickly end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the first thing is to eliminate the Ukrainian army in the four states that have already been "referendum", and the second is to get involved in Kharkov or Nikolayev . , so it is not ruled out that after repelling the Ukrainian army that counterattacked Kherson, they will immediately return to the Donbas area and eliminate the vital forces of the Ukrainian army defending this place with absolute advantage.
In this way, the combat time will be greatly extended, and it will be difficult to see the end of the conflict at least this year.
If Moscow is ready for a protracted war, then the war budget must be clear, otherwise it is possible to collapse from the inside.
On the other hand, Ukraine's economic situation is generally stable and with the support of the West, the biggest variable is probably the US midterm election.
If Republican wins a complete victory, even if Biden can still promote some aid funds, it will encounter many difficulties. What's more, Putin will definitely take this as an opportunity to open the window for US-Russia calls, which is not a good sign for Kiev .
The current upgrade is not only the internal situation on the battlefield is changing, but the international situation has also suddenly become tense.
In response to the investigation results of the "North Stream" natural gas pipeline explosion, the Russian side announced that it had found traces of the participation of the Royal Navy of the British Royal Navy, and the British side naturally denied this at the first time.
But no matter what, since the Russian side gave such a result, it means that it would lead people to go into the water. Otherwise, just learn from Finland , Swedish , and hesitate and not telling it.
When the situation is characterized as destroying Europe's energy infrastructure, I'm afraid everyone will have a string in their hearts.
The key is to view and how Germany countries express their opinions. The current economic situation of EU is a bit bad. It is simply too cowardly to not calculate the account clearly.
Based on these situations, if the internal political trend of the United States changes and Europe also experiences these situations, Zelensky doesn’t have much to get.
Musical Western views still believe that as long as Ukraine is unconditional, Russia will be unable to consume sooner or later, but in fact, Western politicians are more worried that they will step down before Putin.
Putin's control over Russia is deeply rooted, and decades of political hard work have gained a large number of loyal followers. frequently changes important military positions can also be regarded as a kind of "delegation of power".
In contrast, Western countries is completely different. Faced with the rising energy prices, opposition waves and demonstrations from various countries are becoming increasingly fierce, and governments are exhausted to cope.
Italy's right-turning rudder is a good milestone, which fully demonstrates that there is actually a certain structural imbalance in the systems and values that the West is proud of.
Deciding the development of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict depends on how to fight in the next few battles.
If war is the continuation of politics, then the political game must be based on the outcome of the war. This sentence applies to both Russia and Ukraine, and is also related to the strategic interests of the West.
In short, the development of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is heartbreaking, especially the escalation of the war has once again affected the problem of food supply, which may cause a humanitarian crisis to some poor countries.
Finally, I hope that the conflict can end as soon as possible, try to avoid the magnification of the situation, turn conflicts into negotiations as much as possible, and resolve all contradictions within the diplomatic framework. Among them, the participation and supervision of the international community is required, rather than just having a unilateral talks on one side, it can be done with stolen.
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