But Ukraine is indeed preparing for a nuclear war, especially the Chinese are now evacuating Ukraine and the Westerners are evacuating Russia. This can indeed be said to be a dangerous omen, but what will a limited nuclear war be like?

As the eastern Ukrainian region was formally annexed by Russia in law, the direction of the Russian-Ukrainian war attracted more and more friends' attention. Many people are concerned about whether there will be nuclear war ? I personally think that according to the current battle situation, unless the Russian army is surrounded and annihilated on the front battlefield and has a huge failure, Russia may use the tactical nuclear weapon , but the possibility is not high.

Because in the Ukrainian offensive so far, many friends who support Ukraine said that tens of thousands of Russian troops were surrounded, which is actually seriously exaggerated. Most of the Russian troops have evacuated. The ones who are currently staying in the local area are actually the Wudong militias, and basically they are cannon fodder. So even if Russia loses this war, it will not cause huge tactical fluctuations.

But Ukraine is indeed preparing for a nuclear war, especially the Chinese are now evacuating Ukraine, and the Westerners are evacuating Russia. This can indeed be said to be a dangerous omen, but what will a limited nuclear war be like? None of us can imagine it.

What is really dangerous recently is that many Western media have begun to promote that in fact, limited nuclear war will not lead to the destruction of human beings, and will not be like this. These articles are not problematic in terms of popular science, but it is very interesting to release these signals to the public. If Russia encounters a major failure in a conventional war, and Putin needs to use tactical nuclear weapons, what will NATO react? Will NAD use tactical nuclear weapons? This matter is actually very intriguing.

I still think that Russia's nuclear guarantee only applies to Crimea and Russian settlements before February 24 this year. If Russia encounters Ukraine's counterattack, will it use nuclear weapon ? I still tend to think that it won't be unless there are a large number of living troops at risk of being annihilated, but Ukraine also lacks the ability to do so.

In fact, compared with Russia's initial goal, it is much better to win Odessa in full. Putin said that he was willing to cease fire with Ukraine after annexing the four states, which actually proved that he gave up his annexation of Odessa , and wanted to make Ukraine a landlocked country, and even denied the position of the existence of Ukrainian state.

of course will it become Qin's destruction of the six kingdoms. It is hard to say whether he will cut three cities today and five cities tomorrow. However, Western armed forces, Ukraine's determination, and long-term tug-of-war with Russia in the eastern Ukraine region, may not stop.

Putin kept saying that he wanted to use nuclear weapons. In fact, a very important reason was that he wanted to cease fire as soon as possible, because the constant war caused too much damage to Russia, especially after partial mobilization, Putin did not expect that the domestic rebound pressure was so great. Supporting war was a completely different concept from his own relatives and friends going to the battlefield. The territory cannot be retreated, and a ceasefire must be made as soon as possible. It is very likely to use nuclear deterrence in exchange, which is also Putin's idea.

But in fact, what kind of results will it cause when using nuclear weapons? If a nuclear power takes the initiative to use nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear country for the first time, the result will definitely be nuclear proliferation for the whole world.

That is not just that countries around Russia want to seek nuclear protection umbrellas and ask Ukraine to join NATO or other things. It is very likely that countries around China, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia , and even Taiwan, will seek tactical nuclear weapons. This is a very bad thing, and of course it will cause huge damage to China's national interests.

The entire war situation in eastern Ukraine will not change much. Both sides have entered the last moment of bleeding. The Ukraine army conquered these two places and carried out a certain degree of military retaliation against the Ukraine militia and Wagner organization. It is estimated that it will be exhausted, not because it is deterred from the Russian nuclear deterrence, but because it is really impossible to fight.

Before winter is approaching, there may be a ceasefire between the two sides, so let’s talk about it in the spring of the following year.And in the end, it may be that the Ukrainian army occupied some areas within the so-called annexation states of Russia. In fact, there is no difference from conventional wars. Everyone formed such a stalemate, and then the international community would say that Russia's occupation of the four states was illegal.

Russia finally entered this state, but it is difficult for Russia to get out of trouble under the current situation. From the current point of view, the explosion of Beixi's pipeline is indeed a very ruthless move. Because after the Nord Stream pipeline was bombed, Russia's energy chips disappeared, and in the Europeans' plans, Russia no longer has any value. Long-term freezing, building an iron curtain on the border between Russia and Europe, and forming a military confrontation between NATO and Russia will definitely become an inevitable result.

Putin's speech the day before yesterday was passionate and touching, but overall he is still a person who lives in the past. Because Russia does not have the strength to confront Europe and the United States for a long time. I have always said that the war in eastern Ukraine has two natures. One is a war in Russia against European and American hegemony, and the other is a war in Ukraine against Russian hegemony, which has dual attributes. Chinese people should see this clearly. What Russia does in Ukraine today is actually not much different from what the Japanese did in China during the 9/18 Incident and in 2018.

Today's referendum in the eastern part of Wudong is not much different from the referendum in Outer Mongolia that year, so we had to abstain. Even Russia's best friend Serbian also abstained because it cannot face its own Kosovo problem. This is a naked hegemony of a big country against a military group, but the way this big country fights against the hegemony of a military group is to try to impose its hegemony on its neighbors.

Finally, let’s take a look at the direction of this war. From the current perspective, the Americans still hope to control this war to the scale of a conventional war, and this war will mainly be held in these four states in the eastern Ukrainian region. It is estimated that after this war, Ukraine will basically give up its demands on Crimea.

But in the four prefectures of Wudong, I think the following situations may occur. First, there is probably a repeated tug-of-war in the end; second, the Ukrainians in the four eastern Ukrainian states will definitely be driven away by the Russians, because if the Ukrainians account for too much, the Russians will not be able to stabilize the control of the situation, so it will definitely be accompanied by a large number of ethnic invasions. If there is no ethnic invasion, the land cannot be annexed; third, as long as the war continues, as long as the partial mobilization order is not lifted, the contradictions within Russia will increase; fourth, Putin no longer has much political chips to compromise with the West, that is, in a sense, Russia's situation will become North Korean.