On September 8, according to the Russian Satellite News Agency, Polish Deputy Minister of Defense Marcin Ochepa said in an interview with the Polish Daily that Polish believes that there is a risk of war with Russia within 3-10 years. Poland needs to use this time to reorganize its arms.
Ochepa said that the time of confrontation with Russia depends on how the Ukrainian conflict ends, but Poland believes that it will take 3-10 years for Russia to restore its military potential. And during this period, Poland should spare no effort to arm its army.
In fact, in recent years, Poland has been expanding its military strength. In July this year, the Polish Minister of Defense announced that it would introduce a variety of advanced military equipment from South Korea. According to the agreement between Poland and South Korea, these equipment includes about 1,000 K2PL main battle tanks, 672 K9 self-propelled howitzers and 48 F/A-50 trainer aircraft.
It is understood that due to concerns about head-on conflict with Russia, Poland has been looking for an advanced main battle tank in recent years to replace its outdated Soviet-made T72M1 and PT91 tanks. Hyundai Rotem's K2PL "Wolf" tank previously competed on the same stage with US M1A2SEPv3 tanks, German Leopard 2A7+ tanks, and Swedish CV90120 tanks, jointly competing for the next generation of main battle tanks of the Polish Ministry of Defense. The Polish Ministry of Defense claims that the K-2PL main battle tank scheme provided by South Korea has obtained the best candidate offer among several schemes.
At present, the Polish Army has 105 Leopard 2A5, 142 Leopard 2A4 and Leopard 2PL, 233 PT91, and 318 T72M1/M1R/AR tanks. The Polish Army plans to upgrade all Leopard 2A4s to Leopard 2PLM2 standard, which is the latest improved model of Leopard 2PL. It will be upgraded with domestic Polish digital communication system and battlefield management system, and is expected to be upgraded by the end of 2023.
Polish Army also formulated a modernization plan for the Leopard 2A5 tank, called Leopard 2A7PL. These tanks may upgrade the firepower system to 55-caliber 120 smoothbore gun to deal with the threat of new Russian tanks. It is understood that after replacing the new tank gun , the initial velocity of the muzzle increased from 1670 meters/sec to 1750 meters/sec. The maximum chamber pressure of the new gun has been increased to 700-780 megapas of the L55 gun, and the hit accuracy of the gun has been greatly enhanced.
, and the T-72M1 series tanks that are already difficult to take on the heavy responsibility can only be retired and sealed. To supplement the equipment of this part of the tanks' retired troops, the Polish Ministry of Defense has purchased 250 M1A2 SEPv3 tanks from the United States, which will be equipped with the Polish Army's 18th Mechanized Division to replace the T-72M1R tanks. The Polish Army had no idea of making do with the rest of the T-72M1R and PT-91 tanks. Poland purchased K2PL "Wolf" from South Korea, equipped with active protection system, high-power engine, and long-barreled tank gun. Unlike the outside world's prejudice against South Korea's military industry, although the achievements of South Korea's tank industry cannot be separated from the support of advanced Western technologies, with its excellent integration capabilities, the performance of each subsystem of the K2PL tank built by South Korea for Poland is very competitive. Overall, Performance can reach the world's advanced level.
Therefore, it is expected that after 2035, the Polish Army will use four different advanced tanks as the main force, including Leopard 2PLM2, Leopard 2A7PL, M1A2 SEPv3, and K2PL "Wolf". More importantly, the gun caliber of these tanks is 120mm, which is much simpler in terms of ammunition compatibility than the original mixed 120mm and 125mm shells.
Judging from the choice of mature tanks in Poland that can arrive quickly in the short term, Poland's defense equipment procurement is still relatively pragmatic. Faced with the threat from Russia's T-90M, T-80BVM, and T-72B3, Poland urgently needs several advanced Western tanks to compete with it. On the one hand, the Polish Army gradually replaced the original old Soviet tank with advanced Western tanks; on the other hand, it upgraded the original German Leopard 2 tanks, focusing on increasing firepower.
, the introduction and upgrading plan, also reflects Poland's concerns when facing Russian military power. After Russia carried out a "special military operation" on Ukrainian , Poland's pressure as the frontier position of the West to fight Russia doubled.Although there are shortcomings in the informatization of Russian Army , Poland's army modernization is not enough to compete with Russia's modern steel torrent.
For Polish Air Force , since NATO member states can assist each other, the air pressure does not seem to be as great as the ground. However, the current main force of the Polish Air Force is the F-16C/D and MiG29 fighter , and it still cannot gain an advantage in the face of the threat of advanced aircraft such as the Russian Air Force such as the Su-30SM and Su-35.
In addition, unlike ground equipment, due to the lack of spare parts, the attendance rates of the Polish Air Force's MiG 29 and Su22 aircraft were seriously affected. The Polish Ministry of Defense said that a pilot who flew the Soviet-made MiG-29 fighter recently died in an accident, mainly because the Polish aviation industry was unable to produce parts that meet the requirements of such fighter aircraft.
In addition, the Polish Air Force's air defense equipment has not been upgraded for many years. Poland is still using the Soviet-made S125 and S200 air defense systems that were decades ago as the main force of national air defense. Russia is very familiar with the weaknesses of these weapons, and can weaken the combat effectiveness through electromagnetic suppression and other means. The Polish Air Force equipped self-produced "Poprad" mobile short-range air defense system only installs the portable air defense missile on the off-road chassis. It has a very close range and has poor resistance to multiple targets. It has almost no precise missiles for treating precision missiles. ability.
Therefore, the Polish Ministry of Defense decided to retire these Soviet weapons as soon as possible and fill the vacancy with Western technical equipment. As early as 2019, Poland spent US$6.5 billion to order 32 F-35 fighter and related supporting equipment from the United States. The Polish Air Force believes that these stealth fighter will replace the old MiG29 and Su22 aircraft to provide protection for the Polish sky. To this end, Poland purchased the F/A-50 from South Korea as the trainer , the fifth-generation fighter fighter , to train excellent pilots who can control these advanced aircraft for Poland.
For a country like Poland with a special geographical location, its military pressure is very great. Among NATO's countries with "deep military strength", Poland's military modernization plan is relatively pragmatic, which is to prepare for military conflicts that may break out with Russia in the next decade. Once NATO and Russia completely fall apart, Poland will become the first line of defense for NATO countries. It is obviously unrealistic to pin their hopes on allies to help.
For Russia and Poland, although the two countries had been in the same camp for a period of time during the Cold War , wars had occurred many times in history. Now Poland's anti-Russian voices are absolutely mainstream. In the face of Russia's "special military operation" against Ukraine, Poland has stepped up its pace of expanding its arms. Whether Russia and Poland will have conflicts depends on the competition between Russia and NATO in the next few years.
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