text/Junjian
htmlOn 18, Ukraine continued to sound the alarm across the country, and it was obvious that Russia was air strikes on Ukraine again., but more "striking" than air strikes is that nearly 10,000 Russian troops and a large number of combat equipment are constantly gathering in the territory of allies, Belarus , and Putin may be brewing new big moves.
(Russian army is welcomed in Belarus)
According to Global Times html on the 318th, Belarusian Ministry of Defense confirmed that large Russian troops are pouring into the country continuously, and about 9,000 Russian soldiers and Belarusian troops form a joint army to jointly carry out military tasks. In addition, the Russian side will gather about 170 tanks and s into Belarus, as well as more than 100 artillery types s.
This is just information that has been made public. Perhaps Russia will strengthen military cooperation with Belarus in other ways. These two alliance countries are now standing together to face Ukraine, which has defected to the West.
(Russian troops rushed to Belarus at night)
Although the Russian air strikes are mainly initiated from Russia's mainland, and the fierce battles between the Russian and Ukrainian troops are also mainly carried out in the Donbas area in the east of Ukraine, public opinion believes that with Russia's deployment of troops in Belarus, it is not ruled out that the Russian army or even the Russian-Belarus coalition will attack western Ukraine in the future.
If Russia operates like this, it will be a wave of sound attacks on the east and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will enter a new stage of fierce fighting.
(Lukashenko and Putin)
For Russia, there are at least three benefits to choosing to launch a military operation from the direction of Belarus.
The first is to cut off the firewood from the bottom of the pot and directly cut off Ukraine's retreat. Because Ukraine's aid received from the West, a considerable part of it entered the country from Polish , and then arrived at Kiev and other transit stations through Lviv and then sent to the eastern front line. If Russia cuts off directly from the source, Ukraine will be in a more desperate situation.
(Belarusian tank troops)
The second is to be more deterrent to Kiev. Kiev Prefecture The northern border is bordered by Belarus, and the border is only 90 kilometers away from Kiev. If the Russian army gathers its forces to drive straight in, it can quickly approach the outside of Kiev. If Putin thinks it is necessary, this is the best shortcut to attack Kiev.
The third is that it can make Ukraine difficult to deal with, because the main force of the Ukrainian army is now fighting against the Russian army in the east. Putin has ordered the mobilization of 300,000 reserve forces to reinforce the front line. At this time, the Russian army aimed at Kiev from another direction, forcing Ukraine to divide its troops into the Ukrainian border. Now Ukraine is actually in a state of being attacked by both east and west.
(Belarus borders western Ukraine)
As for feasibility, it also exists.
First of all, Russia only needs Belarus as a transit hub, and Belarus' limited troops do not necessarily need to participate in the war. As long as the Russian army set up a stronghold in Belarus, they can act. In addition to the above-mentioned military equipment, Lukashenko has previously expressed his desire to obtain the S400 air defense missile system and the "Iskander" ballistic missile. These demands seem to have received Putin's support. As long as Russian weapons enter Belarus, they will have the ability to strike Ukraine.
(Lukashenko inspects the army)
Secondly, the United States and the West are accusing Russia of obtaining long-range drones and even ballistic missiles from Iran . Although Iran denies it, Ukraine claims to have discovered the wreckage of the drone used by the Russian army. If Russia obtains more drones and missiles, then launching a precise strike from Belarus will be a very good action plan.
Furthermore, Putin's mobilization order was implemented vigorously and at least 220,000 people have been mobilized. After training, these reserve soldiers will enter the Ukrainian frontline to fight one after another. In addition, Ukraine is gradually entering the middle of winter, which is the opportunity period for the Russian army. If Russia hopes to achieve a great victory, then re-arrangement is now carried out and defeating Ukraine in one fell swoop is a very important plan.
(Russia and Belarus held a joint military exercise in February)
So, although Belarus emphasized that the joint forces are performing defensive tasks, the Russian army is not here to play.
Putin's special military operation has been going on for almost eight months, and there is no reason to continue to waste like this.
If nothing unexpected happens, accidents will happen, and Putin may have to change his combat plan against Ukraine.
