1. Interpretation of the process of the Russian-Ukrainian war:
1. From February 24 to March 25, it is Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine. The first phase of is aimed at seizing as much territory as possible through overwhelming military offensives and forcing the Ukrainian government to surrender or collapse. Russia took a month to achieve some tactical victories, such as occupying a large swath of Ukrainian territory, but the price was huge, especially because the expected goals were not achieved strategically. The Zelensky government insisted on it and resisted resolutely.
2. Russia had to transfer to the second phase of military operation. By re-assembling the army, it concentrated its efforts to fully occupy and defend the Donbas area. Russia changed its high-cost approach to lifting high and fighting high, instead leveraging its firepower advantages, advancing slowly step by step, and killing as much of the Ukrainian army's vitality as possible. But at this moment, comprehensive military aid from the United States and NATO began to flock to us. Ukraine used NATO aid to implement a national mobilization and quickly rebuilt a modern Ukrainian army. The offensive and defensive situation between Russia and Ukraine began to reverse.
3. Without completing the second phase of combat goal, Russia had to rush to start stage military operation: prepare for the proxy conflict between Russia and NATO. Russia is in a comprehensive proxy war with NATO, facing a new force with logistics support from NATO, military training from NATO, military intelligence from NATO, and coordinated with NATO military commanders. Ukraine has frequently succeeded in counterattacking, re-controlling a large area of territory, and Russia's important defense lines have been repeatedly broken through. Russia has also mobilized partially to replenish its troops and strived to maintain control over the eastern Ukrainian region. At present, the third phase of the war is still in progress, but the Russian army is in a relatively passive position.
2. The reasons for Ukraine's counterattack were successful :
Ukraine was not defeated as many of us predicted in advance. Instead, after resisting the lightning offensive of the Russian army, it accumulated strength and began to counterattack. There are both tactical reasons and non-tactical reasons.
First of all, . Ukraine is relatively consistent, and it is united in the same hatred of the enemy, and its combat effectiveness is quite strong. Although the Russian army has a strength advantage, its fighting will is relatively depressed. Once the attack is not smooth, it is prone to internal disagreement, and its combat effectiveness is reduced. This phenomenon is manifested on the battlefield.
followed by . NATO's comprehensive support and more advanced combat system are crucial. The composition of Ukrainian troops, the timing and direction of attack are decided by NATO commanders. NATO's three-dimensional intelligence network almost seamlessly locates all Russian military fortifications and whereabouts. NATO-assisted advanced drones, precision strike artillery and anti-tank missile can accurately target the key command posts, logistics facilities and troop assembly locations of the Russian army, and the Russian army can hardly hide. In contrast, Russia's intelligence system, coordination and command system, and precision strike system are all at a disadvantage. The Russian army's hard power advantages in terms of military numbers, weapons numbers and energy cannot be fully utilized. This has become a consensus among the battlefield commanders of Russia and Ukraine.
3, The tactical command strategy of the Ukrainian army can easily deceive Russian commanders. The East-Watching Strikes are a strategy discovered by the famous general of China during the Western Han Dynasty, Zhou Yafu, when he blocked the rebellion of King Wu, Liu Bi. Liu Bi commanded the army to attack the West, but was discovered by Zhou Yafu and defeated the rebels. The Ukrainian army commander skillfully used this strategy and successfully dispersed the Russian army's forces, occupied a local advantage, and broke through the Russian army's defense line.Before the counterattack, the Ukrainian army had always stated that they planned to launch an offensive in the Khlsong area (Khlsong was the logistics center of the Russian army, and the focus on attacking this area is very credible, similar to burning the enemy's food and grass before fighting in ancient China). Ukraine did send an army to launch an feint attack on along the Khlsong line, successfully attracting the Russian main force, reserve and reinforcements to transfer to it. At the same time, Ukraine dispatched its main force to attack the relatively weak defense of Kharkiv. The Russian army was shocked and unable to return to defense. The Ukrainian army easily broke through the Russian defense line. When the Russian army began to return to the Kharkov area, the Ukrainian army strengthened its offensive in the Khlsong area and quickly made a breakthrough.
From this point of view, it can be seen that in terms of tactical command, the Russian military commander is indeed inferior in skills and needs to be reflected on it carefully. It is very likely that I have not systematically learned Sun Tzu's Art of War.
3. The possible trend of the Russian-Ukrainian war :
The Russian-Ukrainian war is in a stalemate, and there are many possibilities in the future.
1. The three parties involved in the war will not give up easily. From the current perspective, one thing is more certain. Neither Russia nor Ukraine will give up easily, nor will NATO countries. For Putin , this is a war that cannot be afforded. Putin launched the Ukrainian war against the crowd. If he withdrew from the war without the pre-determined goal, he would not be able to explain it to the country. For Zelensky and the Ukrainian government, defending the country is a sacred duty, and withdrawing from the war without regaining the occupied territory means political suicide. For the United States and NATO, using the Russian-Ukrainian war to achieve Russia's quality and even drag down Putin's regime is a very rare opportunity. The Democratic government aiming to restore the global hegemony of the United States will not miss it easily. Therefore, the Russian-Ukraine war will continue until the outcome is decided, or one side cannot stand the way out and has to accept the bitter fruit.
2. The possibility of upgrading to local nuclear war against still exists. Before deciding the final result, an important highlight is whether Russia will risk using the nuclear weapon if the Russian army continues to retreat step by step. Putin has repeatedly hinted that it may use nuclear weapons, and nuclear weapons mobilization and deployment have also occurred in Russia. Russia can carry nuclear warheads 95 and 160 strategic bombers that have also reached NATO countries' deployment. However, the United States has also made it clear to Russia that the consequences of using nuclear weapons are very serious, and the United States will take all measures, including targeted removal, to respond. But Russia doesn't seem to be scared. Therefore, the Russian-Ukrainian war currently has the possibility of escalation into a nuclear conflict.
If Russia has no choice but to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, if the United States counters in a comprehensive manner, it will be difficult for Russia to win. However, the cost of fighting the nuclear war between the United States and Russia is very high, and even the risk of targeted removal is very high. Once it cannot be killed in one blow, the revenge of the United States will be very tragic. Therefore, Putin may bet that the United States will not take too much risk for Ukraine, but Putin may lose his political life if he loses the Ukrainian war. So, if Putin decides to gamble, Russia is more likely to win by chance.
If the Biden administration recognizes such an outcome in advance, it may take the initiative to avoid the situation that makes the United States extremely passive. Therefore, there is a possibility that when Ukraine counterattacks reached a certain level, the United States urgently called a stop, leaving Putin a little decent, and at the same time, allowing Ukraine to regain a large area of territory to make an explanation, and then reach a ceasefire agreement on this basis. If the United States chooses to do this, Russia may compromise because Russia's goals have been compromised, and Ukraine should have no other choice.
