Recently, the remarks and views of senior US military leaders about China have emerged one after another, and two of them are very representative. First, the US think tank Rand Company, in a report titled "Strategic Analysis of the US Armed Forces Should Take when Involved in the Taiwan Strait Conflict", believes that once the United States goes to war with China, the US military must consider completely destroying China's industrial foundation, and can assemble thousands of fighter jets and bombers around China, and conduct comprehensive bombing of China's oil storage bases, roads, bridges, airports, etc., weaken China's wartime industrial production capacity and military assembly capacity.
Rand think tank
Rand Company This analysis report that makes people "shocked" was just released a few days ago. General Mark Kelly, commander of the US Air Force Air Force Air Force Aerospace Network Conference, publicly stated in his speech at the US Air Force Aeronautics and Space Network Conference: The US military has lost its advantages in conventional operations in the face of the PLA. If it wants to go to war with the PLA now, it must be crazy! Mark Kelly is the active commander of the US Air Force, and Rand is the most important comprehensive strategic research institution in the United States currently, with a profound military background. The views of Rand and General Mark Kelly can actually represent the US military. A few days later, two completely different opinions appeared in the US military. Which one is the "real US military"?
Mark Kelly
In fact, the US military think tank and the senior management of the US military made completely different voices and opinions. During the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996, the US military was not prepared to fight the People's Liberation Army in full swing. After 2000, the PLA's overall strength ushered in rapid development, both air force equipment, army equipment and naval equipment were realized. A qualitative leap can be said to have taken a step forward in a day. In the past 20 years after 2000, the development of the US military has entered a relatively slow period. At present, almost all of the US military's equipment was developed and equipped during the Cold War period in the last century and the late stages of the Cold War . The only new equipment, such as the Zumwalter-class destroyer , and the Ford-class aircraft carrier , are either unfinished or have no comprehensive combat capabilities for a long time.
Oil storage base
Under such circumstances, the US military think tanks and senior decision makers of the US military are no longer able to comprehensively and meticulously calculate and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of the US military and the PLA in terms of conventional military strength, especially in the Western Pacific region. At the moment when the PLA has strong regional denial capabilities, the US military is not sure whether it can go to war with the PLA in this region! So which of the two completely different voices, Rand Company and Mark Kelly, is closer to the facts or more reliable?
US Air Force fighter jets
Overall, the analysis report released by Rand Company is more like an unfulfilled wish.According to the view of Rand Company's "Strategic Analysis Report on the US Armed Forces Should Take when Involved in the Taiwan Strait Conflict", once the US military and the People's Liberation Army fight in the Western Pacific and assemble thousands of fighter jets to comprehensively strike and destroy China's infrastructure, it can indeed greatly weaken China's wartime production capacity and military assembly capabilities. However, the key to the problem is not the effect of this comprehensive strike, but whether the US military can achieve such a comprehensive strike?
J-16 aircraft group
China is a Pacific Ocean away from the United States. If the US military wants to go to full war with the People's Liberation Army in the Western Pacific, only the US Air Force and the US Navy can be used. Let US Army fight with the People's Liberation Army. I believe the US Army will definitely refuse in its heart. Moreover, from the perspective of military assembly capabilities, the US military does not have the strength to invest enough army operations around China. Instead, only using the air force and navy has great combat limitations, it is also extremely difficult for the US military to win in the Western Pacific!
Kadena Air Force Base
U.S. military wants to assemble thousands of fighter jets in the Western Pacific, and at least 6 aircraft carrier combat group will participate, and the U.S. military's military base in the Western Pacific must also be fully utilized, including Yokota Base in Japan, Yokosuka Naval Base, and html l1 Sasebo Naval Base , Akigi Naval Aviation Base , Okinawa Base Group, Yongsan Base, Ushan Air Base, Guam Anderson Air Base and Apula Naval Base , etc. Only by fully utilizing these bases can we support the operation of 6 aircraft carrier combat groups, nearly 1,000 Air Force fighter jets and all logistics maintenance equipment and facilities.
Anderson Air Base
The US military has the strength to assemble more than 1,000 fighter jets in the Western Pacific, but assembling more than 1,000 fighter jets is just the beginning. Whether China can be fully bombed depends on whether these bases, fighter jets and aircraft carrier battle groups can survive in wartime. Judging from the current counter-enforcement strength of the People's Liberation Army, such a large-scale gathering of troops in the US will be subject to intensive firepower strikes during wartime! Once a war occurs, if the US military uses bases located in Japan, South Korea and other countries to participate in the attack on the PLA, these bases will immediately become the targets of the PLA!
Nimitz-class aircraft carrier
From the perspective of fighter scale, the PLA currently has more than 1,200 third-generation and fourth-generation fighter jets and a large number of advanced air defense systems . The thousand fighter jets gathered by the US military have no advantage in scale and performance. Secondly, the available bases of the US military, including the Guam base group, are too close to China. After decades of development, the PLA has prepared a large number of Dongfeng 11, Dongfeng 15, Dongfeng 16, Dongfeng 17, Dongfeng 21, Dongfeng 26 and other ballistic missiles . In terms of the strength of near, medium and long-range conventional missiles, whether in performance or scale, if the PLA says it is the second, then no one dares to be the first!
PLA has a strong missile force
Once war starts, dozens of US military bases in the Western Pacific will be covered by the full firepower of various ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles . Although the US military deploys a large number of air defense and anti-missile system near these bases, the PLA's missiles are not the " Scud " of the Iraqi army. They are top-notch in terms of quantity, size, penetration and anti-jamming capabilities, especially hypersonic missiles such as Dongfeng-17 are unable to intercept the current air defense and anti-missile systems of the US military.The US military can assemble thousands of fighter jets in the Western Pacific, and the PLA also has the strength to use thousands of missiles, cruise missiles, and hypersonic missiles, saturation attack systems, to completely destroy the US military's bases in the Western Pacific. Even if these missiles are intercepted, dozens of US military bases in the Western Pacific will still fall into a sea of fire!
More than a dozen Dongfeng-26 launch vehicles
At sea, the US Navy aircraft carrier battle group will be hit by the Eagle Strike-21 hypersonic anti-ship missile, Dongfeng 21D and Dongfeng 26C anti-ship ballistic missiles at the same time. What the US aircraft carrier battle group will do is not how to shoot down the PLA fighter jets, but how to avoid the attack of the PLA anti-ship missile ! Under the intensive attack of thousands of missiles, I believe the US military has no idea how much can it be left in the land base of the Western Pacific and the aircraft carrier battle group that has gathered here. After the missile attack, the remaining combat forces of the US military will face thousands of advanced fighter jets of the People's Liberation Army, and the US military has no chance of winning!
PLA ballistic missile volley
Overall, Rand's "Strategic Analysis Report Should Be Taken When U.S. Armed Forces Involved in Taiwan Strait Conflict" only considers the importance of the wartime strike on China's industrial base, and does not consider whether the US military has this strength. Therefore, the views of General Mark Kelly, commander of the US Air Force Air Force Department, are more realistic. However, when looking at this issue rationally, General Mark Kelly's view is not comprehensive: At present, the overall conventional strength of the US navy and air force still has an advantage, but the US military has lost its conventional advantage in the Western Pacific region and in front of the People's Liberation Army!
