After entering 2022, Sino-US relations have not yet been able to get rid of the previous historic trough. Official exchanges are limited and high-level interactions are only a handful of high-level interactions. The only few exchanges are also carried out in a tense and sensitive atmosphere. This is not the most dangerous signal. The White House adjusts its strategy toward China, extending the main battlefield of Sino-US game to the Taiwan Strait, and constantly colluding with and using each other with the Taiwan authorities on the island. The Taiwan Strait crisis has entered the brink of detonation under the joint action of separatist forces and external anti-China forces on the island.
Recently, the Taiwan authorities are in a "very good mood". First, the US Navy's ship crossed the Taiwan Strait one after another, engaging in so-called "free navigation" and provoking the mainland regardless of consequences. Immediately afterwards, US President Biden said bluntly in an exclusive interview with reporters, "If Taiwan suffers a historic military strike, the United States will intervene with its armed forces." Regarding the standard of "armed intervention", Biden gave a clear answer: it is not just providing weapons and equipment assistance like Ukrainian , but directly sending US troops to the war.
Long before this response, Biden responded to external questions on whether the United States "accompanies Taiwan" many times. Although he answers "Yes!" every time, a White House spokesperson will always explain immediately after the incident, and the United States' position of adhering to the "one-China policy" has not changed. The first two times, the White House could use Biden’s “Alzheimer’s disease” as an excuse, but the affirmative responses several times in a row could not even deceive his own people.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the US military did not directly join the war and just watched it on the wall, which caused anxiety among many people on the island. The lie that the US would "assist in defense of Taiwan" that the Taiwan authorities have been advocating has begun to be exposed. In desperation, the Taiwan authorities actually moved out "the three differences between Taiwan and Ukraine", claiming that Taiwan is the center of the world's semiconductor industry chain and the pillar of the US Indo-Pacific Strategy . "Washington will never give up on Taiwan anyway."
"Assisting defense against Taiwan" does not rely solely on external interference forces and extreme "Taiwan independence" elements on the island. Whether the people of Western countries support this risky move by their governments largely determines whether this policy can be promoted smoothly.
According to foreign media reports, the Marshall Foundation of Germany and the Bertelsmann Foundation recently jointly released a report called "Transatlantic Trends 2022". The report conducted a questionnaire survey on all 14 countries in the Atlantic region (including the United States, Britain, France and Germany).
When it comes to cross-strait issues, people from all countries are very cautious: when asked what countermeasures they hope their government will take if mainland China surrenders Taiwan by force, most of the respondents believe that should be used to impose economic sanctions on and diplomatic blockade, and try to avoid direct conflicts with China. As for the proportion of respondents who support providing weapons and equipment assistance to Taiwan and even directly send troops to fight, there are very few.
From the average number of the 14 countries interviewed, 35% of the people who chose to take diplomatic measures when the mainland imposes force on Taiwan. 32% of the respondents support the adoption of joint economic sanctions, and the proportion of supporting the delivery of weapons and dispatch of troops is only a pitiful 4% and 2%. There are even 12% of people who do not want their government to take any action and watch the evolution of the situation. The willingness to "assist Taiwan" is no more than 10%, which greatly breaks through the outside world's perception.
data can best illustrate everything. Western politicians and DPP members constantly advocate that anti-China is the "political correctness" of the West, emphasizing that the United States and the West support the "Taiwan independence" line, and do not hesitate to fight with the mainland. This kind of lies is simply vulnerable to the real poll results.
The reason why Western countries’ responses to the Taiwan Strait issue are quite rational and cautious is nothing more than the following important reasons.
First, it doesn’t matter, just hold on high. From a geographical point of view, the United States and the West are thousands of miles away from the Taiwan Strait. Even if you take a modern means of transportation, Westerners will have to cross half of the earth from their own country to the surrounding islands. In a contemporary era where changes are so dramatic, few people pay attention to things that have nothing to do with themselves on the other side of the earth.
Second, the Taiwan Strait issue is not the core issue of Western society.For the people of Western countries today, there are many more urgent and dangerous situations that are far more urgent than the Taiwan Strait, such as energy crisis, inflation , social tear, etc. These issues that directly affect everyone's vital interests are the hot topics of general concern to the public. Unless you are a person with a dizzy mind and ideological , you will not invest your precious energy in the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
Third, the lessons of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict have allowed Western people to appreciate the systemic risks of confrontation between major powers. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States and the West launched historic sanctions against Russia. Kremlin just took energy weapons as a counterattack, which has put European countries on the brink of collapse. If we completely break up with China, then what Western countries have to bear will not only be as simple as the energy crisis.
When the option of "assisting defense against Taiwan" was denied by the Western people themselves, I wonder what those DPP people who shouted "rock-solid" in the friendship between the United States and Taiwan all day long would feel?
