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While the US Senate Foreign Affairs Committee passed the Taiwan-related bill, the European Parliament also passed the "Taiwan Situation Resolution" by 424 to 14. There is no need to say much about the United States' stance to obstruct China from achieving unification, and the attitudes of Europe and the United States are becoming increasingly consistent. If Japan is added, which does not want China to unify, more than the United States and Europe, this is the main external obstacle to China's realization of unification.
The manipulation of Taiwanese politicians and even influenced the public opinion on the island is not that important. They cannot stop the result of China's unification. They can only affect whether Taiwan's unification is harmonious or military unification. For the people on the island, peaceful reunification is the most advantageous way. For the 1.4 billion Chinese people in mainland China, achieving unification is an absolutely overwhelming wish and will. After waiting for more than 70 years, the patience of waiting will become smaller and smaller. Since we cannot be harmonious, we should choose another way.
maintains the status quo and becomes the main expectation of Taiwan's major political parties. Their biggest reliance is of course the United States' military cooperative defense commitment, even if this commitment seems increasingly unreliable. But now the mainland is no longer able to give Taiwan too much time to be independent. At the same time, the United States is increasingly unable to wait because the strength of mainland China has grown to the point where the United States is becoming less and less confident.
Taiwan issue is China's internal affairs, which is the position that the Chinese government has repeatedly declared. But it has always been common for countries like the United States to interfere in other countries' internal affairs. To make the issue of unification truly become a problem of China's internal affairs, China must have sufficient anti-intervention and regional denial capabilities.
China has the full ability, and it may be just a problem that can be achieved in another three to five years of development.
This is the most worrying and anxious issue in the United States on the Taiwan issue. The United States does not have much confidence in whether Taiwan still has useful value in the United States in three to five years. The United States should take advantage of Taiwan's value and make full use of it.
Pelosi 's visit to Taiwan, and the Taiwan-related bills that the United States is promoting, the United States has increasingly bid farewell to its superficial vague attitude on the Taiwan issue (the essence is never blurred), and hollowed out the substantive content of "one China". The United States wants to arm Taiwan militarily and increase arms sales to Taiwan, and the offensiveness of the weapons planned to sell Taiwan is more obvious.
Although the United States no longer has the military advantage of China's offshore, it is impossible to prevent the PLA from landing on the island successfully in the Taiwan Strait area after the mainland is launched. But the United States does not want to give up its interests in the Western Pacific just now, which means that the United States will retreat from a global power to a regional power, and the US dollar will also shrink from the only real world currency to one of the world currencies, or regional currencies. After unified China faces the Pacific directly, the first island chain was completely abolished, and the second island chain was also useless. The important maritime lifelines of South Korea and Japan pass through Taiwan’s waters. If you control Taiwan, not to mention South Korea, or Japan, you must think twice about continuing to choose a border war to the United States. This will shake the United States' security framework in the Western Pacific.
The Taiwan Strait has become a battlefield, and is close to mainland China, which is one of the most favorable conditions for China to ensure the victory of military reunification. But because China's economic focus is all in coastal areas, this has become an important factor in the possibility that China is easily increased by its opponents. At that time, China placed many important economic layouts in the mainland far away from the coast, so this aspect was considered.
The United States has seen China's determination to achieve reunification, and also seen China's growing strength growing rapidly. It is impossible to rely on the United States to defend Taiwan's statement to continue to prevent China's reunification for a long time. The United States cannot fight with the People's Liberation Army for . This position of the United States has actually been tested. Therefore, the United States must increase Taiwan's ability to counterattack the mainland by increasing its ability to increase the cost of China's military reunification.This can achieve two goals:
1. Increase Taiwan's ability to counterattack, increase the cost of unified China, and make China afraid of its decisions.
2. Although Taiwan is part of China and is essentially different from Ukrainian , the United States still wants Taiwan to become an agent like Ukraine, and conflicts with the mainland through agents, which is what the United States hopes to see.
3. Even if China cannot be unified, it can severely damage the mainland coastal economy and cause internal injuries to China's economy.
What the United States is most worried about now is not China’s revocation of Taiwan, but China will rise in an all-round way faster and completely weaken the United States’ advantage in the world. This weakening is mainly reflected in:
1. China's manufacturing industry is already the largest in the world, with the highest system integrity. In the medium and low industries, the United States no longer has the competitiveness with China. China's industrial upgrading is accelerating, which makes the United States particularly worried. What the United States fears most is that China's "developed countries crusher " function expands to high-end industries. China's industrial upgrading has been completed, and the good days for developed countries have basically come to an end. Therefore, the United States began to be afraid of competition and no longer held high the banner of free trade, but went to a selective cold war in the industrial chain, in order to prevent China's industrial chain from upgrading. At the same time, it took the lead in establishing the Indo-Pacific economic framework to attract ASEAN countries + India, becoming competitors of China's medium and low industries, and restricting and weakening China's manufacturing strength from different levels of the industrial chain. This is the reconstruction of the global industrial chain and supply chain that the United States has emphasized in recent times. By counterattacking China's coastal economic centers through Taiwan can not only prevent the speed of upgrading China's industrial chain, but also increase the transfer of mid- and low-end industrial chains to India and ASEAN countries.
2. At the same time, the United States is creating financial problems in other countries through appreciation and entering the wealth harvest season. The United States is worried that it cannot harvest too much from China. Several major financial centers in China are all in coastal areas. If funds are used to quickly leave China on a large scale, coupled with the joint sanctions of the United States, Europe and Japan, it will help to quickly create a coveted financial and economic crisis in China. A similar crisis may achieve a systematic looting of decades of wealth accumulation and make China lose its development momentum for twenty years or more.
3. The United States and the West still have many people in China who tie their own interests with the United States and the West, and highly agree with the United States and the West in terms of values, and are willing to choose the latter between China and the United States and the West. China has some wealth that cannot withstand the power of sunshine and will become an important alliance between the United States and the West. This internal and external cooperation has a destructive power to China far exceeding the anti-China external alliances organized by the United States. These hidden forces within China will not only hinder China's reunification, but also choose all possible opportunities to cooperate with the United States and the West to quickly transform the economic crisis in China into a political crisis. China cannot be stopped from the outside, but internal forces can suddenly lose the momentum to move forward from China.
Use military forces to prevent China from being unified, and the United States no longer has such capabilities. Through these hybrid warfare methods, Taiwan is a proxy in the military, and the United States is the leader in implementing a comprehensive three-dimensional war against China, causing serious problems in China's economy, hollowing out the economic foundation of China's rise, and igniting China's comprehensive crisis. This may be the situation that the United States believes is the most favorable situation for it.
Taiwan issue has always been the focus of the game between China and the United States, but Taiwan has never been the whole game between China and the United States. The game between China and the United States determines the reconstruction of the world order and the basic appearance of the world in the next few hundred years. The reason why the United States prevents China from unification is to view this issue from the perspective of US global interests.
Whether China combines the end of Western hegemony and the regaining of Taiwan, the United States will combine the issue of China's unification with the US Western Pacific security framework to end the US global leadership. The United States and the West are different from the US and Europe have considered the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the decline of the West as a whole.The United States, Europe and Japan have reached an agreement on preventing China from achieving reunification.
Since the United States detonated the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the world has entered a decisive stage. The process of globalization has encountered obstacles, the world has accelerated its differentiation and combination, and the division of camps has become increasingly obvious.
US and Western countries:
In September 2021, the United States, Britain and Australia announced the establishment of a trilateral security partnership (AUKUS), which is a smaller Ansa circle than Five Eyes Alliance. The United States regards it as a key link in its deterrence to China.
In February 2022, the Biden administration of the United States released the Indo-Pacific Strategy , forming a four-sided security mechanism for the United States, Japan, Australia and India to fight against China.
In order to cooperate with the Indo-Pacific strategy, the United States also announced the establishment of the " Indo-Pacific Economic Framework " (IPEF) in Tokyo on May 23, 2022. The focus is to establish a resilient economy (supply chain) and restructure the manufacturing supply chain for China.
In June 2021, the joint communiqué of the NATO summit stated: "China's ambitions and tough behaviors pose a systemic challenge to the rules-based international order and alliance security." NATO's 2030 reform plan publicly stated that it would spread its influence to the Asia-Pacific region and even the world. Now NATO is actively promoting the "Asia-Pacificization" process. On April 6, 2022, the four foreign ministers of Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand attended the NATO foreign ministerial meeting for the first time. On May 5, the South Korean National Intelligence Agency joined the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defense Center. British Foreign Secretary Tras also publicly declared that NATO should intervene in the Taiwan issue and launch a preemptive attack on China.
China-Russia:
In 2019, China-Russia bilateral relations were upgraded from "comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation" to "comprehensive strategic partnership of cooperation in the new era".
In 2021, China announced that China and Russia strategic cooperation has no end, no restricted areas, and no upper limit. Later, through a spokesperson, it was determined that the two countries regard each other as diplomatic priority, which was a strategic choice based on their long-term development. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov also said that the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership between Russia and China in the new era is a model of inter-country relations in the 21st century. In some ways, it even surpasses traditional military and political alliances.
On September 14, 2022, at the Samarkand SCO Summit, Iran officially signed a memorandum of joining SCO . The summit also absorbed Saudi Arabia , Egypt , and Qatar as dialogue partner countries. In the eyes of Americans, this is the sign of the formal formation of the Sino-Russia-Iranian League that Brzezinski was most worried about. BRICS countries will also start to expand their capacity.
, which includes traditional American allies, , Saudi and other countries have a strong interest in joining a cooperative organization led by China-Russia. The decline in the US national strength and the rising trend of China's strength have been recognized by many countries as an important basis for re-selecting the edge. The direct reason is that the United States' control over important areas in the overall situation has declined. In order to curb China, the United States has transferred its main resources to the Pacific region, causing a vacuum zone in the Middle East.
The United States’ policy of suppressing China and Russia has led to a back-to-back and shoulder-to-shoulder relationship between China and Russia. Russia's road to the west was blocked, and Russia officially made a strategic turning point to the East. Together with the growth of China's strength, it is an important factor in changing the balance of power between the East and the West. This balance of power will have a direct impact on other countries' side selection.
For Russia, it is to make up for the lost Western trade and development space from the East. For China, it has completely opened up China's space to the west. Silk Road Economic Belt can be made from lines, and it is also the beginning of the end of geopolitical fragmentation by China, which dominates the world's most populous Asian continent. Once the world's most important energy zone is bound to Chinese economies through pipelines and railways, China's energy security issues will be solved more thoroughly. China can also form a closer and fair economic ties and economic cycle with these most populous countries in the world, compete with the United States and the United Kingdom for the pricing power of energy and commodity , and shake the status of the US dollar's oil currency, and increase the proportion of the oil RMB.With these countries developing together, China's manufacturing industry also has a greater market space.
Only after achieving these goals can China have the conditions and confidence to no longer rely on US and European currencies, which can reduce the demand for Western currencies such as the US dollar and euro, causing the decline of the US dollar and euro status, and also choose the time and create conditions to link the settlement of the RMB with China's largest manufacturing system.
Once the RMB is linked to the world's oil and gas trade and industrial products trading, it sounds the death knell of the US dollar. Other important Western currencies relying on the US dollar will also sink together. Although this is a long process, it does not take that long to form an irreversible trend of Western currency decline.
Once the US dollar loses its existing status, the function of transferring wealth through currency and transferring crisis disappears, and the US de-industrialization will change from the US's fatal weakness to a fatal crisis. The currency that the United States over-issued will quickly flood the United States.
These goals are very grand, and only in this way can they constitute a century of change. More importantly, the rise of China's country and national rejuvenation must be accompanied by the realization of these goals in order to break through the constraints of the United States and the West on China's development.
The United States is the pinnacle of Western countries' development, because within the scope of Western countries, there is no longer a country with a larger land area, a larger population and resources. The completion of the integration of economy and security in the Asian continent has also ruled out the rise of maritime countries in the past 500 years and the history of the ocean dominating the world situation. The center of gravity of the world's population and the center of gravity of the economy overlap. The world's largest continent has found its due position in history. China has also achieved national rejuvenation, and the status of the East and the West has been reversed again. A century of changes have been completed.
This process also takes a long time. What China needs is to expand the capacity of SCO and BRICS in as short as possible, so that more countries in the world can feel that such a trend has been formed.
Taiwan issue is an important issue in the rise from the Sino-US (Japan) game to the Eastern and Western game in this major change. After Pelosi visited Taiwan, he expressed his support for "one China". According to Hua Chunying , "Now there are more than 160 countries behind China, who are standing on the right side of history and on the side of fairness and justice", which is in sharp contrast with the statements of G7 and some European countries.
Europe and the United States are increasingly consistent with China's position. Behind it is the common interests found by the United States and Europe on curbing China's rise. In the Western dual thinking model, they worry that China's becoming a developed country is the end of Western development. The upper limit for China tolerated by the United States and the West is to become a regional power in East Asia and an economically underdeveloped country. To this end, they must set restrictions on China's development from the perspective of economic and geopolitical space, and do not allow breakthroughs:
The upper limit of industrial division of labor allowed by the United States and the West is that China's manufacturing industry stays at the middle and low end of the global industrial chain, no longer seeks upgrades, and locks China's development ceiling in its state before development.
The United States and the West also do not allow China to achieve unity. In the eyes of the United States and the West, if China achieves unity and immediately faces the Pacific Ocean, China will go from a continental country dominated by internal water to a country facing the ocean and backed by Eurasian continent and with equal rights of way and sea rights. Especially once China completes united front for Asia-European continental rights, behind it is Russia, Central Asia, , Middle East and even Southeast Asia, the world's largest land plate, which is composed of Southeast Asia, can face the Pacific Ocean and compete for maritime rights in the Pacific Ocean. The South China Sea , which directly controls the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, will also be dominated by China, and the United States and the West have zero tolerance for China's recovery of Taiwan.
Because of the addition of Europe, solving the Taiwan issue is no longer just a contest between China and the United States and Japan, but is affecting the main force in the world.
The United States and the West have placed China's Taiwan issue at a height that is related to the future of China and the United States and the West.
What is China most needed now? It's time.What makes the United States and Europe most anxious? It's also time. Given another five-year development opportunity period, many suspense issues will no longer be problems.
So, on the Taiwan issue, the United States ended its vague strategy and began to take offensives and provocations. The United States wanted to increase its armed speed against Taiwan, and Europe began to extend its hands to the Taiwan Strait that is thousands of miles away (and East China Sea and South China Sea). Europe began to reach its hands to the Taiwan Strait (along with the East China Sea and the South China Sea).
For China, solving the Taiwan issue must also be combined with ending Western hegemony, but the timing and path may be more than one:
1. First solve the Taiwan issue and then end Western hegemony. Let’s not consider the economic cost first, and resolve the Taiwan issue before the United States completely loses its military intervention capabilities. China now has this capability. Under this circumstance, China will face joint economic sanctions from the United States, Europe and Japan before it has completed industrial upgrading and the West still has considerable economic countermeasures, including seizing China's assets in Western economies. The United States is also likely to cut off China's offshore energy and commodity export channels, and China and the West quickly enter a state of full or partial decoupling.
As for whether comprehensive or partial decoupling is possible, it depends on whether the West can find similar alternatives with similar prices. As long as China can withstand these sanctions, the recession between the United States and Europe will accelerate. When Pelosi visited Taiwan, it was a relatively good time. Because at this time, the United States and the West are jointly sanctioning Russia, inflation between the United States and Europe is very serious, and the reconstruction of the industrial chain and supply chain led by the United States has just begun. It is also necessary for China's high-quality and low-priced commodities to curb the out-of-control domestic inflation. Under this situation, the United States and the West will impose economic sanctions on China, and they will have some concerns.
2, the Taiwan issue and the end of Western hegemony are combined. When Russia temporarily drags down part of the US and the West, and the United States has not yet officially organized a containment and unification front against China, China seizes the time to prepare, including:
military struggle preparations are more fully prepared, and China's "regional denial" capabilities extend to the east of Guam in the Pacific direction. In this region, China has the ability to comprehensively and completely defeat all military intervention operations. The security dominance in the South China Sea places Malacca in the area covered by China's military power. It is best to have a forward base for the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean. After the land channel of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is completed, the army also has a fast channel for power delivery, and the two form a close cooperation.
The key shortcomings of the industrial chain have been basically solved, industrial upgrading has been basically completed, and the chip self-sufficiency rate will be increased to 70% in 2025 according to the original plan. It seems that it is not difficult now, but at least 50% self-sufficiency rate should be achieved.
The economic internal circulation has achieved a major breakthrough. The most important thing about the economic internal circulation is that domestic demand can digest more production capacity. The fundamental solution to this problem is to accelerate the implementation of common prosperity, narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, and allow more people to have the ability to consume.
De-monetization of trade settlement with more countries will reduce China's dependence on the US dollar-based Western currency reserves and reduce China's assets in the US and Western financial and economic systems.
SCO and BRICS expand, absorbing key node countries along the Belt and Road Initiative, important energy countries, and countries with important geostrategic positions, and making good response measures and alternative development space for the joint implementation of sanctions against China by the United States, Europe and Japan. If the United States, Europe and Japan dare to do this, they will lead these countries to follow the path of surrounding cities in the countryside, unite the vast number of developing countries, and isolate the United States and the Western countries.
China should also systematically clean up those alien forces that are likely to cooperate with the inside and outside at any time to eliminate restrictions and threaten China's biggest shortcomings.
No matter what, the time to solve the unified problem will not be long. This is a major task that China must achieve to achieve national rise and national rejuvenation, and it is also the common expectation of all Chinese people with Chinese hearts.
