Recently, there have been more and more discussions on whether Russia will launch nuclear bombs in global media, because many people believe that Russia is already at a disadvantage and this possibility is getting greater and greater.
However, there are more conceptual discussions, fewer technical discussions, more worries and less optimistic. Even those who believe that Russia will not launch the nuclear war, all believe that once it really breaks out, the end of mankind will come.
Therefore, when a man named John Mark MacDonald, who claimed to have studied nuclear war for nearly 40 years, came out to express a completely different view, it felt a bit shocking.
This is just as he said: "I will give you an answer that surprises you."
And the core of his point of view, from the main article to various replies, is mainly 2 points:
, nuclear weapon is the most powerful weapon at present, and it is crazy not to be afraid and respect this power.
However, the power of nuclear weapons has also been deified and demonized. Even if a large-scale nuclear exchange breaks out, it will not end civilization and lead to the extinction of human beings.
It is far from a magical weapon that can destroy the world with an explosion. It will not cause " core winter ", it is "the wolf is coming" and "panic selling".
, the Russian nuclear arsenal is all used in Ukrainian , and will not substantially change the course of the war. Nuclear wars are harmful to Russia but not beneficial.
So what does it support MacDonald's point of view? Let's continue to summarize.
, according to official public information, the United States conducted approximately 1,054 nuclear tests from 1945 to 1992.
There are various types and uses, ranging from 20 kiloton equivalents to 10 megatons, 15 megatons, etc.
Just imagine how many nuclear explosions have been made in the whole world? Have they caused "nuclear winter"? Has the Earth been destroyed?
. The United States dropped two atomic bombs data on Japan in World War II . After many tampering and exaggerating, there is no evidence to support it.
Scholars say that there has been destroyed and the impact will reach thousands of years, but the population of those two cities is now close to 1.5 million. The residents there are eating local agricultural products, and their lifespan is the highest in the world.
So how powerful and influence are nuclear weapons? Those who "sell fear" are already talking nonsense.
3, the Chernobyl nuclear explosion disaster, occurred in Ukraine. It is known as the largest concentrated radioactive material in history. Its radioactive peaks record the entire continent of Europe and most of Asia. The exact number cannot be determined, but "it is 400 times the nuclear bomb" , is a commonly cited number.
We have been told again and again that no creature can survive in the area, and the time may be thousands of years.
However, what is the truth? 30 people died directly in the accident. In the 36 years after the disaster, according to relevant research in Europe and Asia, a total of 60 people died of radioactive dust. Researchers estimate that this number may rise to 2,000 people over the next 70 years.
In this way, this disaster is equivalent to a "nuclear bomb 400 times" and the chance of death is equivalent to being hit by lightning.
And, around Chernobyl , there has never been a so-called nuclear wasteland, let alone lasting for thousands of years. Some plants and animals do die from radioactive dust, but not all, not even most.
The restricted area around Chernobyl has become a de facto nature reserve. There are lush forests and wild animals. Some people who own property in the restricted area have moved back and seem to be doing well.As long as you don't enter the reactor building, it seems that there will be no more danger. This is completely inconsistent with everything we have heard about the long-term effects of radiation.
4, the actual power of the explosion has almost nothing to do with their actual destructive power.
Because they can actually be classified as burning weapons, they are setting things on fire. That is, you can ignite something two miles away from the actual explosion point.
Apart from this, the nuclear explosion is very bright and can blind people 20-30 miles away. They also produce hurricane as the air around the explosion expands and contracts. If you are outside, unshielded, and within a mile of the nuclear explosion, you will die.
So this will lead to a series of the most common problems:
Nuclear explosion converts some radioactive cores into pure energy and hard radiation. It is equivalent to a small piece of sun, appearing in the atmosphere for a few minutes. It's simple, but the devil is in the details.
(1) Most radiation is heat radiation or visible radiation, also known as heat and light. This radiation only exists for a few minutes of a second and then disappears, so it only leaves its impact.
(2) It also produces a small amount of α and β particles (hard radiation). But this radiation is absorbed by the first solid object it encounters. according to the law of inverse cubic proportion, which means that its effect decreases very quickly.
(3) nuclear warhead generates hard radiation in many ways, which of course can be fatal. But the way they are displayed in the media is the opposite of its danger.
Because radioisotope has the well-known half-life , which is different from what you have been told throughout your life, that the longer the half-life, the smaller the danger.
In fact, any radioactive isotope with a half-life of more than 100,000 years is not a radiation hazard at all. What is really dangerous are those fatal and short-lived isotopes .
They usually run out in a few days and disappear.
…Wait, let’s go, in short (there are many I can’t understand), McDonald means that if you are within the damage range (including the lethal radiation dose range) and have direct vision, you will die. Otherwise, there is a high possibility that you will survive. And this is also the reason why the theoretical and realistic gaps arise between Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb explosion.
4, the atomic bomb explosions in Hiroshima and Nagasaki cannot be compared with the present, but the current cities are different from before.
Hiroshima and Nagasaki were basically a structure of wood and paper. In fact, they were basically brick houses that did not fall, and the explosion caused a fire, which burned most of the area.
And the current building is reinforced concrete structure , it is obviously a revelation:
nuclear explosion is mainly a sight killer. Most of the "radiation" produced by nuclear explosions is infrared radiation, or the same heat as gas stoves and fireplaces. If you are not outside, you are likely to survive even in an explosion area.
Unless the building you are in collapsed or caught fire, making it impossible for you to leave, or you happen to be in front of the window and you can see the explosion directly.
Then this means that only one nuclear missile detonated in the center of Kiev, and no one would believe that this was a real nuclear explosion. Because the city is still there, all the main buildings still stand.
5. Generally speaking, nuclear explosions can only burn 2-3 square miles of territory on average, while a city of Kiev, , will require 200 warheads to cover the entire city.
So the question is, whether Russia has this ability is questionable.
Because the numbers of the Russian nuclear arsenal come from the Soviet Union, not Russia, it's like a complete farce.
Russia did not see nuclear bombs production, but it had experimental losses. If these are subtracted, it theoretically has about 9,000 warheads.
However, first, Russia does not have enough delivery systems to place these warheads, and second, the shelf life of nuclear warheads is very short.
It first requires a detonator made of conventional explosives, which are one of the most sophisticated projects in human history, and if any of these explosives deteriorate slightly, the nuclear warheads will not explode.
Then it needs to be rebuilt at least every five years and needs to be maintained more frequently than this. Even so, a 20-year-old warhead is a piece of garbage. This is not only time-consuming, but also cost money.
So, look at how Russia performs in this war, look at those tanks like scrap, can you believe that their nuclear bombs are normal?
So, the nuclear arsenal is obviously a card of Russia. Whether it dares to play it is a problem.
Once this is a junk card, the Russian affairs will be really big.
6, some other instructions on nuclear explosion.
(1) There are four categories of nuclear devices: air blasting, bunker destroyer, torpedo and landmines. Contact or ground explosion bombs are just talked about but not shown.
Other types of nuclear bombs, including neutron bombs, super nuclear bombs tested by the Soviet Union in 1961, were either banned by the treaty, impractical, or failed in the plan and were abandoned.
so now there are only fission and fusion nuclear bombs.
fission warhead works through two-stage explosions, which must be very accurate. The fusion warhead has a three-stage explosion, which is several orders of magnitude more complicated than the fission warhead. But no matter how they are, they must follow the laws of physics.
is even the most powerful nuclear warhead, it cannot kill millions of people and cause great destruction.
(2) electromagnetic pulse has also been exaggerated.
The first thing the United States discovered in the atom test of Bikini Atoll was that it was almost impossible to sink an armored warship with nuclear air. A properly locked warship can not only survive nuclear air strikes, but also almost completely combat-effective...
Nuclear Fear Trafficking will always make you believe that any electronic device within the range of a nuclear explosion will be destroyed and cannot be repaired, so let us return to the Stone Age. But the test results show that analog devices are completely unaffected by EMP, and digital devices can, depending on how close they are to the explosion.
Similarly, the inverse cube law sets the scope of influence of things.
So, can EMP destroy the power grid? No, power generation is completely done using a simulation machine. In addition, lightning can also produce electromagnetic pulses, and the power grid is hit thousands of times a year by lightning. A few digital control devices have good protection and manual backups that can be restored online within hours even if directly hit by an air-detonated nuclear bomb. If you are in the same city as nuclear strike , you will most likely lose your electronic device. If you are a few miles away, your equipment is safe.
(3) This planet is a pretty big place, with wildfires in the western United States and Australia burning down larger areas. Mount St. Helens sends about 3 cubic miles of volcanic ash into the atmosphere. That's why the nuclear winter scene was debunked. This is several orders of magnitude greater than nuclear exchange.
(4) The reason why the "nuclear winter" was exposed can also be used in the words of "Star Wars", that is: the power of the nuclear warhead seems insignificant under the power of a major volcanic eruption.The calculation used to justify the nuclear winter scenario is actually based on the premise that
requires that all nuclear devices be set up so that their explosions are concentrated in discharging as much dust as possible into the atmosphere, and that all dust will remain in the upper atmosphere.
and St. Helens volcano eruption shows that these calculations are hopeless "optimism". Compared to real-world data, nuclear winter is nothing more than a completely collapsed chicken theory.
not just has no warhead set to do this, but there is, the joint arsenal of all nuclear powers in the world, and there is not enough power to trigger a nuclear winter.
(5) Million-ton warheads do exist, but each cost up to hundreds of millions of dollars and can only be deployed on intercontinental ballistic missile vehicles or gravity bombs carried by heavy bombs.
There is no evidence that these million-ton warheads survived in Russia.
So McDonald insisted on his point of view during the debate:
Imagined a Russian nuclear arsenal filled with warheads of tens of millions of tons did not exist even at the heyday of Soviet power.
The Russian arsenal equipped with a limited number of tactical warheads does not have the ability to destroy millions of square miles of Ukraine.
(6) MacDonald repeatedly stated that all this does not mean that nuclear weapons can be ignored, can be manufactured or fired at will. In fact, nuclear bombs are indeed very dangerous, and nuclear war is the worst thing to do.
He just wanted to say that the power of nuclear weapons has been infinitely exaggerated and used to create panic and threats. The outbreak of a nuclear war will not make the earth unchanged, but the earth has amazing recovery capabilities, and humans also have amazing recovery capabilities.
So he believes that the earth will not be destroyed because of this, and human beings will not be extinct because of this. No matter what, human beings should work hard for a better future, rather than be scared to death.
...Okay, I won't say much about other things that I don't think are very important. Of course, there will be people who refute McDonald's point of view, but I think this person really knows what he is talking about.
At least, he made a unique voice that could bring a lot of thoughts, which have exceeded the discussion of nuclear weapons itself.
Finally, one of the related topics that I am most interested in is that some people say, I agree with your point of view on the nuclear bomb itself, but I don’t agree with what you said that nuclear bombs will not change the course of the war.
Because as long as a nuclear bomb falls into Ukraine, Ukraine may collapse, and panic may break out around the world, and common bank runs, rush to buy goods, traffic congestion, medical paralysis, and chaos in public security. Everyone has reason to believe that World War III has begun.
Therefore, the economic and social structure damage after the nuclear explosion is the most serious. Nuclear bombs may not kill millions directly, but it can kill millions indirectly, and more.
Otherwise, look at how Americans perform during the epidemic. With just a little inconvenience, so many catastrophic events have occurred.
Let’s look at Tokyo, Japan. As people believe that water supply is contaminated, a surge in mineral water purchases emerged. It was later proved that there was no problem with the water, but many people got sick because they drank too much mineral water.
Haha, these words remind me that the most destructive person in the world is actually always human beings themselves.
• END
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