On December 7, 1941, as the Japanese Navy Combined Fleet suddenly attacked the U.S. Navy Pacific Fleet's base in Hawaii, the Pacific War that shocked the world broke out. Immediately afterwards, the United States declared war on the Axis powers, and the scale of World War II reached its peak.
At that time, Japan dared to challenge the United States alone, except that the United States stepped up its blockade of Japanese materials, which made Japan unable to sustain its invasion and expansion. The fundamental reason was that the top Japanese officials at that time were all possessed by gamblers. In particular, the commander-in-chief of the Japanese Navy Combined Fleet, Yamamoto Izuru 2, as a veritable gambler, has long made up his mind to "decide the world with one battle."
Knowing that Japan's strength is not enough to beat the United States, Yamamoto Iroku hopes to an unprecedentedly fierce sneak attack, forcing the United States to return to the negotiating table and make concessions in favor of Japan.
Faced with Japan's gamble, the United States responded to the end, and eventually buried the Japanese Navy Combined Fleet and eventually became an important force in eliminating the Japanese fascism.
As a small country with a narrow and dense population, Japan can only choose a gambling strategy of "death if you cannot win" when its own strength is not enough to support the grand goal of dominating East Asia and even the world. Sino-Japanese War , Russo-Japanese War and World War II are all vivid interpretations of Japan's "gamblerism".
In fact, until after World War II, Japan was also a desperate development route in mobile phones, hydrogen energy , etc., which made Japan's related industries flourish for a while, but inevitably went all the way.
Japan's consistent gambler thinking, in addition to the island country environment that nurtures narrow and paranoid thinking characteristics and the flaw in the strategic vision of Yiye's goal, the more important reason is that Japan's lack of resources has forced Japan to bet on its entire wealth in order to achieve its strategic goals. This is also the tragedy of all small countries.
But looking at the world, we can find an incredible reality, that is, gamblerism is not only popular among small countries, but many big countries are also loyal fans of gamblerism, especially Russia.
As the country with the widest land area in the world, Russia not only accounts for 5% of the world's oil reserves, 27.5% of the world's natural gas reserves, 17.3% of the world's coal reserves, and 20% of the world's forest stock and the second-ranked surface runoff. As for other resources, there are even more numerous.
However, even with the resources of almost all countries, Russia still remains unchanged to "gamble", especially the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. From pressing the start button at the beginning, to "partially mobilizing" 300,000 yuan, to promoting the "referendum to Russia" in the four eastern states of Ukraine , and finally to repeatedly expressing the right to use nuclear weapon when necessary, it can be said that every step is a thrilling gamble. If you are not careful, you may lose all the game, or the whole world will be buried with you.
So, it is obviously a big country that is like a fake, why does Russia always like to do some small country operations that are fun? Jingyeshi believes that the direct reason has been a "gambler" in the standard sense since ancient times. The fundamental reason is that Russia has never had a real thinking of a great power.
Russia's vast territory of 17.09 million square kilometers is not given by charging phone bills, but by the Russians step by step.
Since breaking away from the rule of the Golden Horde in 1480, Tsarist Russia, which inherited the Mongolian "soil-eating" gene, has begun a great power rise. Its territory has increased by more than 400 times in more than 400 years. Tsarist Russia has also jumped from a small principality in the corner of the Eastern European plain to a great empire across Asia, Europe and the United States.
territorial expansion itself is understandable. After all, the rise of almost all major powers is accompanied by continuous expansion of territory. But Russia's territory has expanded too quickly, especially the expansion of Far East , which can almost be described as a horse-drawn land.With the efforts of the semi- mercenary Cossack , the Far East, which has an area of more than 10 million square kilometers, has returned to Russia and Turkey for about 100 years.
As the saying goes, "It is easy to get, it is easy to lose, it is easy to lose." Tsarist Russia wants to digest these new lands, of course, not "steady and steady" by the continuous expansion of the influence of the Central Plains dynasty, but "losing people to save the land". By expelling or even massacring the indigenous people and moving into the Russians, the purpose of racial blood exchange and consolidating rule.
is of course an immediate effect, including today's four states in Wudong. The fundamental reason why they have strong centripetal force on Russia is that these regions have undergone hundreds of years of racial blood exchange in the Tsarist Russian Empire, and naturally they are flocking to Russia.
But the problem is that the result of this approach is that except for , the Russian ethnic group, , all other ethnic groups are not satisfied. In addition, the "Greater Russian"ism formed by Tsarist Russia during the rise of a great power is becoming popular, and the resentment of other ethnic groups towards the Russians is increasing day by day. It can be seen that non-Eastern Slavic Russians are dissatisfied with the "partial mobilization" of Putin.
And what is more embarrassing than the continuous intensification of ethnic conflicts is that no matter how large the territory is, it is the "one-man show" of the Russian race, so territorial expansion has not brought great national unity to Russia and the unity of all ethnic groups working together, which fundamentally limits Russia's ability to mobilize resources.
Therefore, Russia, which is always "one person is fighting", has no increasing vision and height due to territorial expansion. The state that Russia presents is that every war is playing hard.
Originally, according to the general rules of gambling, the more bets the greater the benefits you may win. But the Russian army is as warlike and not good at fighting, and is often beaten to the ground with more and less. Therefore, Russia in history will win in a smooth period, but will also return to the pre-liberation night due to the disastrous defeat of a certain war.
For example, after Crimean War in 1853, Tsarist Russia lost its status as a "European military police" and was completely strangled by Ottoman Empire ; after the crushing defeat in 1905, it was forced to withdraw from the Northeast, and the infamous "Yellow Russia" plan also went bankrupt; World War I was beaten to the point of being beaten by the German army, even Romanov dynasty collapsed, and eventually Russia embarked on the road of socialism...
Although the foundation of a great power makes Russia afford to bet and lose, the game between great powers is essentially not a "king bomb" with two two kings at the beginning, nor is it a one-time deal for one's own deed.
After all, big countries are not as easy to defeat as small countries, especially after nuclear weapons emerge. For the sake of differences, great powers are very "restrained". If they can quarrel, they will not take action. If they can " Cold War ", they will never "hot war". This also means that Russia will not be easily defeated, but it will be difficult to easily defeat other major powers.
More importantly, the game between big powers has always been a strife between several groups, such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization led by the United States, and the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization led by Russia. Under such circumstances, a big country needs to protect the interests of its followers, just like a middle-aged man with old and young superiors.
This determines that Russia cannot be "involved", to put it bluntly. You just can't bet a lot. After all, once you lose, it's not only yourself, but also the collective.
But Russia couldn't bear it anymore. Since After the collapse of , it believed the nonsense that NATO would not expand eastward, and opened its arms and allowed Western countries to take advantage of it. The situation facing Russia is becoming more and more passive. Especially after 5 rounds of NATO's eastward expansion of , except for Ukraine and Belarus , Russia has no more strategic space for maneuver in Eastern Europe.
And Ukraine, as a country that is also rampant in oligarchy, has long made up its mind to "go westward", which will inevitably threaten the security of Russia's southwest gate, so Russia and Ukraine finally met.
It should be said that if you can't bear it, you don't need to endure it anymore. Russia has no problem with fighting against when there is no way out.But the problem is that Gulf War deeply stimulated this country that believed in gangsism and promoted it to implement reforms that severely weakened the army. The total strength was sharply reduced from 4.3 million to 1.2 million, of which the army had only 250,000.
Although a series of elite reforms such as division-to-brigade and regiment-to-battalion reforms have been carried out, even the war is modern, more army needs to act as the backbone. What's more, the Russian army has been accustomed to fighting less in history, so when 200,000 Russian troops face 600,000 Ukrainian troops, it is not surprising that they are passive in Kharkov .
In Jingyeshi's view, Russia, as a "big power", should be prepared to kill a lion and kill with one blow before she is determined to put down her figure. Instead of getting stuck in the quagmire and trying to turn defeat into victory through the cold winter. After all, no matter how cold the winter is, it is also the one who freezes to death. EU rather than the United States. Moreover, as the second brother of the Soviet Union in the past, Ukraine had no reason not to resist the freezing. Russia, however, had to consume a lot of national strength due to being deeply trapped in the quagmire of war, endured huge pressure from the Western world, and was even more struggling and exhausted when dealing with threats and challenges in other directions.
Although Russia has made a "partial mobilization" and promoted the "public referendum to Russia" in the four eastern Ukrainian states, Jingyeshi believes that this is bound to be another big gamble. Because Medvedev 's nuclear threat and cannot protect this "new territory". You should know that although Ukraine has already taken the initiative to abandon its nuclear power, NATO behind it is also holding the nuclear weapons in its hands. Russia's basic starting point for winning by nuclear power is to bet that NATO will not fight for Ukraine, and it will not dare to die with Russia.
. Whether NATO dares to accept the challenge, Russia has paid an extremely tragic price. After all, from today's perspective, although both Russia and NATO are betting on Ukraine, it seems that only Russia is betting, for its own national destiny.
So, is the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine constantly escalating or slumping? Jingyeshi believes that it depends on whether Putin wants to continue gambling, and more on how much gambling money Russia still has.
If NATO defaults to all four eastern Ukrainian states entering Russian territory, that is, it recognizes Russia's victory in the gamble, then Ukraine will be torn apart and the forces of the United States and Russia are temporarily balanced. Otherwise, Russia will need to continue betting until it loses completely and even dies with NATO.
has many omissions, please correct me.
I am Jingyeshi, and I look forward to your attention.
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