7 In March, according to the Russian "Izvestia" report, Belarusian President Lukashenko said that the country is currently facing security threats from the West. He has ordered Belarusian troops to target the capital decision-making centers of Western countries. If NATO countries dare If we take action against Gomel and other cities in Belarus , Belarus will immediately counterattack.
Moreover, Lukashenko also mentioned nuclear weapons during the conversation. Not long ago, Belarus has allowed the Russian "Iskander-M" missile system to be stationed in Belarus. This missile can carry nuclear warheads . Lukashenko said that he had discussed it with Putin not long ago, and Belarus was ready to use nuclear weapons to fight back against the West.
According to Russian media disclosures, Lukashenko has asked units of the Belarusian armed forces to target the capitals of Western countries after the West imposed secondary sanctions on Belarus and deployed additional troops to neighboring countries around Belarus. Where is the "red line" in order to make it clear to Western countries, especially NATO ? Lukashenko mentioned a number of place names, including Gomel, Mozyr Refinery, Brest Airport and Luninets. Lukashenko claimed that if these areas were attacked, Belarus would retaliate decisively. In order to convince Western countries of Belarus' determination, he emphasized that Belarus has sufficient equipment for counterattacks. The rocket launchers and missiles equipped by the Belarusian army can cover the capitals of NATO member states.
The missiles Lukashenko mentioned refer to an important military cooperation he and Putin reached at the end of June. On June 30, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Belarus. Before the visit, Russia and Belarus had reached a preliminary agreement on the deployment of nuclear weapons. Russia will respond to Belarus’s request and prepare to hand over some nuclear weapons to Belarus. This is a sign of Russia’s A positive response to what Kaschenko envisioned in his Independence Day speech. But considering that nuclear weapons cannot only have warheads and no loading tools. In this regard, when Lukashenko visited Russia on June 25, he had reached an agreement with Putin. Putin promised to provide Belarus with part of the "Iskander-M" tactical missile system in the next few months. At the same time, Assist Belarus in upgrading and modifying existing Su-25 "Frogfoot" fighter jets. It is worth mentioning that Russia emphasized that the missiles provided to the Belarusian troops are capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
Russia’s decision is actually related to Belarus’s nuclear policy adjustments in recent months. On the fifth day after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, Belarus held a national referendum on amending the constitution, with 60% of the votes supporting Belarus' withdrawal from the ranks of non-nuclear countries. This is a major adjustment of Belarus’ nuclear policy in the past 30 years since it joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in 1992. On the one hand, it is related to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and on the other hand, it also confirms the folk saying "Thirty years in Hedong, thirty years in Hexi." The current international situation has forced Belarus to adjust its strategy.
In addition to the changes in the international situation, there is another reason that prompted Lukashenko to publicly speak harshly against NATO in recent days. On July 2, local time, Lukashenko publicly stated that Ukraine had used missiles to attack Belarus three days ago. This news attracted great attention from the outside world. It is reported that Lukashenko talked about the matter at a celebration on the eve of Independence Day. He said: Ukrainian troops tried to attack military facilities in Belarus, but were intercepted by Belarusian air defense forces. The weapon that successfully intercepted these missiles was the Russian Pantsir system. But what is interesting is that Lukashenko did not go into more details, did not mention how many missiles Ukraine launched and how many were intercepted by the Belarusian military. He seemed intent on downplaying the matter, and Ukraine also remained silent on the matter without any response.
Judging from the history of human geopolitical conflicts, many problems that are deliberately downplayed are often not simple, in order to avoid more serious problems. After talking about the Ukrainian missile attack on Belarus, Lukashenko publicly refuted the statement that Belarus's diplomacy and military were "controlled by Russia."It is pointed out that the West's move is to prolong the conflict and create regional tension. On the key issue of whether Belarus will intervene in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he emphasized that Belarus does not want to fight Ukraine and does not need a war, but Belarus will launch counterattacks if its territory is invaded. Judging from a series of recent statements by Belarusian officials, it is clear that Belarus has realized that NATO may expand the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In order to avoid becoming the next target of NATO, Belarus must make a decisive decision and restore its nuclear status. At the same time, make military preparations.
The reason why Belarus feels tremendous pressure is due to two factors:
The first is the geographical pattern. Belarus, Russia and Ukraine are triangular adjacent relationships . In the past, when the relations between the three countries were good, they could form a good strategic binding relationship in Eastern Europe. As Ukraine completely tilts towards the West, Belarus has actually become Russia's only reliable ally in Eastern Europe and has become "inevitable". Especially as Finland and Sweden may join NATO, Belarus's future war risks will increase sharply. I am afraid that there is only one way before Belarus, which is to stand firmly with Russia.
The second is military cooperation. Russia and Belarus have a close military cooperation relationship. All the weapons of the Belarusian troops are Soviet-style, and the combat system has completely inherited the system of the Soviet army in the past. In the field of military technology, the two countries are also long-term cooperative partners and share what they need. If Belarus breaks away from Russia, its military construction and military industry development will be in huge difficulties. Therefore, Belarus needs to work hard to avoid becoming "the second Ukraine" and avoid being caught in the middle, leading to an uncertain future.
In fact, for Belarus, the direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will affect Belarus's national policy, and then affect the global pattern. This is specifically reflected in three aspects: the impact on Russia-Belarus relations. If the war expands, the relations between Belarus and Russia may reach an all-time high. Europe will fall into a mode of all-out confrontation, and the "new Cold War" will become a reality. NATO will be more united than ever, which is good for the United States.
Therefore, for Belarus, Lukashenko stated his position on the one hand that Belarus has no intention of going to war with Ukraine and is not interested in war. At the same time, he also emphasized that Belarus is fully prepared. Lukashenko hopes to use this move to hint to the West: Belarus hopes that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine can be eased, but Belarus will not be afraid of the threat of NATO and will fight side by side with Russia at critical moments to maintain peace and stability in Europe.
