After the fall of Severodonetsk, the situation in Lisichansk is not optimistic either. News from Russia shows that Ukrainian troops are retreating from Lisichansk. The Russian army is blocked outside the "channel" to allow more Ukrainian troops to evacuate. However, due to a serious lack of mobile equipment, especially wheeled armored vehicles, and infantry fighting vehicles, the Lugansk militiamen who were on the front line were unable to pursue them. Of course, even if they caught up, they would be severely beaten. These militiamen also lacked heavy weapons.
The battle for Lischichansk is likely to end within a week. In other words, the Kremlin will soon announce that it has completed the second phase of the "special military operation", which is the "complete liberation of Donbass ". However, some analysts believe that after paying a heavy price and continuing to delay, the Russian army achieved only tactical victories in Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, which may allow the Kremlin to "decently" gain publicity. victory, but the main force of the Ukrainian army was not attacked.
These withdrawn troops and those veterans who have returned after recovering from injuries will make it more difficult for the Ukrainian army to fight, especially as NATO continues to upgrade its military assistance. Moscow's use of anti-ship missiles , including "Onyx" and "Kitchen", which are not suitable for ground attacks, not only failed to hit any effective military targets, but also continuously hit residential buildings, kindergartens and shopping malls, which made the Kremlin The government has increased international pressure while spurring further Western military aid to Ukraine.
Injured Ukrainian couple in Kremenchug shopping center holding hands in hospital
The withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Severodonetsk and Lischichansk may allow Moscow to declare a "major victory" and complete a "special victory" The "primary purpose" of military operations", but it is clear that the Ukrainian government and the West do not intend to accept this statement. The Ukrainian army will continue to try to retake these two cities, and in places such as Kharkiv and Kherson, the Russian and Ukrainian armies are still fighting fiercely. While its own cities are being bombarded by Russian artillery, the Ukrainian army's strike capabilities have also become more precise. The United States has begun to share real-time intelligence on important Russian targets with Ukraine. The biggest difference between the Russian and Ukrainian armies is that the Ukrainian army has not yet attacked Russia. The city is attacked.
12 PzH2000s have all been delivered, and more will follow
As far as the current war situation is concerned, the Russian army still holds the initiative on the battlefield, and the strength comparison between the Russian and Ukrainian armies has not yet reached the critical point where the transformation occurs. After winning Beidun After Netsk and Lisichansk, the Russian army may resume its offensive in the Izyum area and strive to bring Ukraine's second largest city Kharkiv back into artillery range. However, some information revealed by the Kremlin shows that under the surface, perhaps the predictions of Russia's top leaders about the future may not be as strong as they seem:
Former Russian President and current Vice Chairman of the Russian Federal Security Council Medvedev once again stated that Crimea is part of Russia. Any attempt to "invade" Crimea will be regarded as a declaration of war against Russia. Any NATO member doing so will mean a conflict between Russia and NATO. direct conflict, triggering World War III.
Medvedev's speech is considered to be related to Ukraine's recent changes in international status. The Russian government has actually recognized Ukraine as a EU candidate country and allowed Ukraine to become a full member of the EU, but it still does not allow Ukraine to become a member of NATO. Once Ukraine becomes a member of NATO, Ukraine's action to retake Crimea will become a matter for NATO as a whole: NATO, like most countries and international organizations around the world, does not recognize Crimea as Russian territory. is the territory of Ukraine.
Now, Ukraine is still far away from taking back Crimea, but it is also the best time for Ukraine to take back Crimea. After all, almost the entire West is supporting Ukraine with practical actions to maintain its territorial and sovereign integrity. At this time, Ukraine cannot take back Crimea from the nuclear power Russia with its own strength.The relationship between NATO and Russia is deteriorating at a speed that is visible to the naked eye, and exchanges between the two sides have become almost severed due to "special military operations." NATO has demonstrated its attitude of treating Russia as a strategic threat regardless of whether it is military assistance. Or intelligence sharing, NATO is doing everything except sending troops directly.
Russia is locked in a high-intensity war of attrition in Ukraine from which it is difficult to escape. It is neither like the Russia-Georgia war in 2008 nor the Afghanistan war in the 1980s. The former was a blitzkrieg. The Russian army left after the fight, which had a profound political and economic impact on Georgia. The other is that the Soviet army occupied the entire territory of Afghanistan in a short period of time, and the subsequent war was a low-intensity security war. But in Ukraine, the Russian army's high-intensity war of attrition is actually losing blood rapidly. With the Russian economy gradually losing its hematopoietic function, how long can it be sustained? Ukraine has the support of the entire West, but what about Russia?
