Author: Yang Minqing (Senior Researcher of Chinese Think Tank, Researcher of Xinhua News Agency World Issues Research Center)
Source: Chinese Think Tank Public Account
In view of the fact that the Russia-Ukraine war is becoming more and more intense and will become protracted, it is expensive to support Ukraine to engage in proxy wars. The war with Russia has become increasingly violent and brutal. There are voices in the mainstream media in Western countries that want to end the Russia-Ukraine war as soon as possible. However, relevant suggestions are difficult to be adopted by policymakers in Western countries led by the United States. At best, they are just an anti-war voice from American society.
The escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to endless
The Russia-Ukraine war has been more than a hundred days now. Although Western countries led by the United States have provided a lot of material support to Ukraine and even formed a so-called unity situation on the surface, they are also constantly Under tremendous political and economic pressure, some people continue to propose ending this war as soon as possible.
Recently, the so-called mainstream media in Western countries, including the United States' New York Times , have increasingly called for Russia and Ukraine to negotiate to resolve disputes.
In May 2022, Henri Guaino, a senior adviser to former French President Nicolas Sarkozy, published an article in Le Figaro warning that under the short-sighted leadership of certain American politicians, European countries were " Sleepwalking" into the war with Russia. "Sleepwalking" is a metaphor that historian Christopher Clark once used to describe the origins of World War I, and Guaino borrows this metaphor here to mean that it is a nightmare.
Christopher Caldwell, a senior researcher at the Claremont Institute in the United States, wrote in the media that Russia is directly responsible for the current Ukraine conflict. However, it was the United States that turned this tragic regional dispute into a potential world war. . The Western world, led by the United States, has misunderstood the logic of this war, which will most likely lead to an endless conflict that will not bring peace to countries including the United States.
Christopher Caldwell said that in 2014, the United States supported a so-called popular coup that eventually turned into a violent movement against Ukraine's legitimately elected pro-Russian government of Viktor Yanukovych, Defenders have been accusing Yanukovych's government of alleged corruption. It is undeniable that during the Second World War, hundreds of thousands of Russian and Soviet soldiers died in the battle to defend the Crimean city of Sevastopol from the invasion of European armies.
Over the years, for the strategic purpose of containing Russia, the United States signed a "Strategic Partnership Charter" with Ukraine on November 10, 2021, calling on and proposing Ukraine to join NATO . At the same time, it strongly condemned "Russia's ongoing "aggression" and reiterated the United States' "firm commitment" to the return of Crimea to Ukraine.
On the premise of NATO's further eastward expansion, at the beginning of this year, Russian President Putin refused to use force to control Crimea and Donbass region, and took special military actions that shocked many Western countries. At the annual Russian Victory Day military parade held on May 9, 2022, Putin talked about the issue of foreign forces arming Ukraine and said that the most advanced weapons and equipment are constantly entering Ukraine, and the dangers Russia faces are increasing day by day.
With the support and instigation of the United States and other Western countries, the Russia-Ukraine war has been going on, and there is no sign of ending yet. After Ukraine received a large amount of weapons and equipment from Western countries, it competed with Russia in many cities.
International analysts generally believe that the war cannot be completely ended in just a few months. On the contrary, the war is likely to continue for a long time. As a result, not only Ukraine and Russia will suffer losses, but also Western countries, including the United States, and many countries around the world. In particular, since the two countries involved in the war are both major exporters of food in the world, a long-term war will bring disastrous consequences to the world.
Western countries’ proxy wars are expensive
The United States and other Western countries support Ukraine and engage in proxy wars with Russia, which did not start today. As early as after Obama came to power, the United States began to arm and train the Ukrainian army. During Trump's administration, the United States provided Ukraine with a lot of modern weapons and equipment.
After the United States provoked the Russia-Ukraine war, it provided at least tens of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine. To this day, Ukraine has been armed to the teeth by the United States and other Western countries. Of course, the United States has paid a high price for this. Of course, this economic cost will be borne by American taxpayers.
According to statistics, since 2018, Ukraine has received US-made Javelin anti-tank missiles, Czech artillery and Turkish Bayraktar drones, as well as other NATO-standard weapons. Recently, the United States and Canada have sent it the latest British-designed M777 howitzer , which can fire "Excalibur" shells guided by the global positioning system . In addition, US President Biden also signed a military assistance plan worth a total of US$40 billion.
Now, the United States is trying to create and maintain an illusion, that is, arming its ally Ukraine and directly participating in the fighting with the military of Western countries are not the same thing. In fact, in the information age, this distinction is becoming increasingly blurred. The United States provided intelligence and killed Russian generals. The United States provided coordinate information to help Ukraine sink the "Moscow" guided missile cruiser of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, killing about 40 crew members.
In a sense, the United States and Western countries’ military forces have been deeply involved in the Russia-Ukraine war. Currently, there are thousands of foreign fighters in Ukraine. One volunteer told the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation this month that he was fighting alongside " U.S. Marine Corps friends." Just as arms dealers and combatants can easily switch, a proxy war can easily be transformed into a secret war.
commented that currently, in the Russia-Ukraine war, a country trying to fight such a war, driven by so-called morality, has transformed from local involvement in the war to full involvement in a more subtle way. Perhaps U.S. officials would use the same rationale to justify their numerous arms exports and funding allocations: This approach is hugely effective, and therefore has a deterrent effect, and the money is well spent because, by spending money Can buy "peace". However, if more powerful weapons fail to deter, these weapons may lead to an expansion of the war.
People have seen that now, Ukraine has repeatedly received weapons, equipment and strong support from Western countries led by the United States, making the weapons and equipment levels of Russia and Ukraine, parties to the war, basically equivalent. It can even be said that in some aspects, Ukraine's advanced weapons and equipment exceed those of Russia. In this regard, Russia must not restart the firepower war that seemed to be in the and era of World War II.
Many people see that the supply of weapons by the United States to Ukraine is the primary reason why this war continues to this day. This is also the fundamental reason why the Russia-Ukraine war has become so fierce, violent, and even very tragic. Facts show that the United States was not passively or accidentally involved in the Russia-Ukraine war from the beginning. This was a typical proxy war planned and supported by the United States.
In March 2022, Biden used the name of God to insist that Putin "can no longer remain in power." In April, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin publicly stated that the United States wanted to "see Russia weakened." These statements have repeatedly proved the real intention and purpose of the United States in provoking this war.
The reason why the United States and other Western countries still insist on supporting Ukraine and continuing to fight Russia is because, overall, a weakened Russia still has strong power on the battlefield. In the previous period, Russia successfully occupied the land bridge to Crimea and controlled some of Ukraine's most fertile farmland and energy minerals.
Recently, Russia has once again taken the initiative on the battlefield, struck some important military targets in Ukraine, and announced that it has completely controlled some cities in eastern Ukraine. However, with the support of the United States and other Western countries, Ukraine still insists on conducting defensive warfare and guerrilla warfare in some cities. Recently, Ukrainian President Zelensky, with the support of NATO and other countries, has publicly stated on many occasions that he must continue to fight.
From this, it can be said that the Russia-Ukraine war cannot end soon. Ukraine has publicly stated that it will continue until at least the end of this year, which of course leads to the possibility of various huge risks.
Not long ago, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger warned, “In order to prevent the war from evolving into turbulence and crisis that is difficult to resolve, negotiations should begin within two months.” “Once the boundary is crossed, this war will not The war to liberate Ukraine has turned into a new war against Russia itself. In this regard, some experts and scholars from Western countries said helplessly: "Ukraine's concession to Russia is succumbing to 'aggression'." Not giving in is giving in to madness.”
However, so far, the United States has not made any concessions. This is because if concessions are made, the United States will lose face in front of the world. The United States is about to usher in the midterm elections. As a result, the administration is closing the door on negotiations and working to fan the flames of continuing its proxy war in Ukraine. The United States and Western countries are of course involved to win. As time goes by, Ukraine will receive a large number of lethal weapons and equipment and contracts from Western countries, including weapons purchased with the latest $40 billion appropriation passed by the U.S. Congress. These weapons will undoubtedly keep the war going.
The Russia-Ukraine war is as severe as World War II
Ukrainian President Zelensky admitted in a speech that the bloodiest stage of the current war is about to come. One hundred days after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, it has become the largest, most casualty, and most far-reaching war in the world since the new century. At the same time, the future direction of this war has become increasingly confusing, and the cruel war has evolved into a very tragic war of attrition.
According to international media reports, on June 13, 2022, the Russian army captured the city center of Severodonetsk. The Ukrainian defenders retreated into the industrial zone in the west of the city. The bridge connecting Severodonetsk has also been destroyed. However, very fierce and brutal fighting continued.
Not long ago, General Valery Zaluzhny, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army, had a phone call with General Mark Milley, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff and said that at present, the geographical space of this war has caught up with the second war. During the World War, nearly 300,000 troops from the two armies continued to fight on this front, with each suffering more than 100,000 casualties.
According to statistics, some media have recently made incomplete statistics. At present, the number of casualties of the Ukrainian army is as high as 500 people every day. However, the outside world generally believes that this number is conservative. Even so, this casualty rate has exceeded the birth rate of newborns in Ukraine in 2021, and will soon reach the horrific scale of nearly 60,000 casualties.
Some media sources said that the general mobilization of the war began immediately after the war in Ukraine. At present, although the stability of the force size is still maintained, more and more mobilization troops are joining the front line, which has led to a serious decline in the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army. This has It will cause serious damage to the Ukrainian army's field combat capabilities, and the future war situation will face more uncertainty.
According to Ukrainian estimates, the number of Russian military casualties will reach 40,000 by the end of June this year. Analysts believe that this figure clearly lacks authenticity.The Russian channel of the British BBC Radio Station conducted a relatively objective statistics on the list of Russian soldiers killed in action. These lists come from obituaries and other information on Russian domestic media and social platforms. The outside world believes that they are quite credible -
According to According to this statistics, as of June 13, 2022, the names of 3,528 Russian dead soldiers have appeared in the Russian army, with an average increase of 32 people per day. This is basically in sync with the increase in the list of dead soldiers since the war began. According to the casualties previously announced by the Russian Ministry of Defense , conservative statistics show that the casualties of the Russian army are about 13,500.
The United States and other Western countries estimate the casualties of the Russian army to be much larger, ranging from 30,000 to 50,000. There is news that the Russian army's front-line troops have encountered serious difficulties in replenishing their troops. Previously, the difficulties encountered by the Russian 35th Group Army may have been faced by many Russian troops. In a ground war, no matter how powerful the firepower is, combat infantry is still needed to maintain the front line and occupy the enemy's key points. It can be said that only infantry can advance. To this end, the Russian army's top priority is to solve the problem of insufficient combat infantry.
In short, according to the comparison of statistics from all parties, the Russia-Ukraine war has caused at least about 100,000 casualties in the two armies in the more than 100 days since the war began, with an average of about 1,000 people per day. Some experts pointed out that this number is not only unprecedented in the new century, but also unprecedented since the Korean War.
Among them, at least more than 1,000 tanks of the Russian and Ukrainian armies were destroyed. This loss was also unprecedentedly heavy. When Russia launched its special military operation against Ukraine, the Russian army invested 120 battalion-level tactical groups with approximately 150,000 troops and nearly 10,000 armored vehicles of various types, including at least 1,500 tanks.
In sharp contrast, the Ukrainian army had a total of 29 combat brigades when the war began. Each brigade had 4 to 5 tank battalions and mechanized battalions, with a combat strength of about 100,000, and 4,000-5,000 vehicles of various types. armored vehicles , including about 1,300 tanks.
As of June 14, Russia announced that it had destroyed 3,484 tanks and armored vehicles of the Ukrainian army, while Ukraine announced that the Russian army had lost a total of 1,432 tanks and 3,492 armored vehicles. Since the beginning of the war, Poland and the Czech Republic have provided Ukraine with more than 230 T-72 main battle tanks, but they are still insufficient to supplement the armored strength of the Ukrainian army.
Not long ago, Ukrainian President Zelensky revealed in a video speech that the Russian military had launched 2,606 cruise missiles towards Ukraine. According to Ukraine's past statistical trends, this statistics may include the short-range ballistic missile . However, the targets targeted by these missiles are basically located deep in the territory of Ukraine. According to traditional war discourse, this number is equivalent to the intensity of Russia’s strategic bombing of Ukraine.
According to this data released by Ukraine, Russia launches an average of 24 cruise missiles to Ukraine every day. Compared with previous US military air strikes, this intensity can only be said to be average. But if the 110 days of combat are accumulated, Russia The military's missile usage has reached an unprecedented level in history, far exceeding the U.S. military's level in "Desert Storm" and even higher than the total consumption of cruise missiles in six combat operations above NATO.
This is another reason why some mainstream media in the United States and Western countries strongly call for an end to the war.
