On June 28, 2022, Professor Liu Zhongmin from the Institute of Middle East Studies at SISU was interviewed by Liberation Daily on the possible resumption of negotiations on the Iran nuclear agreement. The full text is as follows:
The Iranian nuclear negotiations are expected to be restarted. Can there be any results this time?
Image source: Xinhua News Agency
On June 25, Iran and the European Union announced that the deadlocked Iran nuclear issue relevant party negotiations will resume within a few days to "resolve the last outstanding issues." It is reported that the meeting location may be Doha, the capital of Qatar, but the specific time has not yet been announced.
While the outside world was still "digesting" the possible benefits of the upcoming resumption of negotiations, Iran announced on June 26 its second test launch of the domestically produced launch vehicle "Zuljana". The White House immediately spoke out, criticizing Iran's test-launch activities as "destabilizing" and warning that the United States will continue to use sanctions and other means to prevent Iran from advancing its "ballistic missile program."
Within two days, Iran and the United States switched rapidly between negotiations and challenges, which made people overwhelmed. People cannot help but ask, how far is it from the United States and Iran to reach a return to the Iranian nuclear agreement?
Why the deadlock suddenly loosened
On the 25th, the news of the resumption of negotiations was jointly announced after the EU "Foreign Minister" Borrell and Iranian Foreign Minister Abdullahiyan held a meeting in Tehran .
Abdullahian said at the press conference that Iran and the EU had detailed and in-depth talks on resuming negotiations, and hoped that the United States would adopt a "realistic and fair approach" in this negotiation. He also mentioned that what is important for Iran is to "fully obtain all economic benefits stipulated in the 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement."
"The Iranian nuclear negotiations are expected to resume and break the deadlock within a few days." Borrell said that he was very happy with the decisions made by Tehran and Washington. He believes that the restarted negotiations are aimed at resolving "the last outstanding issues".
The deadlock suddenly loosened, which is somewhat surprising. Eight rounds of Vienna negotiations aimed at reviving the 2015 Iran nuclear deal have been held since April last year, but appear to have been swinging between small progress and continued deadlock. In March this year, the eighth round of negotiations was suspended due to "external factors." With the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of directors passing a resolution condemning Iran at the beginning of this month, and Iran subsequently shutting down 27 cameras used for monitoring, the prospects for negotiations have become increasingly bleak.
Now, why can the relevant parties put aside their past differences and inject new impetus into the negotiations that have been put on hold for three months?
Analysts pointed out that the resumption of negotiations is a common need of the United States and Iran, and the EU plays an active role in this. The focus of the negotiations may be on resolving differences in the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran.
"Before the Vienna negotiations were suspended in March, all parties believed that the agreement was only a 'final step'. But the reason why it was stuck was mainly due to several key issues." Li Shaoxian, dean of the China Arab Studies Institute at Ningxia University pointed out , for example, Iran requires the United States to remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from the list of terrorist organizations, and requires the United States to give a guarantee that it will not withdraw from the (agreement) easily. Although negotiations have stalled, behind-the-scenes diplomacy has not. EU negotiator Mora visited Iran twice and the United States twice, and has been in constant communication. Even if the United States and Iran accuse each other, no one has given up efforts to restore the agreement. Iran has previously forwarded a latest proposal from the European Union to the United States. EU "Foreign Minister" Borrell visited Iran last weekend with the latest US response to Iran's suggestions. Judging from the current statements, both the United States and Iran have found room to continue negotiations.
Liu Zhongmin, a professor at the Middle East Institute of Shanghai International Studies University and vice president of the China Middle East Society, pointed out that from a rational perspective, all parties hope to reach an agreement, and the EU's urgency is particularly real.
The United States has been strategically shrinking and reducing investment in the Middle East since 2017. The Biden administration has regarded major power competition as a strategic focus and hopes to use the new Iran nuclear agreement to restrain Iran and balance the direction of regional power. As Iran's uranium enrichment technology improves and its reserves increase, the United States is increasingly concerned about its nuclear capabilities.
If Iran wants to resolve the structural contradictions in developing its domestic economy and integrating into the international community, it needs to reach a new agreement and break Western sanctions.
As for Europe, in the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States regards it as a "victim." Europe needs to find new energy import alternatives, and Iran has exactly this capability. However, Europe's embarrassment is that the progress of negotiations is not under its control, and energy cooperation between Europe and the Middle East is still restricted by many factors such as pipelines.
Negotiations face many changes
If the negotiations are restarted, compared with the previous eight rounds of Vienna negotiations, the latest negotiations will appear to be many different in terms of location, form and background.
First, the negotiations are not expected to be held in Vienna , but at a location closer to the Gulf, involving only the United States, Iran and the European Union. If the negotiations are successful, the relevant agreement will be submitted to the negotiating parties in Vienna (in addition to Iran and the United States, there are also Russia, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and China).
Many Middle Eastern media said that the new round of negotiations is most likely to be held in Doha, the capital of Qatar; Iran "chooses" this location because it is a friendly country.
Qatar Emir (Head of State) Tamim just visited Tehran last month and held talks with Iranian President Raisi. Tamim told a joint press conference that Qatar "has always had a positive attitude" towards the Vienna negotiations and believed that dialogue was the only way to reach an agreement. What's even more subtle is that the day before the Qatari leader's visit, EU negotiator Mora had just arrived in Tehran for talks with Iranian officials.
Analysts pointed out that Doha may be an ideal location. Its proximity to Iran demonstrates the importance that all parties place on Iran's wishes. Qatar has good relations with Iran and the United States. In recent years, this small country has been playing an active role in bridging the gap between the positions of the United States and Iran. The form of this negotiation is slightly innovative, but the United States and Iran are still talking indirectly.
Second, a series of recent developments in Iran seem to have created a more favorable negotiation environment for itself.
In terms of national defense, the Iranian Ministry of Defense announced on the 26th that it successfully tested the domestically produced satellite launch vehicle "Zuljana". This is the second test launch of the rocket and is designed to test and evaluate performance. A few months ago, Iran used another model of its domestic launch vehicle "Messenger" to launch a military satellite . The United States is worried that Iran is using related launch activities to cover the development of its missile project. The White House criticized Iran's launch activities on June 26 as "destabilizing."
In terms of diplomacy, Iran's "home diplomacy" has been booming in the past two months. Leahy has successively received visits from dignitaries from many countries, including the President of Syria, the Emir of Qatar, the President of Venezuela, the President of Kazakhstan, and the President of Turkmenistan, which attracted attention from the outside world.
Economically, some American scholars believe that Iran does not need to lift sanctions as urgently as during the Obama period because its oil revenue has increased significantly. Data from the Central Bank of Iran in May showed that in the six months to April, Iran’s oil sales were US$18.6 billion, much higher than the US$8.5 billion in the same period last year.
"Iran's negotiating conditions and environment are looser and more favorable than before." Li Shaoxian said that its oil export revenue has basically returned to the level before the United States' "maximum pressure" in 2019, and the recent rocket launches also put pressure on the United States. consider. But overall, it is still seeking to reach a deal and lift sanctions as soon as possible.
Liu Zhongmin believes that Iran’s actions in diplomacy and national defense can be observed in the context of the changing situation in the Middle East. There are active exchanges between countries in the entire region. The three main lines of easing relations are Israel and Arab countries, Turkey and regional countries, and Saudi Arabia and Iran. But at the same time, the long-standing and profound conflicts in the region still exist, and the conflicts between Iran and Israel are still intensifying. There are various signs that the United States is promoting the creation of a regional alliance against Iran. Iran has taken a series of actions because it naturally feels that the changes in the situation are disadvantageous to itself. It hopes to seek a favorable position for itself, expand diplomatic space, and even challenge the United States.
There are still obstacles to reaching an agreement
Although both Iran and the EU have expressed expectations for the negotiations, many observers are still skeptical about reaching an agreement based on previous rounds of back and forth.
European analysts said that there are still three major obstacles for the United States and Iran to return to the agreement: first, the Iranian leader’s lack of trust in the United States; second, Biden does not have much room for concessions before the mid-term elections; third, Iran, the United States, and Israel misunderstood The risk of judging each other's tolerance is increasing.
"I am cautiously optimistic about the next step of the Iran nuclear deal." Li Shaoxian said that the United States and Iran have the same desire, but it remains to be seen how to overcome the obstacle of the Revolutionary Guards taking off their hats.
Liu Zhongmin believes that the prospects for reaching a new Iran nuclear agreement are still relatively bleak, and there are still three obstacles to the negotiations. First, the United States bundled the Iranian nuclear negotiations with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and sanctions against Russia, bringing the U.S.-Russia game into the negotiations, further complicating the trilateral relationship between the United States, Iran, and Russia, and putting Europe in an embarrassing situation. Second, there is a lack of consensus between the United States and Iran. The two sides have put forward some demands beyond the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, such as Iran's request to increase restrictions on the withdrawal of the United States, etc., making negotiations more difficult. Third, some of the actions of the United States and Iran have adversely affected the negotiation environment. For example, the United States intends to arm Iran’s regional rivals and promote an Israeli-led anti-missile system in the Middle East. Iran is also developing centrifuges and increasing uranium enrichment to the West. Pressure etc.
"All parties are at the negotiating table, but they are pulling the table in their own direction instead of pushing in one direction." Liu Zhongmin said that the parties may issue a non-binding statement, which means declaring Iran to the outside world. The nuclear deal is still "alive", but that is two different things from actually "functioning". Overall, Europe's urgency is real, but it is in an awkward position in the U.S.-Russia game. Looking back on the past, almost every European commitment to Iran has failed, including its previous claim to establish INSTEX, a commercial payment system independent of US sanctions. Because the United States is still a big uncertainty.
Source: Liberation Daily
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