Follow daily food and oil to understand the global market. Today we will change the content to talk about gossip incidents in the international grain market.
For most people, when it comes to gossip, the first impression is the celebrity entertainment industry. In fact, if you regard each country as a living person, the gossip here will only be 100 times more exciting than the entertainment industry!
The reason why I talked to you about this topic today is that Belarus told the United Nations that Ukrainian grains can be allowed to be exported from Lithuanian ports through its territory, but then Ukraine said: No need!
You should know that Ukrainian grains were unable to be exported due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and they were accused of threatening global food security. Why did the situation change so much in the blink of an eye?
As we all know, Ukraine's family inherited from the former Soviet Union, but after years of tossing and causing trouble, the only thing that can be taken advantage of is agriculture. Agricultural exports account for about 40% of Ukraine's total export volume, and grain exports, including wheat and corn, occupy an important position.
But after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke from blitzkrieg to a protracted war, Ukraine's agricultural exports were damaged, and the largest foreign exchange revenue-generating field was suppressed. It is reported that Ukrainian agricultural product exports are affected by Russian artillery fire on the one hand, and another important factor is that Ukraine actively closes the port and spreads torpedo defense measures in the port, which has caused grain transport ships that were supposed to go to the area to dare not risk their lives to pull grain, and has also caused nearly 100 cargo ships in the area to be unable to leave the port.
Similarly, Russia is also an important grain exporter in the world. Unlike Ukraine's semi-active cessation of exports, Russia's grain exports are accompanied by a series of sanctions from Western countries such as EU , which makes it impossible to export its grains. These sanctions include removing Russia from the global bank payment system, making it difficult for other countries to complete trade payments with Russia smoothly, and also refusing to provide consulting, insurance and other business services for the export of related goods from Russia, which makes it difficult for Russian goods to navigate at sea.
Of course, the above is just an open sanction, and it also includes using its influence to force more countries to stay away from the Russian cereal export market. It should be pointed out that so far, Western countries have refused to admit restrictions on Russian cereal exports.
No matter how the parties express their opinions, it is an indisputable fact that Black Sea grain exports have dropped sharply after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Subsequently, some major grain exporters have also taken measures to restrict grain exports under the influence of various factors. Then, global food prices rose sharply by nearly 60% in just two months, and some countries experienced food supply crises and even social turmoil.
Eyes Watching the Global Economy brings huge uncertainty due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In order to maintain the stability of the global economic situation, under the mediation of Turkey and the United Nations, Turkey, Ukraine and Russia held talks. The core was to stabilize the global food supply. Finally, a 120-day Black Sea Cereal Export Agreement was signed. The agreement required the restart of Black Sea Cereal Export, which included both Ukraine’s grain exports and Russia’s grain and fertilizer exports.
Then, a continuous stream of Ukrainian grains are transported to all over the world through the Black Sea, most of which are transported to Europe, while Russian fertilizers are trapped in European ports and cannot be transported. At the same time, with the continued Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the rebuilding of the global supply system, Western countries' overall support for Ukraine is becoming increasingly strong, and sanctions against Russia are becoming increasingly tough.
From November this year, as the 120-day agreement approaches, Russia publicly stated that if Russia's grain and fertilizer exports cannot be guaranteed, it will no longer participate in the Black Sea grain export agreement.
After that, the United Nations came forward to coordinate and promised to promote the export of Russian fertilizers. Then, Dutch said that in accordance with the requirements of the United Nations, 20,000 tons of Russian fertilizer seized at the port of Rotterdam .However, with the extension of the Black Sea grain export agreement, Russia's fertilizer exports have encountered problems again.
At present, the United Nations has stated that Russia's fertilizers still face multiple challenges.
As of now, Russia is still striving to gain more export channels. In addition to the early announcement that it would transfer fertilizers seized by European countries to low-income regions such as Africa for free, it also provides preferential measures to export bulk commodities , including crude oil and cereals, and even includes the use of RMB and other currency crops to settle bulk transactions to maintain its position in the global trade system.
The good news is that although the number of countries directly importing commodities such as grain from Russia has decreased, exports are showing an upward trend.
At the same time, although current fertilizer exports still face obstacles, Türkiye said in its latest talks with Russia that Turkey recommends expanding the Black Sea export agreement, including exports of other foods, and gradually expanding the export of other raw materials. Perhaps, this is what Russia is currently striving for.
Of course, although the Russian-Ukrainian conflict shows the struggle between countries, the various gossips and disputes behind it will only have a far-reaching impact on the lives and property of millions or even tens of millions of people.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-