Cheng Mo: I have repeatedly embarrassed Putin , Ukraine restored the vast majority of power supply
Original Cheng Mo Visional Pen Talk 2022-11-27 15:39
Original title: I have repeatedly embarrassed Putin
Morning mist / Reposted
Content summary and important tips: This account introduces the latest situation of the Russian-Ukraine conflict, as well as the profound impact of this war on the future international landscape. My stock trading diary moved to the "Sighted Vision" account above and posted it, click to follow. The direction of the Russian-Ukrainian war is not based on your and my will. I am just making an objective comment!
November 26 is the "Great Famine Day" of Ukraine. On that day, Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on international social media, accusing Russia of re-adopting the genocide strategy of Soviet leader Stalin . He wrote: " They once wanted to destroy us through hunger, but now they are dark and cold. We cannot be destroyed. "
The Russian Foreign Ministry then issued a statement saying that Zelensky's statement was not true and the metaphor was inappropriate. Russia was also a victim of the Great Famine that year. Everything that happened now is not analogy to the Great Famine. Russia has always been unintentionally hurting the Ukrainian people.
Stalin sent police to Ukraine in November 1932, confiscating all grains and livestock on the farm that was just collected at the time, including seeds needed to grow crops for the next season. After that, millions of Ukrainian farmers starved to death within a few months. The international community, including mainstream Russian scholars, generally believed that this was obviously a premeditated massacre. After Ukraine broke away from the Soviet Union in 1991, in order to commemorate the Great Famine incident, the fourth Saturday in November was designated as the "Great Famine Commemoration Day". Ukrainians usually light candles at windows on this day.
Zelensky's main assistant and director of the presidential office Yermak posted on the same day saying, " Russia will pay the price for all victims of the Great Famine and today's crimes. ." In a statement on the same day, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also accused Moscow of re-adopting the genocide strategy of the 1930s.
Not long ago (November 23), the Catholic Pope Francis compared the Russian-Ukrainian war with the so-called "terrible acts of genocide" during the Stalin period, and said that Ukraine is currently suffering from martyrdom related to aggression. This is the strongest condemnation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, after which he repeatedly called for an immediate ceasefire between the two sides, warning the Orthodox pastor not to support the war, but has been avoiding strong criticism of Russia.
As the most influential religious leader, the pope rarely makes such a clear statement on secular affairs, because this may trigger division among believers in different countries. The Pope made such a strong attack on Russia this time, which shows that the Russian army in this war has reached the point where both man and gods are angry.
( Lviv People commemorate the victims of the Great Famine)
An important impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the international landscape will be the decline of Russia's international influence, and the younger brothers are disunited, parting ways, and may even turn against each other. This is not my guess, it is becoming a reality step by step. Today I will tell you a real and interesting story.
On November 23, local time, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (hereinafter referred to as the CSIS) summit was held at Armenia capital Yerevan . You should know that this is after President Putin had to miss the G20 summit and the APEC meeting led by Western camp representatives, and finally had the opportunity to attend this small circle international conference that has always been the support of his younger brothers.
President Putin went to Armenia in South Caucasus with great enthusiasm to attend this internal summit of his own people. Unexpectedly, the meeting lasted a bad day and was very embarrassing. Host Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan first attacked at the meeting, saying that Jixian Organization did not help Armenia resist the invasion of Azerbaijan in accordance with the organization's constitution. So what is the significance of this organization's existence? Except for Belarusian President Lukashenko who helped Putin smooth the situation, several other leaders stared at President Putin coldly for jokes. When signing the joint statement and other documents, Armenian Prime Minister Pashiniyang stated that the meeting failed to reach a solution to Azerbaijan's invasion of the country, and he would never sign such useless documents. Putin was so angry that he threw away the signing pen on the spot.
In fact, Putin has trouble saying that in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the reason why Russia dares not help Armenia is because Azerbaijan has the support of Turkey , and Putin dares not turn against Turkey at all, because Turkey is a member of NATO and has strong military strength. Turkish President Erdogan is another strong man who is not afraid of heaven and earth. He shot a Russian fighter jet fighting in Syria a few years ago.
(President Putin was publicly alienated by his younger brother)
If the quarrel at the top of the leaders' summit was not present, it took a few days before a president of Ji'an organized a group broke the news. During the photo session of the leaders on the same day, in front of the cameras of many international journalists, a shocking scene occurred in which the younger brothers publicly neglected and alienated Russian President Putin.
7 leaders, in the middle is host Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, next to him is Putin, and on the other side of Putin is Tajikistan President Rahmon. People saw that Rahmon was a little far away from Putin when taking a photo, and he deliberately did not look at Putin from beginning to end, but only talked to the leaders on the other side.
As the host and should have stood in the middle, Pashinyan, who was supposed to be standing in the middle, acted even more outrageously and explicitly, deliberately staying away from Putin step by step, and squeezed a leader on his left to move a position for him. In the end, Putin stood alone in the middle.
(Pashinyan deliberately stays away from Putin)
Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan did this, and it was really a bit of a public opinion basis. On the same day, hundreds of people held demonstrations in the central square of Yerevan, the capital, claiming that Armenia "will get rid of Russia's shadow" and that "our future must be integrated into the Western camp." This is the major impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war. If Russia is defeated in the Ukrainian battlefield, the former brother's disintegration and the collapse of the Ji'an Organization and the CIS led by Russia will be the inevitable result.
As early as the St. Petersburg Economic Forum held in Russia on June 17 this year, Kazakh President Tokayev and Russian President Putin attended a TV host Q&A session. Tokayev said he would not recognize the legality of the independence of Donetsk and Lugansk states in the Donbass region of Ukraine. This is equivalent to slapping President Putin in the face in front of Russian TV viewers. Putin's face was extremely ugly at that time. After the incident, a famous commentator of Russian TV threatened that Tokayev was so ignorant of the current affairs, Kazakhstan would be the next Ukraine, because the proportion of Russians in the country was even higher than that of Ukraine, and Russia had enough reason to send troops to Kazakhstan.
At the CIS (CIS) summit held in the capital of Kazakhstan on October 14, Putin was also tragically accused by Tajik President Rahmon for 7 minutes, saying that Russia is a big country, always ignores the voices of these small countries and does not respect the reasonable suggestions of these little brothers.
(Putin was publicly neglected by his younger brothers)
The above screenshot picture is extremely rich in expressions. Seeing Putin's extremely desolate and helpless look, it was obvious that at that time, there were ten thousand horses galloping in his heart!
Russian politicians and media have publicly said that they now have only two real friends, Iran and North Korea. In my opinion, if Russia does not change its course after its defeat, these two real friends may not be reliable.Of course, if Russia can achieve phoenix nirvana, give up its foreign territorial expansion, learn to live peacefully with other countries, and abide by international codes of conduct, it can win the respect of most countries in the world.
After talking about major events related to the evolution of the international landscape in the future, today I will tell you a touching and warm story about the indomitable and unyielding Ukrainians.
A child from Chernikov dreams of raising donations through street singing and donating a pickup truck to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. After more than four months of continuous efforts, the child finally raised enough funds to buy a pickup truck.
11 On November 25, the pickup truck was handed over to the Ukrainian Armed Forces as he wished, and the military specially sent a major general to receive it. The reception scene is short and warm. The major general picked up the child and took a photo and expressed his sincere gratitude on behalf of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The child stood on the pickup truck and sang a patriotic song for the onlookers, the general and his soldiers.
Look at the confident and optimistic smiles of this child and the general in the photo below. I really feel that Ukraine is invincible and will definitely have a very bright future.
(Children sang on the street to raise a pickup truck to the military)
Everyone is very concerned about the electricity and heating issues in Ukraine. Now there is a very reliable latest news. With the help of Ukraine itself and the help of all parties, power supply in most areas has been restored.
Deputy Director of the Ukrainian Presidential Office Tymoshenko said on international social media: "We have powered the critical infrastructure in the city of Khlsong and then immediately powered the home users." Since the Ukrainian army recovered Khlsong on November 11, there has been no water, electricity or heating supply in the area. When the Russian army retreated, it destroyed almost all power facilities.
In addition, Ukrainian State Grid Corporation said that as of the morning of November 26, the power output has recovered to about 75% of the national demand, and will continue to work hard to increase the power distribution. As of noon today (November 27), except for , Kiev and Kelsong, most other areas have basically resumed normal power supply, and a very small number of areas need to take turns to outage.
On the same day, European Commission President von der Leyen said that EU will step up support for Ukraine to help them restore power and heating. Previously, Western countries gave Ukraine a lot of support. For example, France and the United States handed over 180 high-power generators to Ukraine, of which 100 were France and 80 were assisted by the United States Agency for International Development. Many Eastern European countries and Germany provide a large number of fuel generators, gasoline and diesel, wires and cables and other power facilities maintenance equipment and accessories.
Ukraine quickly restores power facilities, confirming my previous analysis: Most people seriously overestimate the degree of damage to Ukrainian power facilities by the Russian military missiles and drone , and seriously underestimate Ukraine's ability to quickly restore power to normal with external help . Pro-Russians exaggerated how powerful the Russian army attacked Ukrainian infrastructure. The Ukrainian army had only one way to surrender, which demonstrated how brilliant and powerful the Russian army was; pro-Ukrainians were shocked and believed that the Ukrainians would be difficult to bear this winter because they were overly worried and lost their due objective judgment.
Ukrainian people did suffer great pain in this war. However, it is by no means a few million people who are exaggerated by irresponsible media who live in hunger and cold. During a brief temporary power outage caused by the Russian air strike, the Ukrainian government relied on more than 4,000 relief centers previously installed across the country to provide free basic services such as electricity, food, drinking water and the Internet to the needy. So far, there have been no reports of abnormal deaths caused by power outages, water outages, insufficient heating facilities, or food shortages.
By the way, Ukraine has extremely developed agriculture, with extremely rich agricultural products and a large number of exports. It is sparsely populated and there are forests everywhere in , so it is easy to find a large amount of firewood for heating.The Ukrainian government has prepared for the future and has banned the export of firewood. Therefore, the statement that believes that Ukrainians will be frozen and hungry and even unable to survive this winter is purely nonsense - just as many people thought that without Russian energy, Europeans would have to freeze to death.
(Ukrainian recovery Khlsong was destroyed by power facilities)
Briefly talk about the latest battle situation in the past 24 hours. Described in the clockwise direction of the Ukrainian map, the main battlefield situation in the past 24 hours is as follows:
1, , Russian and Ukrainian armies in Luhansk Prefecture, and the land has not been frozen and muddy everywhere, so there are almost no ground battles worth mentioning from Swatov-Krimina-Licichangsk.
2, on Donetsk front , the two sides were still fighting fiercely on the ground. The prison soldiers recruited by the Wagner Group and the Russian army mobilized troops, driven by the Wagner mercenaries with combat experience, launched rounds of small-scale human charges against the Ukrainian army. Many people either died in the Ukrainian army's guns, or were frozen to death in simple trenches and earth pits.
3, At the Zaporozhe-Kerson battlefield, the Ukrainian army significantly strengthened the long-range artillery bombardment of the Russian army's logistics supplies, troops and equipment assembly sites, and achieved significant results.
4 and are on each contact line, and the two sides are constantly bombarding each other, and the firepower of the Ukrainian army is significantly higher than that of the Russian army. It is particularly worth mentioning that the Ukrainian Air Force is far more frequent than the Russian Air and Space Force. The Ukrainian Air Force dispatches more than 20 fighter jets and helicopters to support the front line every day to strike valuable targets of the Russian army; the Russian army only dispatches less than 10 orders a day, and none of them support ground combat near the contact line between the two sides, but launches missiles from a long distance.
(Crawler M270 in muddy areas)
The most intense battle in the past 24 hours still occurred in Bachmut and surrounding areas. For several months, it has been mainly attacked by the Russian Wagner mercenary group, including the investment of tens of thousands of prison soldiers. Recently, it has also added a large number of Russian mobilized troops. There is a cruel tug-of-war here every day, and Russia has made almost no progress in the past few months.
Both Russia and Ukraine have suffered major casualties here, and the death rate of both sides of exceeds 3:1; because a large number of prison soldiers and mobilized soldiers who have no combat experience are put on the front line, they charge in human form without the cover of tanks and armored vehicles , the death rate has increased significantly recently. The human-metal tactics like the Wagner Group are to hide the experienced mercenary behind the front line, test the location of the Ukrainian artillery and fire points, and then counterattack with artillery fire.
This is an extremely cruel and brutal tactic. Even so, because the Ukrainian army has strong battlefield situational awareness capabilities and precise long-range artillery support, this tactic of the Wagner Group has little effect, but it does increase the casualties of the Ukrainian army. Recently, the Ukrainian army has added new combat personnel and equipment to this place, not just to take turns. This makes Moscow's attempt to make a breakthrough in Bachmut even more hopeless .
11 On November 26, the Russian army continued to carry out offensive operations around Bachmut. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Ukrainian army repelled attacks from Russian troops near Bachmut, near Opigne within 4 kilometers south of Bachmut, and near Soledal, Bachmutsk and Yakovlifka within 18 kilometers northeast of Bachmut.
Bachmut's battle was so cruel that when the Ukrainian army was cleaning the battlefield, they discovered Wagner mercenaries who committed suicide. Compared with the Russian mobilized soldiers, they not only had much higher salary, but also had much stronger equipment supplies than Russian general troops. As a result, there were still mercenaries that could not stand this cruel battlefield environment and chose to commit suicide .
(Wagner mercenary committed suicide in Bachmut)
November 26, the Russian army continued to conduct offensive operations in the Avdiyvka-Donetsk city area.The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Ukrainian army repelled Russian attacks within 23 kilometers southwest of Avdivka near Perwomaysk, Krasnokholivka and Neversk.
Russian troops continued to strengthen defenses in Donetsk Oblast western and Zaporoze Oblast eastern . The Ukrainian army continued to attack valuable targets in the rear of the Russian army. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Ukrainian army attacked a Russian ammunition depot in Melitopol, in Zaporoze Prefecture, causing 50 casualties in Russian military personnel, and successfully bombarded two Russian gathering sites in the Vasilyivsky area, causing 130 casualties in the Russian army and destroying 7 large-scale equipment. Umelitopol mayor Ivan Fedorov said that on November 25, Umelitopol attacked a Russian ammunition depot in Mihailifka, the northern suburb of Melitopol.
Obviously, the Ukrainian army is strengthening the shelling of Melitopol and surrounding areas. I have always believed that this is one of the main attack directions for the Ukrainian army to advance towards the shore of Azov Sea .
In addition, although the road is muddy, Russia and Ukraine are still gathering in the western Donetsk Oblast and the eastern Zaporoze Oblast. This also means that the next decisive battle between the two sides is likely to be the Ukrainian army that I analyzed before, advancing eastward towards the coast of Azov from the Donetsk-Zaporoze contact line.
Do you remember the classic photo below that I used shortly after the war broke out at the beginning of the year? I said at that time. This picture shows the future destiny of the entire Russian country. . Even the most optimistic person thought I was a wishful and overly optimistic fantasy. Nine months later, even the foolish Russian fans had to admit: Russia's big trouble is really coming.
(The Russian army is stuck in the quagmire and cannot extricate itself)
I think it is impossible for to have a large-scale ground battle between the two sides before the land in eastern Wudong was deeply frozen on December 5. Because the Ukrainian army has stronger long-range artillery precision strike capabilities, personal cold-proof equipment, logistics supplies and morale are far stronger than the Russian army. cold greatly enhances the Ukrainian army's battlefield advantages over the Russian army, and the Ukrainian army will never miss the opportunity . Therefore, I think after the land is deeply frozen, after the Ukrainian army has accumulated troops and equipment for a period of time, it may launch a large-scale counterattack from the end of December to the end of February next year.
below is a statistical chart of the Russian war damage situation unilaterally released by Ukraine. It has not been verified by a third party, but I have judged it based on various data and it is highly credible. This is the most important observation window to observe the intensity of the battle; for confidentiality reasons, Ukraine may artificially adjust the Japanese civil war damage and adjust the data within a week.
Please note that if the missiles and drones launched by the Russian army are not shot down, they will not be counted on the battle loss statistics released by the Ukrainian side. Similarly, the number of deaths in Russian military hospitals that were seriously injured, fighter planes that crashed on their own, and the losses that Ukraine neither recognized nor denied were counted in this battle loss chart.
latest battle statistics show that lost huge losses in the past 24 hours, with a total of 600 deaths, and 4 tanks, 8 armored vehicles, 6 tankers, and logistics heavy trucks, 1 artillery , and 1 drone were destroyed. From the perspective of personnel and equipment losses, it may be mainly caused by the Ukrainian long-range artillery strike and the Bachmut Russian military charge.
(Russian military damage counted on November 27)
Since the outbreak of the war on February 24, the Russian military (including pro-Russian armed forces) deaths exceeded 87,000 , including 2 lieutenant generals and 10 major generals ( Russian 20th Army). Major General Jokov, the commander of the 144th MoF Division, was seriously injured and not killed on September 24, not counting it. More than 2,600 lieutenants came to colonel officers; I guess based on public information, there were about 29,000 officers and soldiers killed in the Ukrainian army ( Commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces revealed on August 22 that nearly 9,000 soldiers died, including known captured personnel, and more than 7,000 officers and soldiers disappeared, which is very close to my speculation at that time). More than 10,000 Ukrainian civilians were killed (Jianzhong.com said that Mariupol .11 million civilians were killed without any basis or impossible). The loss of life caused by war is really shocking!
Overall, the number of Russian soldiers killed far exceeds that of the Ukrainian army, and so far is about 3:1. The reports of multiple international authoritative institutions are very similar to the war loss statistics revealed by Ukraine. The main reasons why the Russian army suffered so many casualties are: 1. The medical security is far inferior to the Ukrainian army; 2. The individual soldiers are of poor quality and insufficient training; 3. The Soviet-style weapons are not as advanced as NATO weapons, especially the accuracy is too poor; 4. In terms of battlefield situation awareness, the Ukrainian army has the clairvoyance (tactical security communication system) provided by the US, while the Russian army is blind.
Due to the above reasons and the powerful devastating nature of modern weapons, the ratio of the Russian army to the death toll is estimated to be about 1:1, while the Ukrainian army's casualties ratio is about 2:1, which is by no means 3:1 or 4:1 as in when in World War II.
Let us continue to pray: May God give peace and stop war; let the evil be repaid and the good be protected.
Information source: 2022-11-27 WeChat official account Yuanjian Bitan
ID: yjbt-303
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