The world situation has been turbulent this year. For Russia, with the launch of the "special military operation", it has suffered a lot of sanctions, and Western countries have collectively curbed Russia's economic situation.
In addition to economic containment, in terms of energy, most countries involved in sanctions on Russia have also adopted energy supply measures independent of Russia. For example, according to the British Foreign Office, the UK will stop purchasing Russian liquefied natural gas from 2023. Meanwhile, some EU countries, especially Germany, have expressed their intention to lift sanctions on the Russian natural gas field, including liquefied natural gas. According to German Chancellor Scholz, the degree of dependence on Russia's "blue fuel" has been and is not used as a political tool.
Ships transporting liquefied natural gas, data source satellite network
Statistics on exporting liquefied natural gas to European countries show that 2022 is not the worst year in the industry in history. In the first nine months of 2022, LNG imports across Europe increased by 50%, and some countries that previously did not need to import Russian gas are now regularly supplied. In particular, this conventional natural gas supply fell by more than 80% over the same period.
Experts point out that European demand for liquefied natural gas will only grow next year, which provides a positive medium-term outlook for the Russian gas industry. It should be noted, however, that if the diplomatic situation worsens due to the escalation of military conflict, the EU's most important natural gas consumers will continue to reject Russian fuel, and the status of competitors in this market (US and Qatar ) will only be strengthened. Therefore, the long-term development of the liquefied natural gas industry directly depends on whether the political situation in the region can be normalized.
When analyzing the development and prospects of Russian natural gas, we must also consider the emergence of a new global economic crisis. The causes of the new global recession mainly refer to severe inflation in the United States and energy crisis in Europe, etc. .
The slowdown in global economic growth can be linked to a decline in demand for energy resources. Russia needs to prepare for this, including considering abandoning possible risks to existing clients and developing cooperation with new partners. Especially the "Arctic LNG-2" project, which will sell Russian blue fuel in this channel as it starts supplying LNG to Japan in 2023.
Russian Gas "Siberian Force" pipeline, data source satellite network
In order to preserve the long-term contract for liquefied natural gas, Russia is likely to consider not only some political concessions, but also price competition method , that is, lowering the price of liquefied natural gas in order to create the most attractive conditions for partners.
Looking at the above factors, is expected to be a good thing for Kyrgyzstan . The most likely crisis and Russia's energy export difficulties will allow Kyrgyzstan to obtain more preferential fuels and lubricants in the future. This helps reduce the cost of most types of products in the national economy of Kyrgyzstan and also reduces inflation.
French Le Monde website recently published an article titled "The energy crisis aggravates inequality in central and European regions" and pointed out that European Bank for Reconstruction and Development emphasized in its latest economic forecast that before the energy crisis, nearly one-third of households in Central Europe, Southern Europe and Central Asia could no longer afford the cost of heating themselves.
Most of these countries have taken measures to curb the impact of inflation, but the bank's chief economist Beata Yavolchik believes that "these aid measures are not adequately targeted at the poorest people and do not provide sufficient incentives for energy conservation."
Yawolchik said: "In the first half of this year, economic activity in Eastern Europe performed better, which is especially related to the savings accumulated by families during the COVID-19 pandemic. In Central Asia, the pessimistic scenario we are worried about has not come true.”
As the epidemic-related prevention and control measures were lifted, the border reopened, and workers from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan , Uzbekistan returned to Russia and remitted money to the country. In the first half of the year, the overseas remittances to Kyrgyzstan increased by 11%, and the 96% remittances sent to Uzbekistan increased. This supported the local economy. Meanwhile, , as a hydrocarbon energy producer, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan benefits from rising energy prices.
Yavolchik believes that it is even more surprising that "the route of goods trade has been rewritten since the Ukrainian war and sanctions against Russia, and Central Asia has become an important commercial center in the region." The re-export of Chinese products to Russia is a major economic activity there, which is completed by small businesses and individuals. This year, Central Asia's economic growth will therefore reach 4.3%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from May's expectations.
Source: News Network, Reference News
Translated by: Yang Haibo
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