▲ Trump announced his candidacy for
Overseas Network reported that on the evening of November 15th local time, former US President Trump held a press conference at Mar-a-Lago, Florida, and announced his high-profile election for the US President in 2024. BBC reported that Trump had previously submitted formal candidacy documents. This news accompanied by the poor midterm elections, not only did not boost the confidence of the Republican Party in , but also made many establishment leaders believe that the next presidential election will be lost, and the reality of the Democratic Party's long-term rule may be difficult to change.
Of course, the Republican establishment tycoons made such a judgment based on a prediction that Trump will definitely not be able to be elected in 2024. This logic is also very simple, because the poor performance of this midterm election and the "red tide" breaks the agreement, mainly because the American people in swing states have already developed disgust towards Trump himself. Once this disgust arises, it will not be reversed, which means that Trump and Trumpism have been thrown into the garbage dump of American political history and will definitely not be able to rely on it anymore. The most direct evidence is that almost none of the swing state Republicans who endorsed Trump strongly supported this time won the election as expected, while those swing state Republican candidates who deliberately kept a distance from Trump won the victory as expected. This is very fatal in the political landscape of swing states deciding everything in the US election.
▲Trump has been abandoned by American voters, but the Republican Party needs him
Since the people of swing states have great opinions on Trump's candidate for parliament, it is naturally impossible to have any good feelings for Trump himself. Therefore, if Trump can become a Republican candidate in the party primary election, then the Democratic Party only needs to use the 80s-year-old Biden to still defeat Trump and obtain re-election. If Trump fails within the party, others will face off against Biden Old, considering the huge influence of Trump himself within the Republican Party and the extremes of his brainless fans, then voters who support Trump will not vote for that person. The Republican Party is still unable to defeat the Republican Party. It is precisely because of Trump's "double-edged sword" effect that, when Florida Governor DeSantis, who has the highest call this year, did not respond positively when asked several times whether he runs for US president. His calculations in his mind are "Operation in 2024 will inevitably become Trump's cannon fodder to affect his future career. It is better to set his sights on 2028."
From the above According to analysis, Trump's announcement of his candidacy undoubtedly puts the Republican Party in a dilemma. The possibility of winning the election in 2024 is almost 0. If he wants to be reborn, he must get rid of Trump and his ideology, but this is indeed very difficult. On the one hand, there are a large number of Trump fans among the Republican supporters. If the Republican Party draws a clear line, then this group of fans will definitely abandon the Republican Party and cause the party to lose a large number of votes. On the other hand, Trump also has many close and hard-core supporters within the Republican Party. Once the Republican establishment tyrant is cut off from Trump, then the Republican Party will fight, which will obviously be used by the Democratic Party.
At present, the Republican Party has taken the lead and controlled the House of Representatives with a slight advantage. If this kind of infighting is stirred up, the Democrats can win over some people and become a majority in the House of Representatives, and support Biden's administration and voting for the decree, it would be a big problem, so it is really difficult to do what to do. If the Trump issue is not solved, the Republican Party will probably not be able to win the election before Trump dies. After all, this old man will keep announcing his participation in the new presidential election.
▲ Pence Challenge Trump will benefit the Democratic Party
Now, the Republican Party’s in-house party publicly stands out to challenge Trump’s representative is Trump’s vice president Pence. During the Capitol Hill riot, Pence was denounced as a traitor by Trump as a traitor because he refused Trump’s request to deny the election results. He threatened by Trump’s fans to “hang”, and from that Later, the two parted ways, from close partners to endless enemies. Of course, Pence could not be Trump's opponent in the party primary election, but because he served as Trump's aide for a long time, when the two competed, Pence may reveal many Trump's black materials, giving Trump himself great lethality. This betrayal of his former comrades also made Trump, who was easily emotionally out of control, likely to do extreme verbal behaviors, arousing the disgust of middle-aged voters. All of this will undoubtedly help the Democratic Party win the election.
To be fair, Trump himself is not a good president. He has no experience in governing, he speaks the truth, makes decisions with a stubborn mind, and has interests in his eyes and is unrestrained, but he is at least a more real person. He is not as benevolent, righteous and moral as old American politicians, and is full of men and women prostitutes. This is also the reason why many voters like him, and it also reflects the Americans' desire to reform politics. Judging from the trend, it is inevitable that the Republican Party will abandon Trump. At this time, it may be the time for Trump to form a third party to completely disrupt American politics.
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