On the last weekend before the election, Obama, a former president and veteran Democratic cadre who was not keen on media footage, suddenly appeared in Pennsylvania, on the same stage as his former partner Biden canvassed for Senate candidate Fettman, trying to save the Senate se

On the last weekend before the election, former president and veteran Democratic cadre who are not keen on media footage suddenly appeared in Pennsylvania , and on the same stage as his former partner Biden canvassed for Senate candidate Fettman, trying to save this Senate seat in danger. The latest poll shows that Fettman's support rate gap with his Republican opponent and political amateur Dr. Oz is within one percentage point. Obama on

is still dressed in a blue shirt, still neat and elegant, but his iconic confident smile disappears from his face, emphasizing with a tired and hoarse voice that Democratic candidates with rich political experience can make more money fall into the pockets of workers and make the streets safer. The entire speech not only fell into the defensive position—after all, economy and security are exactly the main attack points of the Republican Party—but also exuded a hint of tragic atmosphere.

Obama and Biden stand up for Fettman / Nguyen

Obama's old horse runs to Pennsylvania assisting the election reflects the unfavorable situation of the Democratic Party's election situation. In fact, it is not just Pennsylvania. In the 2020 election, the Democratic Party is losing a lot of blood: Arizona governoral election, the beauty version of Trump Cary Lake's poll advantage is expanding; Georgia senator seats are in the competition, the Republican black version of Trump Herschel Walker is also slightly better; Wisconsin will likely elect Republican senators, and the governor's victory or defeat is unpredictable.

Some deep blue iron vote areas also showed signs of shaking: on the northwest coast Oregon suddenly became in a hurry, and a Republican governor might be elected. The New Hampshire Senate election situation is anxious, and the New York governor is no longer in his pocket. The Democratic Party’s Thousand Mile Political Delta is frequently seen. These fragmented leaves indicate that the season will begin to change.

According to the 538 website's forecast on November 7, the probability of the Democrats saving the House of Representatives is only 17%, and the probability of saving the Senate is not more than half, only 45%. At the state level, the governors of most states will be Republicans. The Democratic Party suddenly fell from the full power of the president and the House of Representatives two years ago to the land where Biden was the commander of the barely commander, and when the building was about to collapse, there was no general in Shu, so he could only rely on Huang Zhong Obama to stand up.

The opposite Republican Party, MAGA (Make America Great Again, that is, "make America Great Again") is in full swing, and newcomers are emerging, preparing for the big banner of Trumpism. Compared with the long-term impact of this tide, the Democratic Party’s win or loss is no longer so important.

If the impact on Capitol Hill on January 6 shows that Trump is a thief in the country and the MAGA party members are a gang of mobs that harm the country and the people, why did they not decline after Biden's two years in power, but instead re-install? What exactly are the problems with the Democratic and Republican establishment that make so many voters rather believe that various Trumps will be better answers?

This is exactly why Obama must come to Pennsylvania. Behind the MAGA wave, the real winner is the white working class in the United States, represented by the voters in Pennsylvania. They are the source of this political earthquake that has been running since 2016. At present, the seismic wave is obviously still extending, and the restructuring of the voter sector that has been once every few decades has begun. The concepts of left, right, progress, and conservatism may collapse and be reshaped around the new "most". The traditional Republican Party has been possessed and taken over, while the Democratic Party is clearly on the defensive.

At present, the 2022 midterm election is not a simple "pendulum effect" or "technical adjustment" of the opposition party to regain the parliament. Its results will cause the entire world to fluctuate for a long time. The political landscape of the United States may also undergo major changes every decades, and looking back will be a world of change.

White laborers form the next "most" alliance?

The political territory boundaries of various factions of power have changed repeatedly in American history. The most relishable thing is that the abolition of slavery was a Republican, while the Democratic Party once represented slavery and conservative. American political parties are actually a coalition platform that uses policies to tie up the voter sector.The sector is always drifting and reorganizing.

How to achieve the huge changes in the voter base? Timothy Shenk, a political scientist at George Washington University, proposed a framework: For politicians, the key to victory is how to make the core and marginal voter group of voters in their party form a "majority". In each era, in accordance with the trend of socio-economic and cultural, a core voter group that dominates the era will emerge. If it can successfully obtain the support of some surrounding sectors under the organizational leadership and coordination of interests of politicians, it will constitute a solid "majority". The formation-disintegration-reorganization of this "most" is reflected on the surface as the reconstruction or even interchange of the base of party voters.

1919 White laborers who participated in the strike / Bettmann Archieve

Shenk believes that the "most" reconstruction happens once every 30 years. In the 1930s, after the Great Depression of , a major alliance with the white working class as the core sector was established with the white working class as its core sector based on the protection of employment and income. Since the 1960s, the equal rights movement and social problem reform have gradually become the mainstream trend of society. The Democratic Party has established a major alliance with urban residents and high-education classes to pull minorities and immigrants. Since the 1980s and 1990s, the majority of economic globalization and neoliberalism have established a core sector with its vast beneficiaries, namely the so-called establishment faction of the two parties. When the major alliance is stable, politics is reflected in broad consensus; when the major alliance is fluctuating, it is reflected in fierce differences. The United States is currently at the end of this cycle. The gap between the rich and the poor and industrial transfer left behind by the reduction of globalization dividends are brewing the volatility and restructuring of the voter sector, and the MAGA movement is a sign.

Whether the tag is left or right, patriotic unions or white supremacy, MAGA is essentially the white labor sector has stood up again from the New Deal alliance in the 1930s to get a pill from the social movement equal rights alliance and globalization alliance that abandoned itself in the 1960s. They are as angry as "The Joker" and as desperate as "Hidden Land ". The "again" they emphasize is the "great" of returning to the Roosevelt New Deal and the post-war white labor force that has stable economic work, mainstream cultural status, and political voice.

Under the shadow of unprecedented inflation and economic crisis , MAGA is obviously no longer just a slogan of the white working class. The MAGA party inherited the cultural conservatism of the Republican cultural war and Pat Buchanan's anti-free trade policy. The MAGA party of "Trump Garomney" is uniting more sectors: blacks and Latino working class, urban small business owners, religious organizations (especially Christian evangelicals), shrinking middle class, and even Asian elite immigrants (Chinese, Indian, Korean) who suffer from political correctness. The core voter group of voters mentioned by Schenk + the majority of the politics supported by the surrounding sectors are forming in a way that is beneficial to the Republican Party.

The hilltop lost by Obama

The current structure of the Democratic Party is difficult to digest the needs of MAGA voters. The Democratic Party still retains the weakness left by the social movement equal rights alliance in the 1960s: talking to itself, being separated from the masses, and gradually moving towards wealthy, college-aged urban residents and progressive middle class in the suburbs. The white labor sector has since begun to wander from the Democratic political architecture and even began to drift.

According to Schenk's view, the Social Movement Equality Alliance has been calling out to a small number of American city people from the very beginning. Today, the Democratic Party’s radical , the ideological , which is obsessed with environmental actions and critical theories, is far away from the actual needs of voters. Even if you give various reasons to threaten "If you don't do this, the world will be over", you cannot persuade those who face livelihood problems every day to provide practical support. What they need, as Obama emphasized at the rally, is money in his pocket and stable policing, rather than the newly popular theoretical dogma.

Strangely, although Obama, as a representative of globalization and political elitism, is not favored by the white working class, and his policy during his term is also one of the factors that makes the Democrats lose their support for the working class, he foresaw the relationship between Democrats and the working class 30 years ago, and once tried to give advice to save the working class's support for Democrats.

In October this year, Obama co-authored but unpublished 250-page manuscript "Politics of Change" co-authored by Robert Fisher, a professor of economics at Harvard University in the 1990s, was shot out by "HTM1 New York Times ". In this manuscript, Obama fiercely criticized the Democratic Party’s disconnection line, ambitiously trying to bring the core part of Roosevelt’s New Deal—white labor— back to the Democratic Party and build a lasting victory coalition.

Obama's Manuscript of "Politics of Change" in the year / New York Times

However, the times are better than people. Many years later, Obama himself became the one who pushed the Democratic Party further into the "coastal elite party." After all, the white working class in the United States is not as "revolutionary" as the working class in Marx's classic theory. As early as the 1850s, they were the main force of the anti-pagan, xenophobic, and anti-immigrant " Nothing Movement ", and the main force in the promotion of the "Chinese Exclusion Act" of 1882. Its legacy has influenced to this day. They are actually very conservative in cultural and ethical concepts. Military loyalty and patriotism are an important source of military force for the United States. Diplomacy naturally dislikes global free trade, and many of them tend to be isolated and do not advocate excessive export order. Policy requires expanding domestic expenditure and reducing foreign expenditure. This is not highly compatible with the Democratic agenda. The Democrats refuse to acknowledge the weaknesses of their existing agenda, but instead rely on the intimidation tactic of "Trump is here, vote for me" to keep winning. They try to win by belittling their opponents rather than facing the response needs, which is obviously in a passive way.

Nowadays, the former workers' allies have become Biden's mortal enemy of public condemnation, and the hill that Obama once wanted to contract was intercepted by Trump. Wandering outside Lianzhuang's door is an opportunity that the Democratic Party missed.

Of course, the Democratic Party is not in a desperate situation. In addition to the core white labor sector, there are many still loose intermediate sectors that depend on the MAGA movement. Even if the midterm elections are hit, if Democrats can be shamed and brave, they can "appear a character, face and solve the real current problems, and coordinate the needs of various sectors, form a new major alliance, it may still turn the situation around," Schenk said. "If you can let people put down the stereotype that 'politicians are all shit and nothing will change', then there will be a 'most' outside the door waiting to respond to the call, join a broad progressive movement, and rewrite the rules of the entire system."

This reminds people of a small figure in the Democratic Party, a young Michigan state senator, Mallory McMorrow, became popular on the Internet for putting forward a new slogan "Enlightened Americans Take Back their Country." She said loudly: "What is lost in the mad ranks is another America: a smart and compassionate America, and now it is starting to become active to establish itself and become a powerful balance force... I believe that as the critical midterm elections begin to appear on the rapidly approaching political horizon, an enlightened America is on the cusp of revival." (Editor / Quan Wenwu)

The sector is always drifting and reorganizing.

How to achieve the huge changes in the voter base? Timothy Shenk, a political scientist at George Washington University, proposed a framework: For politicians, the key to victory is how to make the core and marginal voter group of voters in their party form a "majority". In each era, in accordance with the trend of socio-economic and cultural, a core voter group that dominates the era will emerge. If it can successfully obtain the support of some surrounding sectors under the organizational leadership and coordination of interests of politicians, it will constitute a solid "majority". The formation-disintegration-reorganization of this "most" is reflected on the surface as the reconstruction or even interchange of the base of party voters.

1919 White laborers who participated in the strike / Bettmann Archieve

Shenk believes that the "most" reconstruction happens once every 30 years. In the 1930s, after the Great Depression of , a major alliance with the white working class as the core sector was established with the white working class as its core sector based on the protection of employment and income. Since the 1960s, the equal rights movement and social problem reform have gradually become the mainstream trend of society. The Democratic Party has established a major alliance with urban residents and high-education classes to pull minorities and immigrants. Since the 1980s and 1990s, the majority of economic globalization and neoliberalism have established a core sector with its vast beneficiaries, namely the so-called establishment faction of the two parties. When the major alliance is stable, politics is reflected in broad consensus; when the major alliance is fluctuating, it is reflected in fierce differences. The United States is currently at the end of this cycle. The gap between the rich and the poor and industrial transfer left behind by the reduction of globalization dividends are brewing the volatility and restructuring of the voter sector, and the MAGA movement is a sign.

Whether the tag is left or right, patriotic unions or white supremacy, MAGA is essentially the white labor sector has stood up again from the New Deal alliance in the 1930s to get a pill from the social movement equal rights alliance and globalization alliance that abandoned itself in the 1960s. They are as angry as "The Joker" and as desperate as "Hidden Land ". The "again" they emphasize is the "great" of returning to the Roosevelt New Deal and the post-war white labor force that has stable economic work, mainstream cultural status, and political voice.

Under the shadow of unprecedented inflation and economic crisis , MAGA is obviously no longer just a slogan of the white working class. The MAGA party inherited the cultural conservatism of the Republican cultural war and Pat Buchanan's anti-free trade policy. The MAGA party of "Trump Garomney" is uniting more sectors: blacks and Latino working class, urban small business owners, religious organizations (especially Christian evangelicals), shrinking middle class, and even Asian elite immigrants (Chinese, Indian, Korean) who suffer from political correctness. The core voter group of voters mentioned by Schenk + the majority of the politics supported by the surrounding sectors are forming in a way that is beneficial to the Republican Party.

The hilltop lost by Obama

The current structure of the Democratic Party is difficult to digest the needs of MAGA voters. The Democratic Party still retains the weakness left by the social movement equal rights alliance in the 1960s: talking to itself, being separated from the masses, and gradually moving towards wealthy, college-aged urban residents and progressive middle class in the suburbs. The white labor sector has since begun to wander from the Democratic political architecture and even began to drift.

According to Schenk's view, the Social Movement Equality Alliance has been calling out to a small number of American city people from the very beginning. Today, the Democratic Party’s radical , the ideological , which is obsessed with environmental actions and critical theories, is far away from the actual needs of voters. Even if you give various reasons to threaten "If you don't do this, the world will be over", you cannot persuade those who face livelihood problems every day to provide practical support. What they need, as Obama emphasized at the rally, is money in his pocket and stable policing, rather than the newly popular theoretical dogma.

Strangely, although Obama, as a representative of globalization and political elitism, is not favored by the white working class, and his policy during his term is also one of the factors that makes the Democrats lose their support for the working class, he foresaw the relationship between Democrats and the working class 30 years ago, and once tried to give advice to save the working class's support for Democrats.

In October this year, Obama co-authored but unpublished 250-page manuscript "Politics of Change" co-authored by Robert Fisher, a professor of economics at Harvard University in the 1990s, was shot out by "HTM1 New York Times ". In this manuscript, Obama fiercely criticized the Democratic Party’s disconnection line, ambitiously trying to bring the core part of Roosevelt’s New Deal—white labor— back to the Democratic Party and build a lasting victory coalition.

Obama's Manuscript of "Politics of Change" in the year / New York Times

However, the times are better than people. Many years later, Obama himself became the one who pushed the Democratic Party further into the "coastal elite party." After all, the white working class in the United States is not as "revolutionary" as the working class in Marx's classic theory. As early as the 1850s, they were the main force of the anti-pagan, xenophobic, and anti-immigrant " Nothing Movement ", and the main force in the promotion of the "Chinese Exclusion Act" of 1882. Its legacy has influenced to this day. They are actually very conservative in cultural and ethical concepts. Military loyalty and patriotism are an important source of military force for the United States. Diplomacy naturally dislikes global free trade, and many of them tend to be isolated and do not advocate excessive export order. Policy requires expanding domestic expenditure and reducing foreign expenditure. This is not highly compatible with the Democratic agenda. The Democrats refuse to acknowledge the weaknesses of their existing agenda, but instead rely on the intimidation tactic of "Trump is here, vote for me" to keep winning. They try to win by belittling their opponents rather than facing the response needs, which is obviously in a passive way.

Nowadays, the former workers' allies have become Biden's mortal enemy of public condemnation, and the hill that Obama once wanted to contract was intercepted by Trump. Wandering outside Lianzhuang's door is an opportunity that the Democratic Party missed.

Of course, the Democratic Party is not in a desperate situation. In addition to the core white labor sector, there are many still loose intermediate sectors that depend on the MAGA movement. Even if the midterm elections are hit, if Democrats can be shamed and brave, they can "appear a character, face and solve the real current problems, and coordinate the needs of various sectors, form a new major alliance, it may still turn the situation around," Schenk said. "If you can let people put down the stereotype that 'politicians are all shit and nothing will change', then there will be a 'most' outside the door waiting to respond to the call, join a broad progressive movement, and rewrite the rules of the entire system."

This reminds people of a small figure in the Democratic Party, a young Michigan state senator, Mallory McMorrow, became popular on the Internet for putting forward a new slogan "Enlightened Americans Take Back their Country." She said loudly: "What is lost in the mad ranks is another America: a smart and compassionate America, and now it is starting to become active to establish itself and become a powerful balance force... I believe that as the critical midterm elections begin to appear on the rapidly approaching political horizon, an enlightened America is on the cusp of revival." (Editor / Quan Wenwu)