[Editor's Note] This article is authorized by the author Yang Feng and is reprinted from the official account " Yang Feng ". There are many exciting contents, welcome to follow. Tomorrow is the US midterm election voting day. Today we will make a big reasoning.
midterm election is the midterm exam for Biden . Unfortunately, the Democratic Party’s election situation is not favored.
If the Democratic Party is not elected well, what impact will it have on Biden and the world?
According to the latest poll, the Democrats may lose control of the House and the Senate. If the Democrats lose control of the Senate and House of Representatives at the same time, Biden will definitely become a lame-duck president.
US politics will enter the preparatory period of the 2024 presidential election ahead of schedule, and all forces will make arrangements in advance, the most eye-catching of them is still Trump .
Will Trump make a comeback and reappear?
If Trump appears again and runs for the next president on behalf of Republican , will Trump win the election?
If Trump is re-elected as president in 2024, what impact will it have on the United States and the world? What impact will it have on China and Russia?
first, Biden will become the president of the lame duck in advance.
Biden's two-year term still continues his predecessor Trump. In order to deal with the new crown epidemic, the government budget has been greatly expanded, and the Federal Reserve has also continued to carry out quantitative easing policies.
Until the end of last year, during Biden's tenure, inflation in the United States rose and energy prices rose. These accounts will be counted on Biden, and Biden will become the president who cannot handle economic problems.
Second, Biden will also be accused of failing to respond to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Biden wants to continue to provide a lot of assistance to Ukraine in the next two years of term, which will become more and more difficult. There are increasing number of Republican voters oppose the continued unpaid aid of Ukraine.
According to the amount of the United States’ aid to Ukraine so far, it has exceeded US$50 billion. We said last time that it can be regarded as half of the war between the United States and Afghanistan .
Not to mention that Russia is trapped in the quagmire of war, the United States itself has also been trapped in the quagmire of Russia-Ukraine war, and the United States, Russia and Europe have both been trapped in the quagmire of war.
American politics is indeed in an anti-China sentiment and needs to deal with China.
But Ukraine is not China after all. The last time Biden's US$40 billion aid bill to Ukraine has been questioned by some members of Congress and has suffered some resistance.
If the Republicans take control of the Senate and the House of Representatives after the midterm elections, Biden will find it difficult to provide Ukraine with a large amount of military aid. In this way, Biden had to lower the amount of aid to Ukraine, which made it more difficult for Ukraine to face the Russian army on the battlefield.
A moment, Russia has completed part of the mobilization recruitment order, and tens of thousands of troops have entered the service. Europe has slowed down its aid to Ukraine, and if the United States has to reduce its aid to Ukraine.
Without the strong support of the United States, Ukraine will definitely not be able to support it, and Russia will master the rhythm of the battlefield. What will happen to
?
That is purely the inference we made in March, in the early days of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Although Russia cannot drag down the United States, it can drag down Europe. In the end, Europe cannot support it first. Some European countries will give up supporting Ukraine and give up sanctions against Russia. A situation like
is undoubtedly very unfavorable to Zelensky and is very unfavorable to Ukraine.
If at this time, Russia continues to bomb Ukraine's infrastructure, causing problems in Ukrainian people's livelihood, the Ukrainian people may have more anti-war sentiment, which will affect Zelensky's ruling foundation.
Russia does not need to destroy all Ukraine's hydraulic, electricity, and communication network systems. The reason for doing this is:
first, the cost of destroying all is too high. With Russia's existing national strength, the reserves of the arsenal and ammunition database may not be enough.
Second, if all is destroyed, Ukraine's people's livelihood will fall into a huge dilemma, which may cause reverse effects. In addition, Russia will also become the target of public criticism internationally.
third, Ukraine will also try its best to repair damaged infrastructure. The US and Western countries are based on morality and may continue to support Ukraine and assist Ukraine in restoring infrastructure.
So the ideal situation is to keep Ukrainian infrastructure in an incomplete state. For example, 30-40% of infrastructure is in a state that cannot work, and is in a state that is not working for a long time and needs to be repaired.
In addition, Russia can of course destroy it in turn. Bomb the infrastructure of this city today and change to another place tomorrow. The urban infrastructure that was bombed before may be repaired after a while, it doesn't matter. This is equivalent to opening the Internet to a certain extent, giving Ukrainian people a breathing time.
After a while, bomb and destroy it, especially those infrastructure that may be used to support the Ukrainian army's operations.
Since Russia and Ukraine are in a state of war, Russia bombs Ukraine and destroys some of its living forces. This is an act of war, and the United States and the West have no way to blame it.
The benefits of Russia doing this are:
First, destroys Ukraine's vitality, although only part of the vitality, the Ukrainian army's logistics and front-line combat capabilities will be affected.
Second, does not produce a counter-effect, causing the Ukrainian people to feel anti-war and war-weary. In this way, Zelensky's position was in danger.
This is another kind of "talk by fighting".
On the day the Russian-Ukrainian War started, we once mentioned that Putin wants the army to face the brink of the border, forcing Zelensky to negotiate and accept the conditions of Russia. Therefore, the Russian army entered Ukraine on a large scale.
But Zelensky is just a false negotiation and does not want to have a real negotiation. This caused the Russian army to be too dispersed, and Russia had to give up its plan to promote negotiations and instead concentrate its troops to the eastern Wudong area, focusing on the eastern Wudong area.
Therefore, if the Democratic Party loses the election, it may form a more favorable situation for Russia. In fact, after Russia recruited troops, supplemented missiles , purchased drone , and dared to bomb Ukraine, it has slowly regained control of the situation.
has long been an unfavorable situation for the United States and Ukraine. If the Democrats lose the election, it will only make the unfavorable situation worse.
Third, If the Democrats lose the election, they will also be in trouble diplomatically.
As soon as Biden took office, he was very confident and confident in promoting the strategies of the United Allies. The Biden administration believes that as long as it unites allies, both China and Russia can only surrender.
However, Biden spent more than half a year mobilizing allies, but found that the results were not effective. During that period, although the warships from Britain, Germany, France and other countries came to South China Sea to sail freely, they were all just doing it, just like walking a catwalk in the South China Sea.
Biden later held another democratic summit, and the results were even worse.
So, the Russian-Ukrainian war was ignited, and in the end, the Baltic North Stream natural gas pipeline was bombed. The Russian-Ukrainian war has pushed many allies to the frontline of inflation, especially EU .
European countries have already seen people oppose government support for Ukraine, high natural gas, high electricity prices, and rising right-wing forces, which are all unfavorable to the US-European Union.
Nowadays, the natural gas pipeline has been blown up, which has even destroyed the patience of some European countries. Didn’t the German Chancellor Scholz visit China two days ago? We mentioned two days ago that Scholz withstood the triple pressure, domestic, EU, and the United States, to visit China.
The reason is that Scholz can no longer trust the United States.
So, the confidence of allies in the United States has been shaken.
Plus in August, the United States passed the " Chip and Science Act " and the "Inflation Reduction Act". This is not only aimed at China, but also the allies of the United States are also targeted by these two bills.
This is a wavering in confidence in the political and economic situation of the United States.
Trump has been in power for four years, and the Democratic Party accused Trump of destroying the relationship between the United States and allies. Now, Biden will also follow in Trump's footsteps. However, Biden's excessive use of allies has overdrawn the credit of the United States. Over time, the number of countries willing to cooperate with the United States will also decrease, and the willingness to cooperate with the United States will also decrease.
This midterm election battle is not only a midterm test for Biden, but also a test of whether Biden can continue to effectively implement policies during his next two years of office.
If the Democratic Party loses the election, Biden will not only become a lame duck at home, but will also encounter difficulties abroad. The United States has no reason to obey his words and cooperate with his requests.
In addition, the Russian-Ukrainian war is even more difficult to sustain. Biden's path to presidential re-election in 2024 may be a pause.
In fact, we had already pointed out one thing clearly as early as May and June last year. At that time, the United States released the inflation data for April, and the CPI rose by 4.2% year-on-year. If Biden cannot handle US inflation well, the Democratic Party will not have to choose the midterm election at the end of this year.
means that on the one hand, the Democratic Party is not optimistic about how good inflation can be handled, and on the other hand, the Democratic Party is likely to lose.
The Biden administration has worked hard for more than a year, and has released its strategic oil reserves last year and this year, but it still cannot effectively lower the oil price.
Biden also tried last year and this year, requiring Saudi Arabia and other Middle East oil-producing countries to increase their production, but Saudi Arabia ignored Biden's request and even decided more than a month ago that OPEC+ would implement production cuts in November, reducing production by 2 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia did not give Biden any face.
Looking at Biden's current diplomatic situation, South Korea is hesitant; the EU is suspicious; Germany takes other actions; the new Australian government also wants to improve economic and trade relations with China; Southeast Asian countries wait and see, and some Southeast Asian countries even ignore the new economic framework of the United States.
Not to mention, many countries boycotted not to participate in the America Summit held by the United States in June.
If the Democratic Party loses the election, the Republican Party will grow in strength. Those who are interested in the 2024 presidential throne will actively deploy, and the most conspicuous one is still Trump.
In the past few days, Trump has seen ads on YouTube. Trump's ambitions remain undiminished. Even if there is a Mar-a-Lago incident, it will not affect Trump's determination to run for president again.
Since Trump still has many loyal supporters, unless the Biden administration can use judicial cases to fight Trump, Trump has a high chance of winning the party primary election.
In fact, if the Democrats were not afraid of Trump, there would be no Mar-Lago search incident.
If Trump is re-elected as President of the United States in 2024, for China and Russia, it will be that the old opponent will fight back and everyone will compete again.
First of all, Trump will inevitably make some corrections to Biden's route during his tenure.
Biden's energy policy may be the option Trump took the lead in revising. As soon as Biden took office last year, he stopped the oil pipeline between Canada and the United States' West Coast. The Democratic Party’s long-term policies do not support petrochemical energy. But Trump will support the U.S. oil and gas industry.
If global inflation drops slightly after two years, then the United States may not require Saudi Arabia to increase oil production, but reduce oil production and increase oil prices, especially in the next two years, if the United States and the world experience economic recession.
In addition, the delicate deadlock between the United States and Saudi Arabia is likely to improve.
is a very simple truth. Trump emphasizes that the United States is preferred and interests are preferred. As long as Saudi Arabia continues to purchase large quantities of arms from the United States, there will be no great conflict between the two countries, which Trump cannot let go.
As for the relationship between the United States and the European Union at that time, it may be even more subtle. Trump previously emphasized the US priority policy and also fought a tariff war with the EU, with total steel and aluminum tariffs, automobile tariffs, and aircraft subsidies for Boeing and Airbus . After that round of tariff war and mutual revenge, Trump's relationship with the EU was not doing well. After Biden took office, the relationship between the two sides was repaired to some extent. However, after the Russian-Ukraine war and the bombing of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline, the relationship between the United States and Europe was somewhat damaged. It is hard to say whether the relationship between the United States and Europe can be repaired at the moment. However, after the two US presidents, Trump and Biden, took turns to struggle, since the interests of European countries were completely ignored by the United States, it is difficult for the US-Europe relations to reach their previous peak.
In other words, since Biden announced in a high-profile manner that the United States is back, America is back, European countries have not fully supported the United States and actively participated in the United States' Indo-Pacific Strategy , after the series of events just mentioned, it is difficult for the United States and Europe to elevate to the past peak. When Trump takes office again, it is difficult to make substantial improvements.
is probably discouraged for European countries, right? After two US Presidents, Trump and Biden, they have different styles, but in essence they both have the United States first. Biden is just good at packaging. On the surface, he does not say that the United States is preferred, but in essence they both have the United States first. The same thing between the two was that both caused damage to Europe.
If Trump really wins the 2024 presidential election, Trump will be very embarrassed by the resumption of the blame. During Trump's tenure, European countries still remember Trump's arbitrary actions. In addition, the damage caused to these European countries during his tenure, what enthusiasm can European countries have to support Trump's route against China?
The most curious thing is how Trump will face Russia and Putin?
Trump had an inexplicable "friendship" towards Putin, and at the beginning of his tenure, there was a rumor that he wanted to win over Russia and deal with China. However, Trump was constrained by the Democratic Party at that time and the strategy in the alliance with Russia could not be implemented.
However, if Trump is elected again, the Democratic Party will not be able to attack Trump's Russian Gate as it did before. Therefore, Trump can once again carry out the strategy of allying with Russia.
But history is so paradoxical. The possibility of a coalition system in Russia has been completely destroyed by Biden. The United States has fomented Ukraine, which has damaged the last possibility of a coalition system. Even if Trump, who is friendly to Russia, comes to power again, this route has been blocked.
Putting aside Russia, it can no longer trust the United States, what can the United States use to trade with Russia and impress Russia? The four places in eastern Wu have become Russia's territory.
According to the reasoning just now, if the United States reduces its aid to Ukraine, the Ukrainian battlefield will be dominated by Russia. Russia has the final say. What can Trump use to exchange with Putin?
Of course, Trump is going to run for the 2024 US presidential election, and the lawsuit he faces is still a variable. Let's wait and see its development.
Let's make a conclusion:
According to the current election situation in the United States, the Democratic Party will lose. If the Democratic Party loses the Senate and the House of Representatives, Biden will inevitably become a lame duck president in advance.
Because Biden cannot suppress inflation, cannot suppress oil prices, cannot make Ukraine win in the Russian-Ukraine war, and cannot successfully suppress China, Biden will be portrayed as an incompetent president by his Republican opponent.
Since Biden could not achieve results in his first two years of office, let alone what effect can he achieve on the four major items he just mentioned after the lame duck.
If the US economy experiences a recession next year and loses the support of the domestic economy, it will be even more difficult for the United States to play internationally.
The situation facing the United States is that the Middle East oil-producing countries do not obey the command, European allies are shaken, Southeast Asian countries ignore it, and Latin America boycotts and does not support it. What does this show?
Don’t look at Biden’s pride when he shouted the G7 country, and it seemed that the whole world was under the control of the United States. But in fact, even Germany, among the G7 members, has other ideas and plans.
However, the four regions mentioned just now have been out of control, and the United States' world hegemony has been loosened. This is where Trump attacked Biden.
In July this year, Trump said: Biden only took two years to gain recognition and respect from all over the world. We have gone from the strongest country in history... to perhaps the weakest country. We are no longer respected by anyone...
People often use success or failure to judge heroes. The success or failure of a democratic society lies in the election. If the Democrats lose the midterm elections, it will almost be a conclusion. After the midterm elections, Biden will face the next wave of economic problems in the United States.
If the United States cannot maintain economic weakness next year, move towards recession, and the stock market falls again, Biden will have no political achievements during his term of office. For Biden, the situation is quite serious.
Of course, this will also affect the United States' foreign game of major powers, making the United States relatively weakened in the game.
The truth is that although the United States is so powerful, there is no way to deal with it in a short while. But as long as you persevere and keep developing, the United States will have problems on its own.
Biden took office and overused the U.S. national strength and has overdrawn the credit and reliability of the U.S. There will be trouble for you in the future.
Today's analysis and reasoning ends here. This is the current commentary of Yang Feng in Fengyun World. Thank you for watching, we will see you next time.
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-