In this world, if you want to select a ranking list of countries with "confidence" then Turkmenistan is definitely on the list.
This underdeveloped country with an area of less than 500,000 square kilometers (equivalent to the size of three Shandong Provinces) and a population of less than 6 million has terrifying natural gas reserves that are not matched by their land population.
According to statistics, Turkmen has more than 20 trillion cubic meters of natural gas reserves, which is three times that of China, accounting for nearly 10% of the world's reserves , ranking fourth in the world, second only to Russia, Iran and Qatar.
Originally, China, Europe and Russia were in line with each other in the export territory of Turkmenistan natural gas, becoming the country's largest customer.
However, in recent years, Turkmen has imported almost 90% of the country's natural gas into China, and about 40 billion cubic meters of natural gas each year have benefited China's energy a lot.
What makes Chinese people even more happy is that Turkmen also handed over a super large oil and gas zone in the country to a Chinese company for 35 years of development rights, which is the only oil and gas field in Turkish history that was mined for foreign companies.
Logically speaking, Russia and Turkmen belong to the former Soviet Union. The EU, which is rich and lacks oil and short of gas, is also salivating about Turkmen natural gas. Why did China finally come from behind and become NO.1 of Turkmen natural gas exports?
(Turkmenistan's "Gate of Hell", that is, a cave full of natural gas)
To explain this issue, we must start with the "fighting energy" between Russia and Turkmen.
(I) The geese pass by and pluck the feathers. Russia and Turkey "fight" the United States, China and Europe see hope of profit
Turkmenistan has a lot of history with China and has been an important intermediate station on the Silk Road since the Han Dynasty.
According to historical scholars, the prototype of the sweat-blooded BMW that is well-known in China is the Akhaltekin Horse from Turkmen. It has a history of more than 2,000 years and was once given to China by Turkmen as a state gift.
(Sweat-blood BMW)
Entering the 20th century, Turkmenistan was one of the five major republics of the Soviet Union in Central Asia. It had discovered considerable oil and natural gas here as early as the 1960s. At its heyday, Turkmen's annual natural gas production exceeded 80 billion cubic meters, making it an important natural gas export region for the Soviet Union and even Europe.
Because Turkmen's natural gas investment and construction were all under the Soviet system in the early stages, for a long time until the beginning of the 20th century, Turkmen's domestic natural gas could only go to the northern line and transported from Russia to Eastern Europe, and Turkmen locally lacked control over natural gas.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Turkmenistan was still under the shadow of Russia for more than ten years.
Russia not only has the right to decide on the pipeline transportation of Turkmenistan's natural gas and make Turkmen pay high transit fees, but also has the right to decide how much share Turkmen should export to Russia and Europe each year.
Simply put, the highest power of Turkmen natural gas exports is in the hands of Russia, and Turkmen is only responsible for production, while Russia is responsible for the transportation to sales.
Russia can pluck its hair and harvest Turkmen's natural gas wealth.
In the first few years, the Turkmenistan country, which had just emerged from the turbulent situation, was weak and poor, while Russia maintained a high oil and gas import quota as usual, so Russia and Turkey can still maintain happy cooperation.
(Yelticin)
As a result, after the global natural gas price soared in the late 1990s, Yeltsin then started to take the natural gas business alone, and cracks appeared on both sides.
Russia itself is the world's largest natural gas reserve country, and it also does natural gas business with Europeans. If Turkmeno exports some natural gas to Europe, it means that there will be less cake to be distributed to Russia.
At that time, Russia's foreign exchange was in short supply and economic difficulties, so despite my situation, he tore off his face and significantly reduced the natural gas imported from Turkmen, which suddenly put 40% of the domestic budget revenue on natural gas, half of the GDP and the natural gas industry-related Turkmen into trouble.
After Putin came to power, Russia-Turkey relations were temporarily suspended. With the recovery of Russia's economy and Putin's emphasis on Central Asia, natural gas exported to Russia from Turkmen has recovered, and the two sides have signed a natural gas contract of more than 50 billion cubic meters per year.
(Former Turkmenistan President Beldmuhamedov and Putin)
But the good times did not last long. The outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 put the relationship between the two countries into freezing again.
At that time, the major customers of natural gas, European countries fell into economic downturn, and the demand for energy was no longer so urgent, which caused both Russia and Turkey to decline, and the prices of natural gas were greatly reduced.
In the face of real interests, brothers will settle accounts clearly, not to mention two distant relatives who have been separated for more than ten years.
If Russia continues to import natural gas from Turkmen at high contract prices, then the huge losses will fall on the Russian energy company.
So Russia directly cut the import volume of 50 billion cubic meters to 10 billion, and even this mere 10 billion could not be maintained after 15 years. combined with the impact of Western sanctions, the natural gas payments that Russia should have paid to Turkmen cannot be paid off.
Since then, a series of cooperation between the two parties has been quickly stranded, and the series of oil and gas pipelines originally scheduled to be built have been terminated indefinitely.
So Russia, which originally monopolized Turkmen natural gas and had the greatest advantage, took the initiative to give up its position. The "fighting spirit" between Russia and Turkey allowed surrounding forces to see hope of making profits from it.
(Turkmenistan's several planned pipeline blueprints)
(II) Turkmen, which is stagnant and has a worrying security situation - Indian pipeline
Russia's withdrawal made the Americans and Indians eager to try the Turkmen oil and gas cake. The two sides quickly negotiated to open an oil and gas pipeline from Turkmen to India.
As early as the 1990s, Turkmen had already envisioned building an oil and gas channel through Afghanistan and Pakistan to reach India to meet the natural gas needs of South Asia, a market of more than one billion people.
(Turkman-India Line)
After the outbreak of the Afghan war, this suggestion was temporarily shelved. After the breakdown of Russia-Turkey relations, it was put on the agenda again.
The United States and India once supported this South Asia pipeline plan. The existence of this pipeline can not only allow India to obtain urgently needed natural gas resources (to avoid India and Pakistan from obtaining natural gas from Iran), but also enable Afghanistan to obtain tax benefits from oil and gas transit and employment opportunities brought by pipeline infrastructure, which is conducive to post-war reconstruction of Afghanistan.
But the problem follows. Afghanistan, the only way to go, has always been in the shadow of war. The United States and India consortium are very vigilant about investing here and have no capital to come here to sacrifice itself for danger.
Therefore, for more than ten years, this passage has always been at the stage of talking on paper. After the United States withdrew from Afghanistan in a panic, the completion date of this route seemed even more distant.
(Modi and the Turkmen leader)
In addition, the strict conditions for Turkmenistan by international capital that intends to invest in this channel are also difficult for Turkmen.
Their request for "oil and gas mining" exchange for pipeline construction has made the earth dissatisfied. Until August this year, all parties along the route were still quarreling and discussing.
(III) Too many obstacles, European lines are still in the belly
Energy tensions have always been a weakness that Europe, especially developed countries in Western Europe, have been repeatedly controlled by people. The energy crisis that began to burn last year made the whole of Europe miserable, and politicians were worried by the demonstrations brought about by inflation.
(Intensifying energy crisis)
As early as the 2000s, many Western European countries broke out in a winter energy crisis that caused many elderly people to freeze to death due to the storm caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Since Europe's energy channels mainly start from Russia and are transported to Western European countries through Ukraine, every battle between Russia and Ukraine will inevitably cause Western Europe to suffer.
European developed countries, which are not short of money or technology, have always hoped to find another way, from the energy-rich, West Asia and Central Asia, to bypass the repeatedly turbulent Russia and Ukraine, and go straight to Europe .With Europe's strong financial resources and developed technical means, this channel should not be too difficult.
So, after consultation between multiple parties, a world-renowned "Turkmenistan and Europe - Future Cooperation Prospects" meeting was held in 2012. At the meeting, all parties agreed to build an energy pipeline across the Caucasus, Asia Minor and the Balkans from Turkmen with excessive natural gas to Europe. If
can be achieved, then Europe will no longer rely on energy issues at least. Looking at Russia's eyes, Turkmen will also avoid allowing Russia, a middleman, to make a difference and gain the coveted "manufacturer direct sales" status.
This plan is very good, but the most important one is missing: Who will allow transit?
Turkmen is a standard landlocked country, with several countries separated from Europe, with only a few routes.
Northern line Russia has been ruled out.
(The central line of Turkmenistan must pass through Azerbaijan)
The central line of
The central line of tides through the Caspian Sea, and several countries along this waters are still arguing about the division of sovereignty in the Caspian Sea. If the pipeline is to be built from here, it will involve a lot of troublesome sovereignty issues.
. Even if you cross the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan on the other side is also a country rich in oil and gas resources. Azerbaijan itself is not happy to see this pipeline become a tool for Turkmen and itself to compete for the European market, and they are eager to hinder any Turkmen oil and gas from going to Europe. Iran, which passes through the southern line, is also a competitor of Turkmen and will never let the other party take away their big orders.
So for ten years, Europeans could only stare at Turkmen's oil and gas continuously transported to another global oil and gas consumption market - China.
(IV) The end of China. Fisherman Deli
. Contrary to Turkmenistan's dilemma of lack of sales, China's energy gap problem has rapidly magnified with the growth of the economy.
Although China is not short of coal and has abundant oil resources, the environmental pollution generated by coal has seriously affected people's daily lives, while oil is increasingly relying on imports from the Middle East, and the maritime lifeline is easily cut off by external forces. Therefore, it can not only avoid being cut off by foreign countries, but also supply stable and cleaner Turkmen natural gas has become the ideal energy that China is pursuing.
(natural gas pipeline)
In the thirty years after independence, Turkmen was the country with the least social contradictions and the most politically stable among the five Central Asian countries.
pursues the principle of neutrality in diplomacy, pays attention to pragmatism, and is not led by ideology. It is a stable partner for China.
Since the 1990s, China and Turkey have started to cooperate on natural gas purchases.
After 2005, China's energy gap and the dual factors that Turkmen's oil and gas bottleneck were controlled by Russia have led to the idea of building a Central Asian energy channel connecting China.
For Turkmenistan, the continued explosive growth of China's economy means that demand for natural gas will remain at a stable high for a long period of time.
(Schematic diagram of Turkmen China's natural gas pipeline)
At the same time, this line only needs to pass through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, which have good relations with Turkey, to reach China, unlike the European route, which encounters various "Cheng Yaojin" along the way.
Do whatever you want. The two countries officially reached a cooperation agreement on natural gas pipelines in 2006, and Turkmen transports more than 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas every year.
(Turkmen China Natural Gas Pipeline Monument)
Compared with the turtle-like progress of several other lines, the speed of the construction of China's infrastructure maniac really surprised Turkmen. In just over two years, China successfully completed the entire A-section project. By 10 and 14 years, Lines B and Lines C were also completed one after another.
On this side, Europe, India and Caucasus countries are still quarreling at the negotiation table for the Turkmen oil and gas routes. On the other side, China has already made a fortune in silence and put the project on the ground without saying a word.
As of 2021, Turkmen has become China's largest source of pipeline natural gas, with a 56% proportion far higher than the second place Russia's 16%.
At the same time, China is also Turkmen's largest customer, and more than 90% of the country's natural gas is exported to China.
Out of trust in China, Turkmen handed over a large natural gas area in the country, "Bagdre" (meaning a happy place in Turkmen) to Chinese companies for development. It is the only oil and gas cooperation area that Turkmenistan has independently developed for foreign companies.
The first natural gas treatment plant put into production on this land has transported more than 20 billion cubic meters of natural gas to my country in just five years.
(In addition to the oil and gas projects, China has also built a water plant for Turkmen to improve people's livelihood)
Conclusion
China will eventually be able to take over Turkmen's natural gas, not only relying on the procrastination and intrigue of other countries, but also mainly relying on its own strong economy and political stability, and being able to do major tasks efficiently.
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