Stoltenberg said that although NATO is not a party to the conflict, it has played a key role in supporting Ukrainian sovereignty in the face of Russia's indiscriminate attack on Ukraine's infrastructure.

Author of this article: Nanshan Passenger

As the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is facing escalation, NATO is coming to the fore.

According to Global Network , on the 11th, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg announced that Western allies will hold a nuclear deterrence exercise code-named "First Noon" next week as planned, aiming to show Russia that NATO will "stand with Ukraine if necessary."

Stoltenberg said that in the face of Russia's indiscriminate attack on Ukraine's infrastructure, although NATO is not a party to the conflict, it has played a key role in supporting Ukraine's sovereignty. If the planned routine exercise is suddenly cancelled due to the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it will send an error signal to Putin .

At the same time, Stoltenberg also named Belarusian President Lukashenko and asked Belarus to stop cooperating with Russia in military terms.

However, Stoltenberg also emphasized that NATO has not observed changes in Russia's nuclear situation, but is closely monitoring the trends of Russian nuclear weapons.

AP claims that NATO's move has no concerns about Russia's warning.

Then NATO official website updated the full text of Stoltenberg's speech. However, judging from the content, Stoltenberg's speech was still the same, and he continued to speak harshly to Russia. As for how to deter Russia from nuclear deterrence and whether to increase the nuclear weapon deployed by the United States in Europe, none of them said.

The United States supports the European nuclear protection umbrella

NATO's "First Noon" nuclear deterrence exercise is held every year, starting on October 12, 2020 and starting on October 18 last year. The time of this year's "First Noon" nuclear deterrence exercise was determined in February, and the forecast was almost the same as in the previous two years.

This year's exercise scale is the same as before. 14 NATO countries participated in the exercise and did not change due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Regarding the location and content of the exercise, NATO's official website has announced the approximate location and will conduct exercises in Western Europe and North Sea areas. NATO also particularly emphasized that this year's "First Noon" exercise will not be deployed in real ammunition, just like in previous years.

During the drill, NATO will dispatch reconnaissance aircraft and tanker to cooperate with fighter jets equipped with B61 tactical nuclear bomb , such as F-35A, F-15 or "Typhoon" fighter simulation attack program. Considering that the B61 tactical nuclear bomb is a nuclear bomb, does not have the ability to fly, and the exercise location is far away from Russia. So, to put it bluntly, NATO's nuclear deterrence exercise is not a threat to Russia even if it gives itself courage.

Among the NATO member states, only the United States, the United Kingdom and France have nuclear weapons. However, according to the official NATO website, the United States is the pillar of NATO's nuclear deterrence, and Britain's nuclear weapons only "can provide strategic deterrence and make important contributions to alliance security." In other words, the United States does not expect Britain's 225 "Trident II" nuclear missiles to threaten Russia.

France is not a member of the NATO nuclear policy team and has never participated in the NATO nuclear deterrence consultation forum. Its nuclear power is in its own hands and the United States has no right to dominate it. Therefore, in a sense, NATO's so-called "the United States has supported the European nuclear protection umbrella" is not an exaggeration.

However, compared with the peak of Cold War , the nuclear weapons deployed by the United States in Europe are not enough. During the most tense period of 1971, the total number of nuclear weapons in Europe reached a maximum of 7,300.

After the end of the Cold War, the United States significantly abolished nuclear weapons deployed in Europe. According to a leaked document in 2019, the United States has deployed a total of 100 to 150 nuclear weapons in Germany, Belgium , Turkey , Netherlands and Italian military bases, which are the B61 tactical nuclear bombs mentioned above. In addition, seven countries including Czech , Denmark, Greece , provide assistance to the US military's air nuclear mission.

Russia tit for tat

NATO's aggressive nuclear threat tit for tat, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia also strengthened its nuclear situation.

In June, Putin announced that it would deploy the "Iskander-M" short-range ballistic missile that can carry nuclear warheads in Belarus and Kaliningrad , and assist the Belarusian Air Force in upgrading the Su-25 attack aircraft to enable it to carry nuclear weapons.

Recently, the two countries signed an agreement to form a joint combat force. Lukashenko said that the troops will be deployed in "places where needed."

Russia's largest nuclear submarine, the Belgorod, was put into service in early July, and can launch six nuclear torpedoes called "doomsday bombs". Italian media claimed that the Belgorod has disappeared without a trace since appearing in the Arctic at the end of September. Currently, NATO radar is searching for its traces.

The essence of nuclear deterrence is bargaining

But from another perspective, although on the surface, Russia and NATO are strengthening their nuclear deterrence capabilities, the nuclear war may not necessarily fight. Because since the birth of nuclear weapons, the essence of nuclear deterrence is bargaining, this is true for Cuban missile crisis , and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

In March, Biden claimed to achieve the replacement of Russian regime. As a result, Putin ordered Russian nuclear forces to remain ready. Then White House clarified that Biden said the wrong thing again, and Biden also expressed that he would not accept Russia's nuclear threat.

On the surface, this is a diplomatic confrontation between Russia and the United States, but Russia's nuclear deterrence has successfully curbed the United States' ambition to end in person. Biden accepted Putin's bottom line and also restricted Ukraine's military aid, and did not provide advanced heavy weapons and fighter , etc.

So recently, the United States and Russia have once again debated over nuclear deterrence, and it is probably another round of bargaining. Because the four Ukrainian states have joined Russia, but recently the Russian army has lost territory one after another, the Ukrainian army has approached the territory of the four states, and Russia will never hand over these territories. So in his speech on September 21, Putin hinted that he would use nuclear weapons to defend his territory, and Russian officials such as Kadyrov , Medvedev also expressed their support.

At the beginning, Biden's attitude was the same as before, warning Russia that the use of nuclear weapons would cause the situation to get out of control. US National Security Assistant Sullivan claimed that if Russia crossed the line, it would have disastrous consequences. After several days of public confrontation, Russia took a step back. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Zakharova reiterated that Russia does not intend to participate in the "nuclear threat" debate and will avoid a nuclear war.

Recently, Biden's attitude has begun to change, saying that he does not think Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. A few days later, Sullivan confirmed to the media that the leaders of Russia and the United States have been maintaining secret telephone communication recently.

So after private bargaining, the leaders of Russia and the United States may have reached an agreement on the territory of the four states of Ukraine, etc., and the scale and location of NATO's nuclear deterrence exercise have not changed. If Russia responds a few words on diplomatic occasions, then this matter will be over.