▲The Biden administration has continuously emphasized on many public occasions that the Chip and Science Act will have an important impact on national security. ( Science act, referred to as the "CHIP Act"), which officially came into effect after being signed by US President Biden on August 9, Eastern Time. Since the Biden administration has repeatedly emphasized on many public occasions that the Chip and Science Act will have an important impact on national security, this bill is nothing more than a sign that the United States has long been influenced by the concept of capitalist market competition and is pursuing "freedom." A rare major attempt at one of the more neglected "industrial policies" in the spirit of "trade".
Besiege the development of the semiconductor industry in mainland China
Review the Chip and Science Act, which has attracted much attention from the international community. It is the subsidy, tax incentives and other measures implemented by the U.S. government and members of Congress that this bill implements to achieve reconstruction. Currently, the U.S. production capacity accounts for only 11% of the world's domestic advanced chip manufacturing industry. According to the information currently released by the "Chip and Science Act", it will provide more than US$52 billion in budget subsidies for chip production and research in the United States; of which, in addition to US$39 billion in subsidies for semiconductor companies to invest in building factories, US$11.2 billion in subsidies for those engaged in semiconductor industry In addition to R&D related to industrial development; it will provide a four-year 25-year investment in semiconductor companies with the additional condition that they are prohibited from going to mainland China or other relevant countries to build new factories or expand advanced process production capacity within "ten years" after receiving the subsidy. % investment tax deduction. In addition, it authorizes an allocation of US$200 billion within ten years to invest in scientific research, hoping to enhance the competitiveness of the United States in the field of chip science and technology.
Although on the surface, the US Biden administration and members of Congress are actively promoting the "Chip and Science Act", which aims to rebuild the domestic advanced chip manufacturing industry in the United States through the semiconductor industry, thereby reducing dependence on chip imports from Taiwan, South Korea and other countries. In order to solve the problem of supply interruption and the resulting continued surge in chip prices; but behind the scenes, its purpose is actually to contain the development of mainland China's semiconductor industry and thereby improve its competitiveness with mainland China's science and technology . As many members of the House and Senate have said, the U.S. government usually does not support high subsidies for private enterprises in terms of policy choices; however, in the face of the fact that mainland China has provided billions of dollars in subsidies to chip manufacturers, This bill must be considered and supported from the perspective of national security risks and global supply chains.
aims to reestablish the United States
semiconductor manufacturing dominance
At the same time, looking back on After the Second World War , the development of high-end technology industries can be said to be the most critical driving force for global economic growth, among which semiconductors are one of the industries represented by the United States. one. Examining the development process of the huge and complex semiconductor industry in the United States, we can find that it started with the vertically integrated industry chain business model of semiconductor product design and manufacturing in the 1960s. After more than 20 years of development, starting from the mid-1980s, through technology Diffusion and global market expansion began to transform, gradually forming a vertical division of labor system in the industrial chain. That is to say, this process is actually the result of the highly diversified integration of the supply side and demand side of semiconductor products. The "win-win" strategy has been adopted to develop and form the current independent operation industry system of IC design, OEM manufacturing, packaging, and testing. Let the participating enterprises in the industry chain maximize the efficiency and effectiveness of the entire industry chain through professional division of labor and each performing their respective duties.
Due to the development of a highly vertical professional division of labor, many semiconductor small and medium-sized enterprises with innovative potential have been able to give full play to their expertise and finally create world-famous emerging semiconductor giants.These include: Qualcomm , AMD , AMD , Advanced RISC Machines, Huida ( Nvidia ), Xilinx (Xilink), MediaTek and other industries that specialize in IC design, to OEM Major manufacturing companies include Taiwan Semiconductor, UMC, GlobalFoundries, and World Advanced. From the perspective of the business layout of American companies, while utilizing external professional production capacity, for example, IC design companies can concentrate resources on design work areas, which not only avoids the operational risks caused by huge investments in factory construction, but also helps Through continuous technological innovation, we achieve the unique advantages of highly dynamic and flexible operations.
However, after the 1990s, with the rise of the global professional division of labor, the American manufacturing industry further accelerated its migration abroad; after 2010, it was the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence technology, blockchain, emerging metaverse and other sciences The continuous development of technology is impacting the rapid changes in the industrial structure of the United States, and its negative social effects are gradually emerging. Among them, the most obvious one is "STEM": education in the four disciplines of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics, as well as the cultivation of high-end scientific and technological professionals, have gradually been ignored. Especially in an Internet environment dominated by artificial intelligence technology and the Metaverse, "calculation" and " computing power " are key sources of sustained competitive advantage. Countries and regions around the world are actively investing in hoping to gain a leading edge in the next century.
Due to the different economic environments, industrial structures, and education systems of various countries and regions, the implementation strategies adopted are completely different. For example, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China has invested more than 1.5 trillion yuan in "computing power" budget in mid-2021. Faced with The rise and development of high-end technology in mainland China has forced the United States to propose a more forward-looking strategy in order to maintain its global leadership.
There is no doubt that in the past era when the manufacturing industry was the main axis, the United States led the world in elite education in the field of science and technology; however, with the rise of information technology, in the pursuit of "fast food" in the Internet world, software operations are far more difficult and difficult. Learning "hardware technology" has caused the young generation in the United States to be discouraged from learning "hardware technology". Although outstanding foreign students from all over the world filled some of the vacancies in the United States' "talent shortage" before this century, with the gradual rise of emerging countries after this century, favorable conditions and potential prospects have attracted a large number of talents studying in the United States to return home. It is difficult for the existing education system in the world to effectively solve this thorny dilemma in the short term, making the "shortage of talents" phenomenon a nightmare for the United States. This is the key to the Biden administration's push for the "Chip and Science Act" to gain support from both parties in the United States.
However, when the Chip and Science Act officially comes into effect, the international community is more concerned about whether this bill will be the beginning of semiconductor companies competing with each other to obtain these related subsidies. Whether the United States can use this to rebuild the semiconductor industry and restore its past. prosperity, and once again dominate the global semiconductor industry. Furthermore, what those involved in the semiconductor industry want to know is whether there is a more detailed allocation of the currently planned US$52 billion in subsidy funds? Compared with investment plans of tens or tens of billions of dollars and the relatively high operating costs in the United States, can a single subsidy create more efficiency or effectiveness? In particular, is the additional condition of prohibiting investment in mainland China within ten years too costly? Especially as global semiconductor demand may soften, is it necessary to give up China's huge market of US$350 billion in annual semiconductor imports?
is actually an extended layout of the plundering economy.
Looking back on the above, the United States is the birthplace of the global semiconductor industry. Especially before the 1980s, the United States was the leader of the global semiconductor industry. It can be said to be the leader. However, in the 1980s, under the trend of professional division of labor, with the booming development of Japanese semiconductor memory, American semiconductor manufacturers were unable to fight back. Although the United States and Japan were finally forced to sign a semiconductor agreement, the two countries began to create conflicts. The semiconductor industry suffers both sides, but the semiconductor industries of Taiwan and South Korea have reaped the benefits since the 1990s.After this century, under the effect of Moore's law (Moore's law), the number of transistors that can be accommodated on a semiconductor will double every two years, that is, its efficiency can be doubled at a speed , the investment funds required for the new generation of processes have increased significantly, making it impossible for some semiconductor manufacturers in the United States to continue to invest huge amounts of money, or it is more difficult to keep up with technological progress. For example, integrated component manufacturers (IDM) have been forced to give up keeping pace with the times and engage in advanced manufacturing process, turning into a fabless design company.
After the 1990s, as chip manufacturing capacity declined, the United States turned to rely on Taiwan, South Korea and other Asian regions for production and supply. In other words, in pursuing the spirit of "free trade" for a long time, the U.S. government has not only neglected to thoroughly review its industrial development environment, but has also put the cart before the horse and blindly criticized Asian countries and regions for adopting subsidies and incentives. Furthermore, from the perspective of industrial development, although the United States hopes to restore its past prosperity through policy subsidies or tax incentives through the passing of the "Chip and Science Act", it only relies on It is simply unrealistic and difficult to restore the dominance of U.S. semiconductor manufacturing with extremely limited subsidies and tax incentives.
On the other hand, although the Biden administration and members of Congress have emphasized the impact of this bill on national security, its purpose is not only to contain the development of mainland China's semiconductor industry, calling it the key to competition with China, but if analyzed from another angle It can be found that it is actually a strong "political" operation that "does more with one stone". It adopts the "Turnkey" model to require important international semiconductor manufacturers, including Taiwan, to invest in the United States, and at the same time, it takes into account overseas "talent absorption" opportunities. . That is to say, it provides many on-the-job-training opportunities through the diffusion of knowledge and talent exchange. In particular, the latter is a challenge that the United States’ own education and industrial systems have been unable to easily meet in recent years.
It can be seen from this that the "Chip and Science Act" promoted by the Biden administration and members of Congress is not only its most immediate industrial development strategy, but also a "wishful thinking" structure of the United States, and a "unilateral operation" of the United States. The strategy is an extended layout of the United States' predatory economy (Predatory Capitalism). Its ultimate goal is entirely to achieve the interests of the United States' own industrial development while suppressing external competition. If viewed from a macro perspective, in addition to being detrimental to the establishment of a healthy industrial ecological development system, it is also contrary to the spirit of free competition in capitalism.
After all, the development of any industry is not achieved overnight. Although different countries and regions and different industries have different development models, they all must adopt a more appropriate development strategy step by step and adapt to local conditions, so as to build a good industrial development environment and create a competitive environment. Conditional industrial ecosystem. As mentioned above, starting in the mid-1980s, the U.S. semiconductor industry first moved the packaging and testing of the back-end chip products to Asia, and then moved the manufacturing energy of the front-end chip products overseas starting in the 1990s, resulting in the overall decline of U.S. semiconductor manufacturing. The ecosystem is destroyed and ruined. In other words, the U.S. government and members of Congress hope to turn its semiconductor manufacturing industry into an advanced manufacturing base through the "Chip and Science Act." Unless a complete semiconductor manufacturing industry ecosystem is re-established, there will be no success.
(Text/Dai Zhaoyang Consultant of Taiwan Chamber of Commerce, Consultant of Modern Finance Foundation)
(This article was first published in Hong Kong's " Economic Herald " published on August 22, 2022, with a total of 3524 issues)
This article was published by Hong Kong's "Economic Herald" New media articles,
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