We know that China's soybean imports basically come from the United States, but recently, China has voluntarily cancelled a batch of 132,000 tons of soybean orders.
Why should we cancel it? Obviously we need to import soybeans from the United States. In fact, this move is a "smart game" of counting the birds with one stone.
China cancels 132,000 tons of soybean orders
301 investigation? China uses soybean orders to deter the United States
First of all, this is a deterrent against the United States considering launching a 301 investigation.
According to US media reports, Biden is discussing whether to take a new round of 301 investigation against us.
301 investigations are all familiar to us. This is a "unilateral trade protectionist" measure taken by the United States. It mainly sanctions our country’s products to protect the United States’ own interests. It is a self-interested clause that harms others.
301 actually violates WTO regulations
In the past few years, during the Trump administration, The United States liked to impose sanctions on China’s high-tech chips, 5G, etc. , and at this time, China will use soybeans and other weapons to counter sanctions, so that American soybean farmers will protest against the government and take the initiative to pressure us.
Why does the United States continue to want to conduct 301 investigations on China?
Because in the United States' view, although the Sino-US trade war is very fierce, China's exports to the United States have been increasing. The United States expects to reduce its dependence on China's manufacturing industry and reduce the trade deficit. It did not succeed .
For example, In the first 7 months of 2021, the total trade volume between China and the United States reached 2.62 trillion yuan.A year-on-year increase of 28.9%, of which China’s exports to the United States were US$1.96 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%.
The double-digit growth means that the United States has not only not gotten rid of its dependence on China's manufacturing industry, but this dependence has greatly deepened.
After thinking about it, the Biden administration thought of the 301 investigation. This trick has been tried and tested.
From Trump to Biden, the actions against China have never been reduced.
Of course, as we are often "sanctioned" by the United States, we already have adequate response and preparation measures.
Therefore, when the United States begins to consider conducting a 301 investigation against China, then we will cancel soybean orders in due course, conduct deterrence, and tell the Americans that if you conduct an anti-dumping investigation against us, then I will conduct a reciprocal counterattack and sanctions. .
Earlier, we said that this is killing birds with one stone, because there is another reason besides deterring the possible 301 investigation in the United States.
The lifeline of the United States is blocked
The reason is that the lifeline of the United States is blocked.
We know that the logistics of the United States in North America and other continents rely on air and sea transportation. Air transportation capacity is limited, so it is mainly by sea, that is, by container.
However, it is not easy to ship goods to the United States now.
For example, a few days ago, , the San Pedroro Bay in California, USA, experienced a record-breaking blockade, and the number of container ships waiting in line at the port reached a record 65.
There is a big congestion in San Pedroro Bay
21 of them can only drift at sea because there is no place for them to dock.
And this port, is the fifth largest port in the world,Goods are transported to important areas such as Los Angeles, where they are blocked, and the lifeline of the United States is equivalent to half blocked.
Therefore, even if the United States wants to import goods from other countries, it is likely to be blocked outside the US ports like these 21 ships.
In addition to port congestion, the Baltic Dry Bulk Index (BDI), which represents the shipping boom on behalf of , has also soared from 1111 points in January last year to the current 4233 points, a record high in 12 years.
The Baltic Dry Bulk Index rose sharply
The boom in the industry is high, which means that the supply of container ships is in short supply.
Someone may ask here, has such a developed manufacturing industry, why are there not enough containers?
In fact, the number of containers is enough, but , especially Chinese containers, are blocked in American ports after they are shipped to the United States.
However, due to poor epidemic control in the United States, port workers and labor are very scarce, resulting in low work efficiency. In addition, American products are mainly imported and exported less, so these containers from all over the world cannot be returned to their respective countries in a timely manner.
In addition to China, Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries have not effectively controlled the epidemic. The factory has been suspended, and many orders can only be fulfilled by Chinese factories, which greatly consumes China's inventory of containers and shipping capacity.
In this case, the cost of shipping is greatly increased. How high is
? Before the outbreak, the transportation cost of a container on the China-US route was about US$1,500.And now? It was $25,000, and the price skyrocketed 16 times.
So, if you are an American, will not pay you because the freight is too expensive now, even if you offer 10 times the shipping price before the epidemic.
Based on this consideration, China finally cancelled its soybean orders and moved to Brazil in South America.
The Fed printed big money, and the United States burst into buying Chinese goods.
The cause of shipping congestion, in addition to the previous epidemic, the main reason for is that the Fed printed too many dollar bills.
However, the banknotes printed by the Federal Reserve are worthless and must eventually be exchanged for commodities and goods. And so many countries in the world are capable of digesting so many US banknotes, only China . So Americans are crazy to buy goods from China, which is also a way to export inflation.
The Fed prints money and buys Chinese goods
What we have to be wary of is that shipping companies have benefited from the surge in freight rates. For example, , the popular A-share COSCO, has increased by more than five times in one year. , The company even stated that this year’s net profit has greatly increased dozens of times compared with last year.
However, under the pattern of global integration, other small and medium-sized enterprises are facing the dilemma of rising costs. The higher the freight, the less profitable it is.
For example, the CEO of a company in Shenzhen said that the freight for one container of goods is RMB 150,000 to 200,000. In the past, it only cost RMB 30,000 to 50,000, and most of the company's profits were invested in the freight.
Therefore, the major blockage of American ports has affected the transportation of goods in the United States and blocked the lifeline of the United States, but this is actually not a good thing worthy of a joke. On the contrary, it affects China. affects the global industry. The big bad thing about the chain.
The solution is actually to rely on China.
Because China is the main producer of containers in the world, 96% of the world’s dry cargo containers and 100% of reefer containers are made in China,
China is producing at full capacity Container
Therefore, in order to cope with the dilemma of "a box is hard to find", Chinese container manufacturers are working overtime to produce containers . However, due to excessive demand, coupled with the overseas epidemic, the containers shipped out cannot be returned. The current situation will continue for some time.
At such a critical moment, we only want to help our companies reduce shipping costs through our strong manufacturing industry, and even smooth the cost of global shipping. However, if the United States is risking the world’s worst at this time, Then China will definitely take necessary countermeasures.
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[Sakura Wolf Finance] Explore the truth behind the hot spot,Welcome to forward, like, and comment. The source of the picture comes from the network, invaded and deleted.
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