At the same time, Biden said in his victory speech in Wilmington, Delaware last Saturday (November 7): "I will spare no effort, spare no effort, and spare no effort to reverse this pandemic." Biden On Monday, we began to arrange a 12-member new crown virus task force that will transform his new crown pneumonia epidemic prevention plan into an "action blueprint" "built on the foundation of science."
Why is the new wave of epidemic rebound in the United States so severe? What major adjustments will Biden's epidemic prevention plan make? Has the Trump administration declared that the United States will withdraw from the World Health Organization (WHO) has a turnaround after the election? With these questions in mind, the CBN reporter interviewed Huang Yanzhong, a senior researcher in global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, Professor of the School of Diplomacy and International Relations at Seton Hall University and director of the Center for Global Health Issues.
Will the U.S. medical system collapse? Z11z
First Financial: The new wave of epidemics in the U.S. is far more serious than this spring and summer. Why is there such a severe rebound?
Huang Yanzhong: I think this is due to the following reasons: First, although the United States has so far introduced some social distancing measures, such as some states requiring people to wear masks, in fact it has not fundamentally cut off the transmission chain. Therefore, without the implementation of very strict isolation measures or epidemic prevention measures, coupled with the existence of uninfected people, the virus has been spreading and will continue to spread. Second, without fundamentally cutting off the transmission chain, the United States has reopened one after another since August and September. As far as I know, some universities, middle schools and elementary schools also allow students to go back to class, and the business sector has also restarted, all of which increase the risk of virus transmission. Third, there will be many election activities before the November election in the United States, which also increases the probability of exposure and the possibility of infection.
CBN: How will the trend of the US epidemic in the next few weeks or winter develop? Will the US government introduce corresponding anti-epidemic measures?
Huang Yanzhong: The problem now is that it is in the period of presidential change, (the US government will introduce epidemic prevention measures) the possibility is not very high. On the other hand, now entering the autumn and winter seasons, as the temperature drops, more people will choose to spend more time indoors, and the distance of social distancing is shortened, which increases the possibility of contact and infection. Under such circumstances, many public health experts and I believe that the epidemic will further escalate.
Now, the number of new cases in a single day in the United States has exceeded 100,000. From last Thursday to Saturday, the number of new cases reported daily exceeded 120,000, and the number of daily deaths exceeded 1,000 for four consecutive days. According to the project of the University of Washington Institute of Health Measurement and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle, the epidemic in the United States will continue to escalate, probably until mid-January or even late January next year, almost when Biden takes office (peak).
First Financial: If the epidemic continues to escalate, will there be a collapse of the medical system and a run on medical resources?
Huang Yanzhong: This possibility exists, especially if the epidemic continues to escalate and the number of critically ill patients increases, the pressure on the medical system will increase. In other words, with the spread of the epidemic, the number of infected people increases. This possibility exists.
But from another aspect, this possibility is not too great. First, even in March and April this year, when medical staff were at a loss, there was no run on resources. So far, they are more experienced and will be more prepared to deal with this wave of epidemics. Second, according to research, the proportion of new coronary pneumonia transforming into severe illness and then death is decreasing. A study by the New York University School of Medicine and the hospital system found that the mortality rate of inpatients has dropped from more than 25% in March to the current 6% to 7%, a significant reduction. This indicates that it is likely that the toxicity of the new coronavirus is weakening in the process of spreading, and the increasing number of asymptomatic infections may also be the reason. From this perspective, I think unless the number of critically ill patients rises sharply,The possibility of a run on treatment resources is unlikely.
The main challenge of the Biden government's anti-epidemic plan
CBN: Will there be major adjustments to Biden's epidemic prevention strategy?
Huang Yanzhong: Basically all public health experts believe that the Biden administration will make major adjustments to the epidemic prevention policy. According to reports, he will introduce a series of measures. For example, on Monday announced the establishment of a working group to deal with the new crown pneumonia virus. The former US Department of Health Director Vivek Murthy, who was previously dismissed by President Trump, and the former US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Kessler (David Kessler) co-chairs. Biden also proposed to make wearing a mask a mandatory measure, because wearing a mask is still a suggested behavior. Biden’s government communication strategy during the epidemic will also change. He said that he will more respect the opinions of science and experts, change the previous practice of communication between politicians and the public, and push experts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and FDA. To the front desk. Biden also mentioned that he will be more active in promoting new coronary pneumonia virus testing and strive for free testing. In addition, Biden wants to expand the nationwide monitoring system, and even said that the CDC will establish a 24-hour data panel to track hospital admissions related to the new crown pneumonia virus. He also hopes that the CDC will formulate and establish a clearer nationwide guidelines for containment of the virus, and scientifically regulate the opening of schools and social gatherings. These contents of
are not completely new, because other countries have already done so, but for the United States, due to the laissez-faire control of the epidemic, this may be a different challenge.
CBN: What are the main challenges of the Biden administration in organizing and implementing its anti-epidemic plan?
Huang Yanzhong: There is already a saying, time is not on his side, "time is not on his side." But if the epidemic really develops to a very serious point when he takes over, he may be more convincing to implement more stringent measures and it will be easier to persuade opposition. At the same time, the U.S. Congressional election situation is not fully understood, but it seems likely that the Republicans will still control the Senate. The question here is how far he can get the cooperation of the Republicans, and he will need to proceed with his plan by then. Negotiation and bargaining.
On the other hand, to what extent will these measures be coordinated by the American people, because in fact, some Americans have more thoughts of "life will continue", thinking that they cannot be locked down because of the epidemic and have nothing at home. dry. Moreover, since the outbreak of the epidemic in the United States, seven or eight months have passed, and the American people have become tired of this blockade. If the blockade is to be re-blocked by then, it may be very difficult to get the cooperation of the American people.
China Business News: Are epidemic control and economic development opposed to each other? If we want to control the epidemic, is it inevitable to implement an economic blockade?
Huang Yanzhong: I personally think that we should not say that the relationship between the two is opposite, but should talk about how to find a dynamic balance between the two. Among Biden's current policy priorities, one is to respond to the epidemic, and the other is to promote economic recovery. If epidemic prevention and economic development are opposed, the two cannot be achieved at the same time. Judging from Biden's current measures, he did not mention the use of more radical measures such as re-implementing the blockade, otherwise the economy will only worsen. From the perspective of the American people, in the polls, many people do not feel that they have suffered too much economic loss since the epidemic. I think this may be related to a series of relief measures by the federal government.
Therefore, on the one hand, there is a need to find a balance between the two; on the other hand, countries like South Korea have actually not caused much harm to the economy while the epidemic is under control. Therefore, to control the epidemic, the implementation of an economic blockade is not necessarily inevitable.
First Financial: In July this year, the United States officially triggered the process of withdrawing from the World Health Organization (WHO). Now, is there any room for recovery in this matter? What does this mean for the United States?
Huang Yanzhong: Yes, Biden has made it clear that he wants to return to the WHO. There is basically no suspense. Although the Trump administration announced its withdrawal, the withdrawal process has not been completed (Note: According to the one-year notice period, the Trump administrationThe government’s withdrawal decision will not take effect until July 6, 2021). It can be predicted that if the United States returns to the WHO, the United States will play a role in the reform of the WHO, such as the financing mechanism of the WHO and how the budget should be deployed.
