Recently, the situation in the world has been changing rapidly. The United States and its allies are also in constant trouble, and the "backyard" is frequently on fire.
Trump is facing jail time, Sunak 's position as Prime Minister is in jeopardy, the Kishida government is experiencing constant scandals, Germany's foreign policy is also swinging back and forth, and internal strife is escalating.
Political turmoil and economic depression have become common problems in most Western countries. Although its "household affairs" are in a mess, the United States is still trying to win over a group of allies to form an "encirclement circle" against China.
In order to pass on domestic conflicts, they have unanimously focused on China. Sadly, they have never realized that only by cooperating with China can they get out of the quagmire, and decoupling and confrontation will only lose the opportunity to break the situation under internal and external difficulties.
The United States and its allies
1. Infighting is intensifying, inflation is high, and divisions in the United States are intensifying
A few days ago, the U.S. House of Representatives investigation team completed the collection of evidence on the Capitol Hill riots and formally determined that Trump was criminally responsible. If the Department of Justice seriously pursues the investigation, Trump may face jail time.
This may be the first time in the history of the United States that a former president has been criminally prosecuted. If the Biden administration really dares to set this precedent, the " donkey-elephant dispute " will only intensify, and perhaps they will have to counterattack and argue with each other every few years.
The United States will also intensify divisions in the ongoing political internal strife. For Biden , although it is a good thing to lose a strong competitor, internal divisions will make it more difficult for the Biden administration to govern in the next two years.
Even Biden himself believes that the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are hostile to each other and that the country has become too divided. He hopes that the two parties can reconcile and unite.
U.S. President Biden
At this point, Trump holds the same view, bluntly saying that the internal fighting between the two parties is causing the United States to "die from the inside." In the context of political division, the prospects for the U.S. economy are also very worrying, and may even fall into a major collapse.
data shows that the inflation rate in the United States continues to soar, but wages have fallen for 20 consecutive months. The increase in the cost of living has also triggered a series of social problems.
Economists generally believe that with continued interest rate hikes , there is a 70% chance that the U.S. economy will fall into recession, and the chaos of "the United States is sick and the world is taking medicine" will continue to unfold.
The previous Sino-US Bali talks were originally a turning point in revitalizing the world economy, but a series of subsequent negative actions by the United States put Sino-US relations into a deadlock again.
Sino-US talks
2. Protests are coming one after another, Sunak is "forced into the palace", Johnson may return to the position of prime minister
Unlike the internal friction between parties in the United States, the "contradiction between the government and the people" in the UK is intensifying. Recently, public systems such as transportation, medical care, postal services, and education in the UK have collectively launched a wave of strikes, which has had a serious impact on social production and life.
Faced with this historic large-scale strike wave, Prime Minister Sunak remained unmoved and refused the salary increase demands of various departments. Many protesters shouted the slogan "Request Sunak to step down and hold an early election."
With inflation so high, Sunak refused to negotiate, using the excuse of lowering inflation to squeeze public spending and people's income, seriously exacerbating social dissatisfaction, which not only did not help economic recovery , but also further aggravated public dissatisfaction.
The Labor Party continued to put pressure on Northern Ireland and Scotland also took the opportunity to seek a referendum. Faced with challenges from many parties, Sunak was on pins and needles as prime minister.
Before British Prime Minister Sunak took office, Sunak promised the people to bring a "new era of optimism." However, judging from the performance of the past two months, Britain's future is not only not optimistic, but even worse.
At present, the support rate of the Conservative Party is far lower than that of the Labor Party, and Sunak is also facing the dilemma of being "forced into the palace." In this context, former British Culture Secretary Dorris predicted that "before Christmas next year, Johnson is expected to return to No. 10 Downing Street and replace Sunak as prime minister again."
Sunak's position as Prime Minister is in jeopardy. However, under such circumstances, Sunak does not want to improve people's livelihood, but instead hypes up the "China threat". First he follows the United States in imposing sanctions on Chinese companies, and then he declares that the "golden era" between China and the UK is over.
Such a big word game shows that the "two-sided" characteristics of Sunak's China policy are exactly the same as those of the United States, and he attempts to "eat China's rice and smash China's bowl." In this context, Sino-British relations are facing more complex tests.
Former British Prime Minister Johnson
3. The cabinet collapsed, many important officials resigned, and a "big earthquake" occurred in Japanese politics
As an ally that aligns with the United States in everything, Japan's life is not easy, and in terms of its attitude towards China, the Kishida government is even worse than the United States.
As the support rate of the Kishida government has dropped to 25%, a "big earthquake" has occurred in Japanese politics. Within two months, four cabinet officials have resigned. Many of them have been exposed to political stains and have been widely criticized by the opposition parties.
It is reported that due to pressure from all parties, Kishida has begun to consider dissolving the House of Representatives and holding an election, and the current Foreign Minister Lin Fang is being regarded as a strong contender to be the next prime minister.
The most important reason that led to the disintegration of the Kishida government was economic problems. In the context of global inflation, Japan's prices have soared and the economy continues to shrink. Nearly 70% of companies believe that the government needs to bear primary responsibility for this.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida
As the Bank of Japan has always maintained loose monetary policy , the yen has depreciated by more than 30%, and trade deficits have occurred for 16 consecutive months , exacerbating the domestic production and cost of living crisis. Affected by the slowdown in exports, the Japanese economy will most likely fall into recession next year.
As Japan's fiscal deficit continues to expand, Kishida has increased the defense budget to 6.8 trillion yen, a record high. In order to supplement military spending, Kishida plans to increase corporate income tax and personal income tax to make up for the gap in the fiscal deficit.
In other words, The Japanese people have to pay for the authorities' "expanded defense expenditures" under increasing pressure to survive. In this regard, more than 70% of the people oppose replenishing military expenditures out of their own pockets.
In fact, Kishida has already stated that he will dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a new election, which shows that he has psychological expectations for his resignation, but even so, he still seeks to break through . It can be seen that Japan has not reflected on its history. Even if the situation changes, I am afraid that it will continue its tough policy against China and continue to cooperate with the United States in the East China Sea and Taiwan Strait areas.
Bank of Japan
4. "Traffic light" governments constrain each other, and Germany's three major associations call for pragmatism towards China
In addition to Japan, even the EU that is pursuing strategic independence still cannot get rid of the shackles of the so-called "political correctness".
After German Chancellor Scholz visited China, Sino-European relations gradually thawed, but changes occurred within Germany. The Scholz government, which originally refused to "decouple" from China, has to re-examine its China policy and is likely to tighten its approach to China.
Under the coercion of the United States, Germany not only severed its energy cooperation relationship with Russia, but also made repeated jumps in its China policy, seriously damaging the interests of the German business community and leading to the rise of anti-government movements.
Especially regarding China policy, there are many contradictions within the Scholz government. Among them, the biggest China hawk is Foreign Minister Berberk . Since Germany is a "traffic light" government, even though Scholz advocated being pragmatic towards China, the pro-American Green Party still greatly influenced the formulation of China strategy.
German Chancellor Scholz
China's attitude towards Germany is consistent. However, the German government does not have a unified policy towards China. Among the current coalition governments, only the Social Democratic Party led by Scholz maintains goodwill towards China. In order to retain his position as prime minister, I am afraid Scholz will have to make compromises.
Fortunately, the German economic community still maintains a rational understanding of China. The three major economic associations simultaneously spoke out, calling on the authorities to adopt a pragmatic approach to China, maintain the positive results of Scholz's previous visit to China, and not change the Sino-German friendly cooperation strategy.
Germany, which has lost Russian energy, can no longer bear the cost of losing the Chinese market. Between national interests and "political correctness," the German people and companies know very well which is more important. The question is, do those politicians who are obsessed with power games understand this truth?
Sadly, people like Bell Burke are pretending to be confused. In their view, personal status is higher than national interests. Under the obstruction of these politicians, China-Germany friendly cooperation is also facing severe challenges.
China-Europe freight trains
5. Western scholars remind: Don’t decouple from China, let alone go head-to-head with China
Western countries are generally troubled by internal and external troubles, and they are not safe, but they still find fault with China and cut off the road to cooperation. This shows that under the new Cold War launched by the United States, the ideas of camp confrontation and zero-sum game have profoundly eroded Western politicians’ understanding of China.
Of course, there are many knowledgeable people in the West who dare to stand up and tell the truth. Canadian scholar Price and American scholar Chomsky jointly wrote an article to advise Western countries not to decouple from China, let alone seek military confrontation.
They believe that in the face of China's rise, engaging in camp confrontation and military high-pressure is not a good strategy. It will only provoke conflicts. In the end, everyone will lose, and the United States will only enjoy the fruits of the war.
From a factual point of view, this view has certain reference significance for Western countries. However, many countries still cannot see this clearly and are willing to serve as the "anti-China pawn" of the United States. This stance towards China is extremely naive and narrow-minded.
American hegemony
From the perspective of historical development trajectory, China's rise is completely positive and positive. It is not only the ballast stone for world economic growth, but also a staunch defender of world peace and stability.
In today's political turmoil and worrying economic situation in various countries, countries should put aside their prejudices and actively establish ties with China, instead of superstitiously the law of the jungle and zero-sum games. This will only build barriers and fall into the "Cold War Trap" of the United States.
