Recently, US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said that the United States assessed that the Russian military’s combat strength in Ukraine has greatly increased, including newly mobilized soldiers and mercenaries . The United States even believes that the influence of Russia's famous Wagner mercenaries is growing. In some areas with fierce fighting, such as Bakhmut, Wagner's level is even higher than that of the Russian army, and the latter has to accept the command of the former.
John Kirby said that according to US assessments, the number of Russian combat troops in Ukraine now reaches 360,000, including 40,000 Wagner mercenaries, 20,000 contract soldiers and 300,000 newly mobilized soldiers, which is more than twice the 150,000 Russian troops at the beginning of the war. Recently Putin also reiterated at a military conference that he will continue to advance until he achieves his military goals in Ukraine. The actual 360,000 Russian troops do not have a numerical advantage, because the Ukrainian army has at least 800,000 to 1 million.
The United States said that they have been tracking the actions of Wagner mercenaries in Ukraine recently. They found that there are a total of 50,000 Wagner mercenaries, 40,000 of whom are fighting in Bakhmut, Ukraine, and the vast majority of them are prisoners recruited in prisons since September. US media reported that North Korea recently shipped a batch of new weapons to Russia - rockets and missiles , and those who paid for this batch of weapons were Wagner mercenaries. The United States is worried that Wagner will obtain more weapons in the future. Wagner mercenaries denied the US accusations.
More importantly, Wagner began to gain greater command authority. John Kirby said Wagner had taken over some Russian operations in the Bakhmut region. He said: "In some cases, Russian officers actually obeyed Wagner's command. This means that it is clear that Wagner is becoming a competitor of the Russian military and other services." In recent weeks, Wagner has focused on trying to capture the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, an operation that has triggered some of the bloodiest fighting of the war but has so far failed to achieve a long-awaited victory.
Ukraine’s former national security adviser Alexander Daniliuk also admitted that Wagner was the main force in Bachmut’s battle. He said: "There were a lot of Wagner prisoner mercenaries on the front lines. These people had little choice and were sent out to attack and were killed in large numbers." John Kirby said that in the past month, about 1,000 Wagner soldiers were killed in battle, and 900 were prisoners. Throughout the war, Wagner's successful operations in the Lugansk area stood in stark contrast to the numerous setbacks suffered by Russian regular forces.
In order to ensure that Bakhmut is not lost, Ukraine has concentrated the eight most elite brigades of the Ukrainian army here, including the 60th and 71st Infantry Brigades, the 24th, 57th and 58th Mechanized Brigades, the 4th Tank Brigade, the 46th Air Mobile Brigade, and the 128th Mountain Brigade. Each brigade may have 3,000 soldiers, a hundred or more armored vehicles as well as artillery and drones . During the fierce fighting, Bahmut's trenches changed hands several times a day, and hand-to-hand combat often occurred.
The Russian side believes that the battle in Bakhmut attracted a large number of Ukrainian troops. But even Wagner's boss Prigozhin admitted that Wagner fighters must advance meter by meter in Bakhmut and occupy every building with fighting. The Russian side said that Wagner mercenaries were occupying those suburbs around Bahmut, allowing them to squeeze the city with a pincer offensive to cut off the enemy's supply routes.
Compared with ordinary armies, mercenaries who use prisoners are indeed more ferocious in combat. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that Wagner came to Bachmut to fight a tough battle. However, it is not a normal phenomenon for any mercenary organization to override or even command the regular army. Originally, Wagner's mercenaries were an integral part of Russia's foreign intervention force. Now Western media speculates that Wagner has wanted to move from behind the scenes to the front to gain more political capital. If Wagner wins in Bakhmut, more Russian hawks will support the group.
