Author of this article: Cuckoo
This article only represents the author's views and does not represent the position of this account
Zelensky put forward ten proposals for peaceful negotiations, and Ukraine began to show a pragmatic attitude, which is a strong contrast to the previous attitude of refusing to negotiate. Is peace really coming? What variables make Ukraine change its attitude? Will $330 billion be carried to the negotiating table? How will Russia face the huge amount of money seized by the West?
On November 15, Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on social media, proposed the latest "peace plan" of Ukraine, , with a total of 10 proposals. The following are:
1, ensure nuclear security; 2. Ensure food security; 3. Ensure energy security; 4. Release all captured personnel and let the expelled people go home; 5. Implement the " United Nations Charter " and restore Ukraine's territorial integrity and world order; 6. Russia withdrew its troops and stopped hostilities; 7. Rebuild justice; 8. Oppose ecological extinction; 9. Prevent the escalation of the situation; 10. Announce the end of the war.
Looking back at the "five articles" mentioned by Zelensky before, namely, "restore Ukraine's territorial sovereignty integrity, demand that Russia respect the UN Charter, compensate Ukraine for all war losses, punish all Russian war criminals, and never launch any aggression against Ukraine." In contrast, it is obvious that this "ten articles" is quite constructive, showing Ukraine's unprecedented since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Although Russia and Ukraine have major conflicts of interest in many aspects, the two sides seem to have room for negotiation. After all, Russia has repeatedly stated that they are willing to negotiate with Ukraine.
If you carefully analyze these ten of Zelensky's points, you will find that these ten points have become more pragmatic than the previous five points. The first three items involve major security issues. We have repeatedly emphasized in our previous programs that has security interests first, and then there is a basis for economic development . Regarding the first article "ensure nuclear security", at the beginning of this year, the five permanent members of the United Nations issued a joint statement, in which the statement mentioned: Avoiding wars between nuclear weapons and reducing strategic risks is the primary responsibility... nuclear war cannot win or fight. The consensus statement between the Five Constant Persons is naturally more credible. There are also various strategic constraints between major countries, and other small nuclear powers will never dare to act rashly due to their limited strength. However, what about NATO , which has a military decision-making mechanism? In some previous programs, we have also explained this risk from various angles, and will not be discussed in today's program. In short, no matter how external information argues that nuclear risks come from NATO or Russia, how can completely eliminate nuclear risks around Ukraine is indeed an important issue that needs to be considered. Food security and energy security naturally needless to say, they all belong to the category of security interests and are the primary consideration for areas that have experienced war.
No need to talk about the fifth, sixth, seventh and eight here, it is basically an extension of security interests. Ukraine naturally hopes to restore its borders, and here naturally involves what to do with the four prefectures in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine naturally does not recognize the "referendum to Russia" in the four regions, and Russia has finalized the four regions legally. Ukraine hopes to restore all territory, and Russia hopes to move towards the new Minsk Agreement . There must be differences between the two sides, but this difference is also a bargaining chip for negotiations. And Russia's retreat from Khlsong means that everything is not impossible to negotiate, it means that the bargaining chips are loose and can be placed on the negotiating table.
And the most critical thing for the current situation is the nine and ten. That is, "prevent the escalation of the situation and declare the end of the war" . In the program at the end of October, we talked about the possibility of "Russia and Ukraine brakes" many times. In this process, there were many doubts by friends who supported Russia and Ukraine.Friends who support Ukraine generally believe that Zelensky has refused negotiations many times, and Ukraine will not tolerate the loss of territory. As long as Russia does not return its territory, Ukraine will not be able to negotiate; friends who support Russia believe that Russia has taken down the four eastern parts of Ukraine and cannot be spit out with Russia's "character". At the same time, nuclear risks are spreading on the battlefield. NATO and Russia have successively conducted nuclear drills, and the United States has continued to increase its military aid and even increased its troops in , Romania, and so on.
However, we have long analyzed that the strategic balance between major forces is actually being reached "like a tightrope". Zelensky, who once said that he would never know how to negotiate, has recently proposed "five points" or even more pragmatic "ten points". Of course, the risk is still there. The closer the peace talks, the greater the potential risk is. After all, if there is no risk or the risk cannot be caused to the other party, how can we occupy a favorable position in the negotiation? Even in order to fight, it is possible for Russia and Ukraine to fight another big battle on the tactical level, and this may be only depend on the negotiation needs of both sides at the moment. In the previous program, the missile incident in Poland also has the same truth. Of course, since the risks exist, they cannot be ignored. All parties should still be vigilant about nuclear risks in the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine, especially the United States should take good care of the guns in their hands. Once NATO fires, the situation will uncontrollable.
Many ways of analyzing the ten points raised about Ukraine, and they are also concerned about one issue. Can Russia accept it? Regarding this issue, let’s look at Russia from another perspective. Rather than saying whether Russia can accept the peace talks, it is better to say whether the two sides can reach a peace talks. . The peace talks between the two sides naturally depend on the bargaining chips in their hands. This is not essentially whether Russia agrees to Ukraine's "one-time deal".
Today we will talk about one of the "big chips" between Russia and Ukraine, that is, the West freezes Russia's 330 billion US dollars. In fact, this is one of the most critical chips in the current peace talks stage. As for other territorial and military bargaining chips, the Russian-Ukraine war has been fighting for so long, and it is actually not difficult to analyze. You can consider it yourself first.
Russia's current frozen assets are about or no less than 330 billion US dollars of huge . The information comes from the U.S. Department of Justice's statement at the end of June that "the United States and its allies have frozen more than $30 billion in assets of Russian oligarchs and about $300 billion in assets of Russian Central Bank ." We have talked about in previous episodes that the United States wants to launch the "Ukrainian version of the New Marshall Plan" in Europe through Germany. Zelensky has long given various countries a "vaccine" and has long been promoted in Western countries that , Ukraine reconstruction requires US$750 billion. This is also reflected in several reports of the German Marshall Foundation in the United States. The head of the German Marshall Foundation led the team to compile the plan for the new Marshall Plan . Among them, Ukraine's reconstruction budget involves Russia's frozen assets.
Therefore, everyone understands why on November 14th, the United Nations General Assembly held an emergency special meeting on the issue of Ukraine, and under huge differences, UN General Assembly passed a resolution to promote Russia to carry out war compensation for Ukraine. In fact, Russia's money is in the hands of the West, and regarding Ukraine's reconstruction, the Russian assets needed in the New Marshall Plan are about 300 billion US dollars. However, US Treasury Secretary Yellen has also specifically commented on whether the frozen Russian assets can be confiscated. Therefore, this UN General Assembly emergency meeting is beginning to seek the legality of disposing of this part of Russian assets. Of course, this meeting alone is definitely not enough. In the future, , Western countries will inevitably continue to seek more ways to "legitimately dispose of" Russia's assets. And this will also be a headache for Russia. After all, the money is frozen in the financial system dominated by the United States, which is a huge amount of funds.
You can actually see many questions about this huge sum of money.Friends who know some finance will understand that the $30 billion assets mainly correspond to physical assets , and the $300 billion of the Russian Central Bank should mainly correspond to financial assets, such as foreign exchange deposits , national bonds, stocks , etc. The problem is not limited to this. Other assets derived from financial assets will also be affected, and it will even affect Russian companies or other countries' enterprises or institutions that have business relations with Russia, including debt risks. Of course, this will not be an emergency . After Russia was frozen and financial trade blocked, it made some financial response preparations. What really hurts the 330 billion US dollars is the physical assets corresponding to the 30 billion US dollars. The amount of financial assets and the corresponding risks are indeed huge, but they are not irresponsible. Of course, this requires "external forces" support, and requires the injection of financial currencies with certain strength to supplement its liquidity gap. This is what the Russian Central Bank should calculate.
So will Russia make substantial concessions to the frozen huge sums? Based on the above, it was originally frozen and the West would not thaw easily. There was a last resort. Although this huge sum of money was heavy, it could still be used as a bargaining chip for peace talks. Of course, there will inevitably be various tractions in the process of peace talks, and Russia will also try its best to win its own interests. However, both parties to the peace talks will definitely pay various exchange chips, and sufficient chips will inevitably correspond to a large enough price. Next, we can continue to observe the further development of the peace talks, especially about the more than 300 billion US dollars. How much will Russia pay for the peace talks in the end.
