Author of this article: Cuckoo
This article only represents the author's views and does not represent the position of this account
The US midterm elections have entered the final sprint stage, and the competition between the two parties is in full swing. Trump and Biden are still eye-catching. Trump confidently declared that "I'm coming back soon", while current US President Biden said that if he fails, he may be impeached. Biden's lack of confidence reveals that the Democratic Party does face the risk of election situations, and no matter who falls in the midterm elections, the United States will face major changes.
The U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 8, when U.S. House of Representatives all 435 seats and 35 seats in the Senate will be re-elected, and 36 states will hold governoral elections. The midterm election is facing the final sprint, and various American factions have launched fierce confrontation. Whether it is , Republicans, , or Democrats, they are all trying their best to show their magical powers. Let’s first conduct in-depth observations on the campaign pattern of the two houses of the Congress in the midterm elections and analyze the highlights.
is now in the U.S. House of Representatives, which is the situation before the midterm elections. The U.S. Democrats have 8 more seats than the Republicans, that is, 220:212, and there are 3 other vacant seats. Therefore, many statements say that the Republicans can win in the House of Representatives as long as they have 5 more seats than before. However, this analysis is very basic. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be re-elected, and the goal of both parties will be to acquire 218 or more seats. It should also be noted that since the runoff dates of Georgia and Louisiana are after the universal suffrage, the results of the midterm elections may not be announced on November 8. However, if one party gains an absolute advantage, the House pattern may still be determined soon after the election. According to 270towin statistics, as of October 31, Democrats will win 202 seats in the House midterm elections, Republicans will win 223 seats, and the remaining 10 are swing state . And 218 seats are already the decisive number. Obviously, the Republican Party is in a strong momentum at the moment. If the Democrats want to win in the House of Representatives, it is unlikely to make a comeback without a surprise move.
Then we look to the Senate. There are 100 seats in the Senate. Before the election, the pattern is that the Republican Party has 50 seats, the Democratic Party has 48 seats, and the other two independent seats are also owned by the Democratic Party. 35 seats were re-elected in the midterm elections. Among these 35 seats, 21 were originally Republican and 14 were originally Democratic. In other words, if the Republican Party wants to change the situation in the Senate, it needs to control at least 22 seats out of the 35 seats re-elected, while the Democratic Party only needs to maintain 14 seats.
According to 270towin statistics, as of October 31, both the Democrats and Republicans will win 49 seats in the Senate midterm elections, with the remaining 2 being swing states. Then the Democrats only need to win one more seat to continue to control the Senate, while the Republicans need to win two seats.
Many analyses are also judged from 270towin, but the suspense is not that simple. According to the latest statistics of the Cook political report on November 4, there are currently 8 "iron blue" in 35 constituencies and 14 "iron red". Except for these 22 constituencies, there are actually variables to varying degrees. That is to say, the Democrats will have to win 6 seats in the remaining 13 constituencies, while the Republicans will need 8 seats. Currently, among the 13 constituencies that decide the outcome, there is likely to be one Democratic voter, two possible, and three of the four swing constituencies tend to be Democratic; for the Republican Party, there are three most likely and possible, and one of the swing constituencies tends to be Republican. It can be seen that the current variables are still very large, and each of these 13 constituencies does not rule out the possibility of "turning over", but it is just the size of the possibility. Obviously, it is the key to the two parties fighting for the final sprint.
, and it is precisely because the suspense is not that small, that is the reason for the fierce competition between the first two parties. Unlike some analyses, it may be that in those two swing states, both parties only need to fight in those two places, and other regions will not be so fierce. It is precisely because there are still many things to strive for and consolidate that economic issues may actually be the most important factor in determining the midterm elections, and it is likely to sow seeds for the "reversal" of some states.
The continued high inflation in the United States obviously makes it difficult for Biden's Democratic government to handle, and therefore the Democratic Party has to find some excuses. After all, it is too late to reverse the economy in the remaining days. White House claims that the current record-breaking inflation in the United States is a "global issue" and the responsibility is blamed on the "bad international situation". At the same time, it also added various domestic problems in the United States caused by the causes of the COVID-19 epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Obviously, this is not a good idea. At the same time, the Democratic Party "finally" spreads its care for minorities to the Asian group. As the midterm election approaches, the Democratic Party has begun to win support from Asian groups such as Chinese, changing the neglect of Asian groups in previous years. It’s true that I really touched some Asian groups that have been neglected for a long time, at least as reported by the American media. However, the Republican Party is not to be outdone. Faced with such an important opportunity to change the congressional landscape, the Republican Party has done the same job.
It is precisely because economic problems are likely to be a potential "fatal" factor for the Democratic Party. What the Republicans are watching the most closely is the most acute high inflation problem in the United States. According to statistics, about 20% of the campaign advertisements posted by the Republican Party are related to this. At the same time, the Republican Party has also launched high-intensity attacks on other Democratic failures and other policies. Even Republican female congressman Taylor Green said that if the Republican Party wins the election, it will not give Ukraine a penny. Interestingly, this slogan is surprisingly effective and has been widely recognized by American voters.
Because of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in the case of high inflation and shortage of money everywhere in the United States, the Biden administration has to spend a lot of money to aid Ukraine, not only to use American taxpayers’ money to serve things outside the United States, but both sides seem to be fighting occasionally in "big wars", and more often the two sides are more like "check in and go to work", and many fronts are often "fighting", which makes American voters deeply doubt this war. Many American voters have repeatedly complained about military aid, believing that this is completely wasting money. If you get this money in the United States, it will help many American families to overcome difficulties. What is more noticeable is the performance of former President Trump at present, the number one "spiritual pillar" in the Republican Party. Trump has held 30 campaign rallies in 17 states, and has also participated in dozens of online rallies and more than 50 candidate fundraising events. According to a report by Reuters on November 3, three advisers to the Trump campaign said that Trump will announce his participation in the 2024 U.S. presidential election before Thanksgiving in November. Compared to Biden's complaints that "if he fails, he may be impeached", Trump is trying his best to build momentum for the Republican "congressional battle."
In short, the US midterm election that is about to begin will determine the "quality" of Congress, one of the highest power organs in the United States, and therefore determine where the United States will go in the next stage. But no matter which side can win, they will face the same problem, that is, how to solve the current headache-inflation and the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States. Now that the domestic social differences in the United States are serious, how can we make up for these splits and shift our attention from endless competition to economic development will also test the governance capabilities of the US ruling team in the future.
However, in front of us, no matter who wins and who loses, there are good shows. The Republican Party controls both houses of Congress. Not only will Trump appear more, but the direction of the United States will also undergo major changes. Once the Republican Party fails, I am afraid that this time the surging supporters will be even more amazing. Trump's supporters pay extra attention to the midterm election, "devoting countless efforts", and even patrolling the ballot box with full arms and live ammunition. In the face of the midterm elections, will some Americans tolerate failure this time? The major changes in the United States are about to officially kick off the midterm elections.
