When the Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced on October 16 that the first echelon of the Russian army of the Belarus-Russian joint force had arrived at the Belarusian , everyone believed that Russia might open up a second front to attack Kiev . After all, from the Ukraine border to Kiev is less than 100 kilometers, and passing through the open water Dnieper River, Kiev is in a position that is easy to attack and difficult to defend.
But combined with a series of recent trends, it shows that Russia's direction may not be in Kiev at all, but Lviv on the border between Ukraine and Poland . Russia plans to solve it once and for all!
All signs indicate that the Russian army's target may be Lviv
Starting from the 10th, Serbia , India, the United States, Canada, Italy, Denmark, Poland, five Central Asian countries, and many other countries including China have issued announcements urging their citizens to evacuate Ukraine as soon as possible. It seems understandable. After all, starting from October 10th, because Crimea Bridge was attacked, the Russian army's strike on key targets of Ukraine has entered the fifth day.
On October 14, the istories.media website reported that a notice appeared on the receiving of asylums appeared on the street of Demianbeni, Moscow. Residents were asked to free up cars and personal belongings from the parking lot by October 18 because these parking lots have both civil defense facilities, which are called air defense facilities.
On October 16, the first echelon of the Belarus-Russian joint force had arrived in Belarus. Several media reported that the vanguard of the Russian army had arrived in Brest near the border between Belarus and Poland, and the Russian army was also gathering towards Brest. According to the announcement of the Minsk Ministry of Defense, a total of 9,000 Russian army soldiers will be stationed in Belarus.
On October 17, the iranintl.com website reported that in addition to providing suicide drones to Russia, Iran also plans to provide Russia with domestic Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar surface-to-ground missiles. The supply of weapons from Iran will help supplement Russia's large-scale consumption of precision-guided munitions.
Target: Poland or Lviv?
Belarus and Poland are assembled on the border, and the target is Poland? Obviously, Russia has long disliked this shoe-sharp cloth in Poland. Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Poland has jumped the highest. Not only has it supported Ukraine with a large number of weapons, but it also gave Ukraine 9,000 starlink clients, which made Russia's eyes almost burst into flames. Moreover, Brest is only 190 kilometers away from the Polish capital Warsaw . Is Russia really going to attack Poland?
But it doesn't seem to be. Russia does not want to provoke NATO . Russia's target is likely to be Lviv on the Ukraine border, because it is a major aid material distribution center for NATO to enter Ukraine. The M10 highway directly reaches the Polish city Krakow . In addition, Lviv also has the railway hub between "Danylo Halytskyi" International Airport and Lviv, and is also located in western Ukraine far from Russia. It has unique geographical advantages, allowing NATO equipment supporting Ukraine to be scattered into various parts of Ukraine from here quickly and conveniently.
Therefore, everyone believes that this is the purpose of Russia! Although Lviv is also among the key target strikes in Ukraine's entire territory that began on the 10th, air strikes are not enough to solve this problem, because Lviv's underground transportation network and reserve facilities are enough to deal with the strikes of 's conventional weapon , and it is necessary to solve Lviv, the heart that transfusions blood to the entire territory of Ukraine once and for all.
Another more important problem is that Lviv is located on the Ubo border, which is also the key to retreat to the European hinterland in the future if the Ukrainian army fails. Therefore, Lviv not only has strong strategic significance, but also the psychological rear of the Ukrainian army. If this place is occupied and destroyed by the Russian army, the psychological impact on the Ukrainian army will inevitably be very huge.
Arrival from Brest in Belarus to Lviv only about 250 kilometers. Both are hills and plains. The marching speed of mechanized troops is estimated to be available in one day and night. A large number of troops stationed in Brest is obviously increasing the pressure on Lviv, Ukraine. Even if the Russian army does not move, NATO's actions will obviously be restrained. Of course, the Russian army is obviously not here to show its existence, and there will definitely be some big moves. Otherwise, the preparation of so many countries and actions mentioned above will definitely not be as simple as "inviting guests to dinner".
This operation of the Russian army will surely solve Lviv to relieve the huge pressure on the Russian army in the eastern Ukrainian front!
The Russian army's battlefield pressure is huge: it is urgent to reduce the pressure on the Eastern Front
When Russia announced that the four Ukrainian states would decide the future in the form of a referendum, everyone realized that Putin's strategic intention in Ukraine had been narrowed to just protecting the four Ukrainian states. However, at the same time, Putin also announced the mobilization of local wars in the domestic market when the war was intensified. Many people could not understand what Putin was going to do, but a landmark event occurred at this time, which finally gave everyone a comprehensive understanding of Putin's intentions!
Nord Stream Line was bombed: Europeans were still confused, Americans took the lead
On the night of September 26, the explosion on Baltic Sea broke the tranquility of the Russian Nord Stream Line surveillance duty room, and the pipeline pressure dropped sharply. Many European countries monitored the powerful earthquake wave caused by the explosion. The next day, Swedish and the Danish Maritime Bureau found that a large amount of natural gas was leaking from the area where Nord Stream Line 1 and Line 2 were passing through.
Then the Swedish Foreign Minister confirmed that the Nord Stream line was an accident caused by an explosion, and the Ukrainian Space Agency's calculations showed that the explosion equivalent of is equivalent to 700 kilograms of TNT, which was a completely premeditated attack. The biggest suspect is the United States or a European country instructed by the United States.
The United States has seen through Russia's trump card
Winter is coming, Europe lacking natural gas and electricity will have a difficult winter of 2022, while Putin expressed his trump card to Europe with the four eastern states and local mobilizations. And Russia only cares about the four eastern states in Ukraine. Playing, Russia has already mobilized locally. It is very likely that Russia will prepare for both hands and use the North Stream Line to restore gas supply as an important bargaining chip to hold peace talks with Europe.
Europe also has a basis for peace talks. After all, the cold winter is real, but the United States is not willing to see such a result. It took the pot and blew up the Nord Stream pipeline. Russia's "blacklist" of Europe's trump card with natural gas disappeared in an instant. On September 30, the United States announced the establishment of a "supervision center" to aid Ukraine in Germany, directly putting the knife on Europe's neck. Even if Europe is tough, it will have to go.
The Crimea Bridge was bombed: One fire is not enough, burn another one!
The bombing of the Crimea Bridge is really a bad move by Ukraine. Therefore, Ukraine is unlikely to make the decision to blow up the Crimea Bridge without authorization. It is very likely that it was an operation under the instruction of the United States! The red line drawn by Russia itself must retaliate against Ukraine with major military actions, because on July 19, Medvedev stated that if someone dares to attack Crimea , then the day of judgment will surely usher in!
As expected, on October 10, the key targets of Ukraine were ruthlessly attacked by the Russian army. A large number of military, industrial and energy targets were attacked. Ukraine fell into darkness. Ukraine suffered heavy losses and paid a heavy price for blowing up the Crimean Bridge. Russia also consumed a large amount of precision-guided munitions. Putin did not want to attack these targets, which was contrary to the code of action in the early stages of the special operation.
cannot completely solve the problem: the pressure on the eastern front of Ukraine is huge
Since early September, the Russian army has not performed well on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine. Lisichangsk, North Donetsk and other places are "defeated like mountains of fallen". Russian troops in many areas retreated in a hurry, and after the collapse, they fled to surrounding areas.The same situation has also occurred in the Khlsong region in southeastern Ukraine. Many Russian troops have discovered that the Ukrainian army can often bypass the Russian army's heavily guarded defense line and turn to attack the weakest positions.
even the Ukrainian army can wrap the Russian troops into the pocket array with no more troops than the Russian army. Therefore, the Russian army that obtained the actual battlefield had to retreat urgently. On the front line of the Russian-Ukrainian battle, the Ukrainian army could always accurately obtain the information of Russian fighter jets flying at ultra-low altitudes, and promptly fired missiles , and shot down a large number of Russian fighter jets that used uncontrolled rockets to attack the ground.
When the outside world expressed bad temper and low morale to the Russian army, Russia's First Channel raised this question to him during an interview with General Andreevich, commanding the Russian front line:
"Why did the Russian army suffer a crushing defeat recently?"
The Russian army has performed poorly recently, and the Russian people are also eager to know the answer. The general replied:
"We are not fighting against Ukraine, but fighting NATO. NATO's resources are far superior to Russia, especially in terms of intelligence. NATO satellites have almost grasped the precise position of each of our tanks and , and also grasped the precise coordinates of each of our artillery positions. NATO's intelligence technology is too strong. The Russian army can hardly win the war."
This is a very dangerous trend. Russia has lived a hard life without money since the collapse of . After , the Soviet Union collapsed . After 2000, the surge in oil prices gave Russia a chance to breathe, and the arms business also made a lot. In Gulf War , Russia also saw how the US military abused its opponents in the situation of information asymmetry on the battlefield, so it spared no effort to build a C4I combat system, but there were many breakthroughs and it was impossible to form a system.
Under such conditions, the Russian army has no big problems in local battles, but it is difficult to get on the front line of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, from early warning aircraft to air defense system , and then to combat teams, only partial connections can be maintained. Moreover, the informatization of Russian soldiers is far from the level of NATO soldiers, and battlefield fire support calls are often not timely enough, and the capabilities of battlefield perception and feedback are far from NATO.
At this time, NATO gathered forces from many countries to arm the Ukrainian army, and the Ukrainian army under full armed forces such as intelligence networks, satellite reconnaissance, and drones. It actually formed an advantage of one-way transparency against the Russian army. This battle could not be fought. The Russian army obviously could not adapt in a short period of time, and it was not until early October that it gradually stabilized its position.
There is also a video from the front of the Ukrainian army. The tablet in the hands of the soldiers operated by the Ukrainian army's beech air defense system seems to be connected to a map with huge air information. It is very likely that the air information information of NATO early warning aircraft was sent to the level of the soldiers through the data link provided by Starlink. This perception ability is really like a thorn in the throat for the Russian army.
solves Lviv, gives Ukraine a heavy blow, and gives NATO warnings, which may be Putin's next important step. This situation must be opened up, so that the Russian army can promote peace through war and protect the four states in the east of Wu and Dong.
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