Direct news: German Chancellor Scholz days ago clearly stated that he supported economic globalization and said that "decoupling" is the completely wrong path, and Germany must carry out trade with many countries, including China. What do you interpret this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I think Scholz's statement might not have attracted people's attention if it were placed a few years ago, and even Scholz did not have the need to make such a statement. Because a few years ago, almost everyone believed that economic globalization and the world's major economies doing business with China were an irreversible major trend. However, at present, Scholz's statement has attracted widespread attention and extensive media reports. People even believe that Scholz still needs some courage to make such a statement under such a background and such opportunity. The reason behind this is that no one expected a few years ago that the ongoing wave of economic globalization would suddenly have a huge ups and downs, or even a certain degree of reversal. He did not expect that doing business with China would actually be "political incorrect" in the eyes of some people in some countries.
In my personal opinion, although this wave of anti-globalization and "decoupling" from China began with the trade war and technological war with China promoted by former US President Trump , it was pushed to a new level by the unremitting Biden administration, and even a very dangerous trend appeared. Because although the Trump administration was the initiator of this wave of anti-globalization and "decoupling" from China, they adopted the method of letting the United States fight with China alone. At that time, the trade between China and Europe and China and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region was not affected or impacted.
After Biden came to power, he turned China and the United States' single-handed battle in economic, trade and technology wars into summoning allies to "fight a group" with China. On the one hand, in the Indo-Pacific region, the Biden administration extended its hands across the Pacific and launched the " Indo-Pacific Economic Framework " with restructuring the industrial chain and excluding China as the core content, and used it as the core content of implementing the " Indo-Pacific Strategy ". On the other hand, the Biden administration extended its hands across the Atlantic and asked the EU to choose sides and join the camp of economic encirclement in China, and made the China-EU Investment Agreement that was finally negotiated on the ground was shelved by the European side. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict that broke out half a year ago has made the EU more reliant on the United States. Against this backdrop, for some time, European countries have no longer dared to make different voices from the United States on economic and trade issues with China.
It is in this situation that I believe that German Chancellor Scholz and EU Trade Commissioner Dombrovskis both expressed their voices to support globalization and oppose "decoupling" from China. This is actually a "rebellion" against the United States, especially the Biden administration, reflecting their concerns about the EU's excessive dependence on the United States and their desire to increase China-EU trade to solve the current economic difficulties faced by the EU.
Direct news: We see that Mao Ning, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also gave a positive and positive response to the statement made by German Chancellor Scholz and EU Trade Commissioner Dombrovskis. What do you think about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: I want to remind everyone that German Chancellor Scholz and EU Trade Commissioner Dongbrovskis' statement happened on October 11, and that day happened to be the 550th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Germany. Both leaders of China and Germany exchanged congratulatory messages for this. In the congratulatory message, China called on Germany to push the all-round strategic partnership between China and Germany to a new level, while German President Steinmeier said that Germany-China economic and trade cooperation is in the interests of both sides.Before this, there were unconfirmed news that German Chancellor Scholz might visit China in November. I think these all mean that German Chancellor Scholz and EU Trade Commissioner Dombrovskis' statements have sent a signal of further cooperation to China.
Moreover, I have noticed that China has also taken the initiative to fight against the unhealthy trend of anti-globalization. All signs seem to show that China's diplomatic strategic layout is like this. The first step is to once again hope to impress and hold Germany with economic and trade relations. The second step is to use the improvement of China-Germany relations to leverage the improvement of China-EU relations, because Germany plays an important role in the EU. The third step is to use the improvement of China-EU relations to counter the anti-globalization promoted by the Biden administration and the wave of "decoupling" from China's economy and technology. Because although the United States and Europe share the same ideology and values, and although Europe's dependence on the United States in terms of security is deepening, the two sides still have different interests at the economic level. This is a breakthrough point in which China can once again leverage China-EU relations and use the EU to counter the United States.
However, although German Chancellor Scholz and EU Trade Commissioner Dombrovskis both followed China's call and made a statement against the United States on economic globalization and "decoupling" with China, in the end, whether China's relations with the EU can return to the right track along the path they have taken in the past will still face a series of challenges, because now it is time to change. First of all, the biggest difficulty still comes from the United States. I believe that the Biden administration will definitely interfere. Moreover, while the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is still in progress, Europe's dependence on the United States has increased and unabated, both Germany and the EU have not been as strong as before. Secondly, after the provocation and lobbying of the Biden administration in the past two years, the right-wing forces in Europe are now rising again. They obviously regard ideology as more important than economic interests, especially the European Parliament is the base of right-wing forces, which is precisely they have prevented the entry into force of the China-EU Investment Agreement; and so on, this Russian-Ukrainian conflict has caused the rift between the EU, that is, , Central and Eastern European countries and traditional EU powers, including Germany and France, to deepen. Some Central and Eastern European countries have become increasingly radical and ideological, and they may become unfavorable factors for the improvement of China-EU relations.
Author丨Liu Heping, Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcast Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan" special commentator
