On October 10, in retaliation against the Crimea Bridge incident, the Russian army used about 200 missiles at one time to launch a large-scale strike on Ukraine's infrastructure.
After the Russian army's "first episode" attack ended, the Russian army did not stop there. On the 11th, the Russian army's birthday on Ukrainian commander-in-chief Surovijin, the Russian army continued to launch intensive attacks on Ukraine, and the Russian missiles rushed to Ukraine again. Ukrainian media pointed out that Kiev Prefecture , Vinnica Prefecture , Rovno Prefecture, Dnepropetrovsk Prefecture , Odessa Prefecture , Nikolayev Prefecture , and Krivorog, Ivano-Frankovsk , and Zaporoze were all attacked by missiles from the Russian army.
It seems that Surovigin's takeover will change the combat style of the Russian army. Belarus' National Security Committee has made an estimate that if Russia can ensure the quality of the mobilization work and ensure the technical equipment of the Russian army is guaranteed, then the Russian special operation against Ukraine will enter a critical stage. The Russian Satellite News Agency commented on this, saying that Belarusian implied that the Russian military's special operation against Ukraine will usher in the turning point in winter .
If the Russian army's special operation against Ukraine is to usher in a turning point in winter, changes in internal and external factors are crucial.
First, internally, Russia needs to improve the combat effectiveness of the Russian army.
Belarus's prediction reflects optimism towards the Russian army, and also points out the problems of the Russian army. Russia did carry out local mobilization and also replaced Russian commanders with major blood exchanges, but the chaos brought about by mobilization cannot be ignored even Putin . At the same time, Russian State Duma also paid attention to the logistics chaos of the Russian army.
In addition, Ukraine's battlefield is vast, and it is hard to say whether the Russian army can change its defensive situation by mobilizing the 300,000 yuan to the Ukrainian battlefield. If the Russian army wants to solve the problem of insufficient troops, they may consider allowing Belarus to send troops to the battlefield. However, Poland has begun to evacuate overseas Chinese from Belarus , which makes people wonder whether Poland intends to attack Belarus.
Belarus is also worried. Although it agrees to organize regional joint combat forces with Russia, it particularly emphasizes that the task of regional troops is defense. Belarusian President Lukashenko pointed out that the West encouraged Ukraine to drag Belarus into "a meaningless war" . From this point of view, Belarus does not seem to want to join the Ukrainian battlefield.
As for technical equipment, Russia cannot expect it to achieve technological breakthroughs in the short term, and it is even more unwilling to cater to the wishes of the United States and realize nuclear weapon in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Therefore, Russia can only allow military-industrial enterprises to maintain production at full capacity and purchase equipment from the outside.
Iran repeatedly emphasized that it did not provide weapons to Russia and deliberately demonstrated a neutral position verbally. However, Ukraine still accused that during the Russian army's attack on Vinnica on the 11th, the Russian army used an Iranian drone to hit a thermal power plant in Ukraine.
From this point of view, Russia and Iran have reached a tacit understanding on military cooperation, and Iran's drones have indeed performed well in the Ukrainian battlefield. If the Russian army can install a large number of Iranian suicide drones, it will have a better suppression effect on the assembly of the Ukrainian mechanized troops, and at the same time enhance the destructive power of the Ukrainian military supply line.
Second, as far as externally, Russia needs the United States to adjust its route to Ukraine.
After all, there is a large gap in Russia and Ukraine's military strength. It is crucial for the Ukrainian army to resist until now. The continuous assistance of the United States is crucial. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov pointed out on the 211th that the United States has actually become a direct participant in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. The United States not only directly recruits and hires soldiers to fight against the Russian army, but also assists the Ukrainian army in using U.S. aid weapons. If the United States gives up blood transfusions to Ukraine, the Ukrainian army will soon be no match for the Russian army.
is also because of this. Ukraine is worried, worried that the United States will no longer support Ukraine after the Republican Party wins the midterm elections.After all, Republican candidate Trump has begun calling for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Republican lawmakers have also publicly called on the United States to stop aid to Ukraine. Under the instruction of the Democratic Party, Zelensky was not willing to negotiate with the Russian side, and the Biden administration was constantly escalating military aid to Ukraine.
What is the outcome of the midterm election? Although the Democratic Party is in danger, the outcome is still difficult to predict. Even if the Republican Party wins the midterm elections, the Republican Party needs to consider the interests of the United States. The United States invests too much in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Will it be a waste of work for more than half a year? EU Although he is tired of aiding Ukraine, he is unable to be independent. However, after the Russian army attacked Ukraine's infrastructure on a large scale, France, a core EU member state, publicly stated that he would fully support Ukraine.
Unless the United States and Europe are really exhausted and are powerless to aid Ukraine, Russia will not be able to count on the improvement of the external environment, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is likely to continue for a long time.
Of course, the prediction cannot keep up with the actual changes. If the Russian army can improve its combat effectiveness, or the United States stops aid to Ukraine, the Russian-Ukraine conflict will indeed usher in a turning point.
