The explosion at the Crimea Bridge was both unexpected and reasonable.
On the one hand, in order to protect the Crimea Bridge, Russia deployed troops equivalent to an air defense division nearby. Theoretically, under the Russian army's 24-hour high surveillance, it is almost unlikely to attack the bridge, whether it is Ukraine or Western countries. In addition, the Russian side has the right to speak out, and Moscow will launch strong revenge no matter who attacks the bridge.
However, considering that the "entry into Russia" in the four places of Ukraine greatly stimulated Kiev , from a realistic perspective, it is reasonable for Ukraine to respond in this way.
Although various signs indicate that the attack is likely to be initiated by Ukraine, as of now, Ukrainian officials do not seem to be open to their intention to be responsible for the matter. Therefore, the key to how much this incident will ferment in the future lies in the Russian investigation results.
It is worth mentioning that Russia quickly repaired the bridge while investigating. It is reported that in less than a day, Russia announced that the bridge will be reopened. Reports show that all trains on the schedule will be released.
In addition, Putin signed a presidential order aimed at strengthening the transmission security of electricity and natural gas in Crimea. From this perspective, learning from one's mistakes will undoubtedly prevent similar attacks from appearing again.
As for how the "master behind the scenes" planned this attack and how Russia will retaliate, we are not clear at the moment. However, analysts believe that judging from the current situation, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is developing in a direction that is unfavorable to Russia, because after this battle, the weaknesses of the Russian army have been completely exposed, that is, their travel and logistics are inseparable from railways.
In Kharkov , after the Ukrainian army captured Balaclia, the Russian army withdrew, and after the Ukrainian army captured Chongliman, the Russian army withdrew. Does this mean that once the Crimean Bridge is completely paralyzed or faces more risks, the Russian army fighting in southern Ukraine will undergo another strategic retreat. After all, compared with Baraklia and Chongliman, the Crimea Bridge has a higher strategic value to Russia because it is the most important logistics support for the Russian army to fight in southern Ukraine.
So, Putin will face at least two difficulties next, one is how to ensure the safety of the Crimean Bridge, and the other is how to retaliate to maintain the credibility of the Russian government.
As mentioned above, before that, Russia had invested a lot of energy to protect the Crimean Bridge. But even so, the Crimea Bridge has been attacked many times over the past few months. The only difference may be that the explosion on the 8th has had the greatest impact on it, which has attracted the attention of the outside world.
Based on this background, Russia's only strengthening military deployment around Crimea may not be enough. After all, if it was the Russian local enemy special forces who planned these attacks or bribed certain key personnel, it would be useless even if there were many troops to garrison. Therefore, compared to strengthening deployment, for Putin, internal purge may be the top priority.
It is undeniable that before Putin signed the "entering Russia" agreement between the four Ukrainian places, he emphasized that Russia does not rule out that it will take out nuclear weapons to defend the integrity of sovereignty, but the problem is that from a realistic perspective, Putin dares not easily press the nuclear button due to public opinion pressure alone. As for the crackdown on Ukrainian infrastructure, Russia has been doing this since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but it does not seem to have played a big role.
In general, the explosion of the Crimea Bridge is very likely to trigger a series of chain reactions. If Russia cannot respond effectively, the situation in Russia and Ukraine may undergo earth-shaking changes. At the same time, as Russia is further forced to a dead end, the risk of nuclear war in is also increasing, which is not good news for the international community.
