Author: Junqing Ge
The only thing that can be determined by the war is its uncertainty.
: Russia has just gained 4 states. At the grand ceremony held, Putin also gave a passionate speech, which was very exciting.
But I haven't had this joy yet. Russia was hit hard again on the Ukrainian battlefield. It can be said that the situation has changed a lot again - the Ukrainian army surrounded Chongliman and attacked the city. What's going on with
? Let's explain it carefully.
The first day after the four eastern Ukraine lands entered Russia, the Russian army lost a "new territory". Will Putin defend his own interests with nuclear bombs? On October 1, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Russian army and Donbass armed forces have retreated from the city of Chongliman and are preparing to retreat to a more favorable position. As for where it is, the Russian army did not disclose it.
In response to this matter, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin commented, "This is an encouraging victory achieved by Ukraine and will bring new difficulties to Russia." Why did he say that? The reason is that the Russian army is an important supply point for supplying military supplies to the south and west. Therefore, if the winning mannequin is lost, the Russian army will be in a dilemma, which will be more conducive to the Ukrainian army entering the Donbas area to regain more territory.
The British BBC also believes that the withdrawal of the Russian army from the Trump-Mann was a major setback in its eastern battle. The more serious problem is that the loss of the Russian army's dividend means that it loses a new piece of territory.
Isn’t this a slap Putin in the face? Because Putin has signed a treaty for the merger of the four eastern Ukrainian regions into the Russian Federation.
In accordance with the Russian national laws and the collective statements of Russian top leaders, Russia will use all means to defend the newly joined Russian territory. The bonus man belongs to the Donetsk region. It is less than a day since it was obtained. The bonus man, who had just been incorporated into Russia's new territory, was attacked. As a new territory that enjoys the right to be defended by Russia, Putin cannot sit idly by.
Now, the territory that he just obtained has been lost. This is a small irony. No matter what, Russia must respond. So will the Russian side use the nuclear weapon as it warned?
At present, due to excessive public opinion in Western countries, there is a lot of international public opinion about Russia's use of nuclear weapons to attack Ukraine, which also puts Putin under great pressure. If you count it down, Russian senior leaders have expressed this view at least 5 times before this. Including the leader of Chechnya Kadyrov , he also criticized the Russian general La Ping's command problems after withdrawing from Liman. Kadyrov said that it is time for the Kremlin to use low-equivalent nuclear weapons, and there is no need to look around and consider the feelings of Western countries when making some decisions.
Washington also stated that if Russia uses nuclear weapons desperately, they will take a series of measures to respond, including the use of mobile submarines and B52 bomber , to carry out beheading strikes on Putin's Kremlin, and even positioning the Russian leader to carry out targeted strikes.
The United States' statement has attracted the attention of the Kremlin.
From another perspective, if Putin really takes action, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may evolve into nuclear war. The Ukrainian army will not stop attacking just because Russia has added four "new territory". The United States and the West will never recognize that the four places in eastern Ukraine belong to Russian territory. In the future war, the United States and the West have stated that they will also provide Ukraine with more weapons and other support to ensure that it can defeat the Russian army.
On October 1, media reported that the Ukrainian Foreign Minister expressed his gratitude to the United States for providing $12.35 billion in new aid. Whether there are so many or not, this is obviously playing a role in public opinion to put pressure on Russia. Obviously, the more victories the Ukrainian army achieved, the greater the aid provided by the United States and the West, and the greater the intensity until it defeated Russia.
This also conforms to the basic judgment of American strategists. On September 30, Kissinger said in an interview that to some extent, Russia has lost the war. He stressed that Russia's energy to threaten Europe with force has obviously failed.
You should know that in May, Kissinger said that don’t expect Russia to lose a crushing defeat. Ukraine is suitable for being a neutral buffer country, not the border line of Europe. Now his attitude makes a 180-degree turn, claiming that Russia lost the war, which is obviously the victory achieved by Ukraine that changed his view.
Obviously, if Russia wants to achieve the final victory, it still needs to see the truth on the battlefield. It is hoped that it will force Ukraine to hold peace talks through the so-called annexation of Ukraine's territory, which is not feasible. And Russia cannot use nuclear weapons to defend newly joined territory. The logic in
is that if Russia cannot defeat Ukraine in a conventional war and still has to use nuclear weapons to attack Ukraine, it means that Russia has lost.
This will inevitably be more than worth the loss for Putin. Moreover, the use of nuclear weapons to attack hostile parties requires several conditions stipulated in the Russian nuclear deterrence policy document. First, Russia and its allies are attacked by the opponent's nuclear bomb. Second, the hostile side attacked the Russian nuclear weapons facilities. Third, let Russia feel the situation of "destroying the country and extermination".
At present, no situation is in line with Russia's use of nuclear bombs. Because Ukraine, which was attacked by Russia, did not launch nuclear bombs, and the United States and the West that support Ukraine did not deploy nuclear bombs. The US and Russia’s statements on nuclear strikes are still verbally and have not been put into practice.
It is important to note that there are more than Russia in the world that has nuclear weapons, China, the United States, Britain, France, India, Pakistan and North Korea. It is precisely because everyone has nuclear weapons that they dare not use each other, which maintains a "peaceful situation under nuclear deterrence."
So the probability of using a nuclear bomb is much lower than the probability of winning the first prize of 100 million yuan! We can regard the US and Russia’s nuclear weapons remarks as a verbal warning. They naturally hope that the other party will not attack themselves, otherwise they would have started a nuclear war long ago. How could they have the chance to be serious verbally?
