On the morning of September 19th local time, the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom was held in Westminster Abbey, London.
"The Queen of Iron, the Prime Minister of Flowing Water". Just over a dozen days ago, then-Hong Kong Foreign Minister Elizabeth Trass had just accepted the appointment of the queen and officially became the 56th Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. He is also the third female prime minister in British history after Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May . Trass's political honeymoon was forced to be suspended due to the death of the queen.
The world's eyes are focusing on Trass. Johnson Leave multiple economic and livelihood issues to the successor inflation , energy crisis, workers' strikes and other multiple economic and livelihood issues. After the Queen's funeral, the Conservative Party government led by Tras had to face the difficulties.
In the opinion of the experts interviewed, the internal problems of the UK are greater than the so-called external challenges. The next test of Tras is how to make achievements during his term and transition smoothly to the 2025 general election. If Britain falls deeper and deeper in the "quagmire", Tras may be just a "spread prime minister". How can
win?
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On September 6th local time, after the inauguration speech, Tras and her husband were in front of the Prime Minister's House. Photo/People's Vision
When Graham Brady, chairman of the Conservative Party member group "1922 Committee", announced the election results, Trass then delivered a winning speech. Former British Chancellor Sunak sat down in the audience and applauded from time to time and listened to the speech throughout the whole process.
Sunak was once considered the most likely candidate to replace Johnson. In the past two months, he won the first place in five rounds of votes conducted by 358 Conservative Lower House members and eventually entered the "two-choice-one" decisive battle with Trass. It was also in this round of voting that Sunak eventually missed the position of Prime Minister.
According to a survey conducted by the British polling agency YouGov in August, Tras's approval rating was 69% and Sunak was 31%. But the final vote counting results showed that Tras and Sunak received 57% and 43% of the votes for Conservative Party members, respectively. It is reported that this is the weakest victory since the Conservative Party implemented new rules for intra-party elections in 2001.
continues to pay attention to the election trends. Tian Dewen, deputy director and researcher of the Institute of Russia and Eurasia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, is impressed by Sunak's performance: "He is not only professional, but also moderate and pragmatic. He has a good reputation in the lower court. It should be said that it is much more appropriate to solve the current difficulties in the UK than Trass." Cui Hongjian, director of the Institute of Europe of the China Academy of International Studies, also told the reporter of " China Report " that Sunak, as an Indian, first entered the investment banking work first, then devoted himself to politics, and had a relatively strong technical bureaucratic background.
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Sunak was born in Southampton, England. He became a member of parliament in 2015 and served as the British Secretary of the Exchequer in 2020. Photo/Xinhua News Agency
"Sunak's background and identity represent innovation and inclusion, which makes him more popular in the elite level, but for ordinary conservative party members, whether it is his immigrant descendants or his early business experience, it will become a weakness." In Cui Hongjian's view, the last round of voting was not a national election, but an internal election conducted by 160,000 basic party members. Tras defeated Sunak, exposing the division within the British Conservative Party, especially the elite and basic party members in terms of selection standards.
Responsible Under the Cabinet system, cabinet members will be questioned for their loyalty if they do not advance and retreat with the Prime Minister. All the experts interviewed emphasized the adverse impact Sunak has brought to himself by "rebound" Johnson.
In the wave of resignation of Johnson government officials that broke out in early July this year, Sunak, who was then the Chancellor of the Chancellor of the Certificate, took the lead in resigning, and was accused of being one of the key figures in "forcing the palace" of Johnson. "Trass is relatively cautious and did not give up his support for Johnson at the last moment." Cui Hongjian analyzed that although Johnson eventually stepped down, he still has some popularity among grassroots party members, and his supporters are obviously more inclined toward Trass.
Women, white, and have held important positions in three consecutive Conservative governments. Cui Hongjian believes that these characteristics of Tras resonate with the most conservative faction in the Conservative Party.Tian Dewen said that in contrast, Sunak, the traditional factions of the British Conservative Party were not prepared to welcome the first non-white prime minister.
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Tras participated in the TV debate on the Conservative Party Leadership's election on July 15, and was accused of deliberately imitating the outfit he dressed when he first participated in the Conservative Party Leadership's debate in 1979. Photo/Network
Tian Dewen also pointed out that faithfully imitating former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher has brought extra points to Tras. "Mrs. Thatcher is known as the ' Iron Lady ', and his administration was also the most glorious period of the Conservative government after World War II . Tras deliberately imitated his clothes and behavior, playing the emotional card, which awakened the nostalgia complex within the Conservative Party to a certain extent." He said.
Cui Hongjian also mentioned that in the debate before the last round of elections, Trass successfully catered to the psychology of the people and voters, such as proposing tax cuts clearly and setting upper limits for energy prices. "No matter whether the policy is feasible or not, for ordinary party members, this is what they want. This is actually an obvious way to please supporters." In Cui Hongjian's view, Sunak has a technocratic background and is in charge of finance, so he cannot do what Tras does, "no matter how effective it is, just introduce the policy first", which has also led to his decline in attractiveness to voters.
The survey results of the British polling agency showed that only 12% of respondents believed that Tras would become a "good" or "excellent" prime minister; as many as 52% of respondents believed that she would be a "bad" or "bad" prime minister.
Tian Dewen and Cui Hongjian both mentioned that in the strict sense, the Trass government is "not legal enough" because Tras is only elected within the party. Whether it can withstand the test of parliamentary elections " depends on what Tras can do. If it is a mess, first, the Conservatives may abandon her like they abandon Johnson, second, they may be impeached by the opposition, and even advance the 2025 general election."Tian Dewen said.
Uncontrollable Challenge
Tras won the election, and Queen Elizabeth II of the United Kingdom passed away. Cui Hongjian pointed out to the reporter of "China Report" that this was an emergency after Tras took office. "After the establishment of the new government, there should be other priority things to do, so in the short term, Tras and the royal family will test their organizational and coordination capabilities in handling a series of subsequent matters. ."
Cui Hongjian predicted that in the long run, Tras needs to adapt to the running-in with the new king Charles three worlds, as well as the new changes that Charles will bring to British royal politics and real politics after his succession. However, the death of the Queen may also represent an opportunity. "We can take the opportunity to carry out a series of domestic and diplomatic activities in the UK or the federal government to further boost the hearts of the people and enhance the cohesion and influence of the British government in the Commonwealth."
In fact, what is even more difficult is that Tras took over a UK with a downturn in the economy and a thrilling public grievances.
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An oil tanker is filled with fuel in an oil reservoir area in Hemel Hempstead, England. Photo/Xinhua News Agency
According to British media reports, in order to commemorate Queen of England, the British railway, maritime and transport unions canceled a number of strikes originally scheduled to be launched in September. Such strikes have previously erupted in many places in the UK, and workers in various industries have called for greater wage increases to cover high energy expenditure and other household bills.
The latest poll by the UK's " Guardian " shows that 23% of British people do not plan to use heating this winter, 70% of British people will turn on less heating this winter, and 28% of British people say they need to borrow money to pay their energy bills. The energy bill problem reflects the high inflation rate. Data from the UK's National Statistics Office shows that the UK's CPI rose 10.1% year-on-year in July, higher than the 9.4% increase in the previous month, which also makes the UK the first G7 country to break through the double-digit inflation rate this year.
interviewed experts said that after experiencing Brexit, the new crown epidemic, and the rise in energy prices brought about by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the British people are experiencing a cost-of-living crisis.In his inaugural speech on September 6, Trass listed economy, energy and the UK's National Health System as three priorities. Two days later, Tras announced the government's emergency energy plan, which would keep the average household gas and electricity bills at £2,500 a year, £1,000 less than the limit to be implemented in October.
"Setting an upper limit on energy prices can get the support of most British people. The next question is that the government has paid the order for the people, but who has paid the order for the government?" Cui Hongjian further explained that the UK's electricity price is close to out of control because there are two internal and external markets - the external and international energy markets - the connection between the external and international energy markets is too close, and domestic electricity is highly market-oriented. It only limits prices and does not reform the domestic electricity price market. Not only can it not solve the problem, it may also create new problems. During the campaign, tax cuts were also the card that Tras played the clearest. "I will put money back to people's pockets on my first day as Prime Minister to drive economic growth and provide opportunities for the people," she once said.
"This is in sharp contrast to Sunak's opposition to rash tax cuts, first controlling inflation and then considering tax cuts. It may also be a major reason why she eventually won the election." Cui Hongjian said that the differences on tax cuts just show that Tras is a typical politician - it only gives people political commitments. As for what long-term impact it will have on the economy, especially the relationship between tax cuts and inflation, Tras avoided it.
Looking back on Trass's political career, she is particularly good at expressing her views by adapting to different roles. For example, from early support for , the Liberal Democratic Party and turning to the Conservative Party, from advocating staying in Europe to insisting on Brexit, Tras was therefore named "political chameleon".
"Her show is more important. The Trass government may not be able to introduce updated measures. It is just to continue the policies of the Johnson government, or to increase the implementation efforts." Tian Dewen said: " British Prime Minister actually does not need to be an expert in all aspects. Tras should not overly interfere with the plans proposed by the pragmatic technicians below."
"But even this requirement is judging from the 'big mouth' traits shown in her party's election process, it is not easy. If Sunak reflects Johnson's pragmatic side, Tras reflects Johnson's arrogant side. What Britain needs now is to solve practical problems, rather than endless show." Tian Dewen said.
role transformation tests diplomatic wisdom
is not just a "internal worry", but the newly-taken office of Tras is also facing problems left over from Brexit, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and foreign policy balance.
The most popular one is the Northern Ireland Protocol, which is part of the Brexit agreement. According to the previous agreement, the Northern Ireland region remained within the European single market and the EU customs union to prevent the onshore "hard border" on the Ireland island, while some goods entering the Northern Ireland from the Great Britain Isle of Britain need to undergo customs and border security inspections. However, due to the difficulties in implementing the specific implementation, the United Kingdom and EU have negotiated several times on some contents of the Northern Ireland Protocol.
In June this year, Trass, who was still the Foreign Minister, submitted a bill to British Parliament , officially announcing the specific plan to unilaterally modify some of the contents of the Northern Ireland Protocol. Some analysts have warned that if Tras advances to amend the protocol after taking office as prime minister, it will lead to tensions in relations between the UK and the EU and even trigger a trade war.
"The Northern Ireland Protocol is a basic legal document for Brexit . If not at that time, the EU would not have signed a Brexit agreement with the UK." Tian Dewen analyzed that Trass' actions also offended the United States. Irish citizens in the United States have a great influence on American politics. Trass' attitude has annoyed these people, and it will be seen later whether she will restrain herself.
"Tras's position is changeable, and it is also possible to lower his posture and reconnect with the EU to re-engage the Northern Ireland Protocol," said Tian Dewen.
Cui Hongjian also believes that Tras is not a "amateur" in diplomacy. He has served as Minister of International Trade and Foreign Minister. He has experience in how to find coordination and balance between Britain, Europe and the United States.
△ On September 12, Ukrainian military vehicle driving in Kharkiv region. Photo/China News Service
mentioned how Tras' attitude towards Russia and Ukraine will change. Cui Hongjian pointed out to the reporter of "China Report" that in the West, in an atmosphere of so-called political correctness, that is, they cannot speak soft words to Russia, and they must try their best to support Ukraine, etc., Tras's position may not retreat, and his statement will be the same as Johnson, or even tougher.
"Johnson's resignation shows that the people are already dissatisfied with the internal and diplomatic affairs of the British government. If Tras captures this trend of the people, he actually has the opportunity to balance. He can continue to say harsh words, but he does not have to spend more taxpayers to support Ukraine, or he will not continue to have a stale relationship with Russia." Cui Hongjian said.
During the campaign, when asked how to view French President Macron , Tras bluntly stated that "Macron is an enemy or a friend"; on the issue of China, he said that he would label China as a "threat". This year marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of ambassador-level diplomatic relations between China and the UK. Public opinion believes that Trass' unscrupulous words cast a shadow on British diplomacy.
In Tian Dewen's view, Britain actually has no room for a rebellion in diplomacy, whether it is with Europe or China. "In terms of economic, political and even military, the UK is quite dependent on important international actors, otherwise national interests will be greatly damaged." He said that there are other politicians within the Conservative Party who started out by anti-China, so the election of Tras as prime minister is not the worst option for Sino-British relations. For Tras, he should "listen to his words and watch his actions."
But in Choi Hongjian's view, the Johnson administration hopes to maintain a balanced dialogue policy with China, while Tras may make this balance evolve into an imbalance. "Especially on some issues involving interference in China's internal affairs, her statements will be more positive and she will cooperate more with the United States. But at the same time, Tras must also find a new balance and cannot allow China-UK relations to develop from imbalance to complete imbalance."
Tian Dewen and Cui Hongjian both emphasized the importance of China-UK cooperation in the field of economic and trade. Data shows that in 2021, the bilateral trade volume of goods between the two sides exceeded US$110 billion for the first time, and China is the UK's third largest trading partner and the largest source of goods imports. "China is an important exporter of the UK's service trade and the most important exporter of goods trade. After the UK withdrew from the EU single market, China-UK economic and trade cooperation has not been particularly directly affected so far." Tian Dewen said.
Cui Hongjian said that it is very necessary to think about how to deal with the relationship between China and China from the rise of China, whether from the actual interests of the UK or the understanding of the future international environment. "I think this is a time to really test whether Tras is wise," he said.
Written by: Reporter of "China Report" Chen Ke
Editor: Xu Hao
