The most discussed topic in the past two days is probably the death of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. To be honest, there are many former prime ministers in Japan, but Shinzo Abe is a special case among them because he was in power for a very long time.
In the past, we have said that Japan is a very strange country. Its prime minister seems to change every year. Even Shinzo Abe has changed prime ministers every seven years before. However, Shinzo Abe is indeed an anomaly. He has been in power twice. He has served as prime minister for nearly 10 years. He is the longest-serving prime minister in Japanese history, so naturally Shinzo Abe is very, very important to all of Japan.
Especially although Shinzo Abe resigned two years ago due to personal health reasons, he is still the leader of the largest faction in the Liberal Democratic Party . Some even say that as long as Shinzo Abe is willing, he can replace the current prime minister anytime and anywhere. He truly became the Prime Minister of Japan for the third time. Of course, it is obvious that all this became impossible because of his death.
Others can only serve as Prime Minister for a year and a half, but Shinzo Abe has been Prime Minister for almost 10 years, so he must have some skills and abilities. It is true that 10 years ago in December 2012, when Shinzo Abe became Prime Minister of Japan for the second time At that time, he proposed Abenomics in the hope of saving the Japanese economy.
However, 10 years have passed, has Abenomics really saved the Japanese economy? Let’s look at the numbers first. In 2012, Japan’s national GDP was about 6 trillion U.S. dollars. When Abe retired two years ago, Japan’s national GDP was about 5 trillion U.S. dollars. After 8 years of wandering around, Abenomics The gains that once brought Japan's economy have almost fallen back.
Today, two years later, due to the further sharp depreciation of the yen, Japan's GDP in U.S. dollars today is only about 4 trillion U.S. dollars. Even Japan's per capita GDP is probably lower than that of South Korea. The brilliant Abenomics obviously has no ability to rescue the Japanese economy from the quagmire. On the contrary, it has made the Japanese economy go from bad to worse.
A word that we have been familiar with since the Japanese economic bubble burst in the 1990s. What is it? Japan was lost for 10 years at first, then it was lost for 20 years, and this year it was lost for 30 years. Even the Japanese professor who proposed the concept of Japan’s economy being lost for 10 years was very pessimistic about Japan’s current situation today. Especially like the late Qing Dynasty in our country, almost no one was doing the right things, and everyone watched the country sink step by step.
To be honest, when Abe proposed Abenomics 10 years ago, he wanted to turn the tide. He wanted to get Japan out of the quagmire of the lost 20 years. However, it is obvious that he failed. Abenomics is simple. In short, it is a three-pronged policy proposition, also known as Abe's three arrows, namely an ultra-loose monetary policy, a proactive fiscal policy and a series of structural reform measures.
Why does Abe push these three arrows? As we all know, in the past few decades, the biggest problem facing the Japanese economy has been deflation . It is exactly the opposite of the Western world today. Today, the Western world led by the United States has encountered a huge inflation that has not been seen in 40 years. It is easy for us to understand inflation. It means that money is becoming less and less valuable. In common people's terms, it is just a dime. The purchasing power of 100 yuan at the beginning of the year can only be worth 90 yuan or 95 yuan at the end of the year.
Our currency continues to depreciate every year, and prices continue to soar every year. So for ordinary people, if my salary does not rise and prices continue to soar, then of course my money will become less and less valuable. , the items I can buy will become less and less, and my pain index will become larger and larger, so everyone is instinctively disgusted with inflation.
The purpose of many people to learn financial management is to say that they hope that through financial management, their savings can beat inflation, and do not let my money in the bank become less and less. But do you know that Japan is facing the exact opposite situation as us? Japan has had no inflation but only deflation in the past 30 years. What is deflation?
In a sense, we can understand that money is becoming more and more valuable, or at least money has not become devalued. For example, in the past, we often said that prices in Japan are particularly stable. Some Japanese beverage companies and milk companies sell milk. The price has remained unchanged for decades. One year, due to various reasons, the price had to be increased by 5 yen, which was only a few cents in RMB terms. However, the leadership of the entire company had to apologize.
Why? Because ordinary people in Japan are used to this kind of price that has not changed for decades, this is great for ordinary people. My salary may increase but prices remain unchanged, which means that I am getting richer and richer. I can make money every year. I bought more things, but the problem is that Japan's deflation is not only not rising in prices, but wages are not rising either.
An example we often give is that in the 1980s and 1990s, many Chinese people traveled across the ocean to work in Japan. At that time, everyone was surprised to find that I could earn 1,000 to 1,500 yen for an hour washing bowls in a ramen restaurant. The Japanese yen has caught up with two months’ salary in China.
But today, 30 years later, you can still earn 1,000 to 1,500 yuan working for an hour at a ramen restaurant in Tokyo. What is deflation? This is deflation. Prices have not increased and wages have not increased for 30 years. Some people may say that even if there is no increase, this is not a good thing. It shows that our living standards are stable, but if there is no increase, it means that the economy is also stagnant.
This is why we say that from the 1990s to today, Japan's 30-year GDP has been hovering around 5 trillion US dollars, with no progress at all. So in the past, we said that in fact, mild inflation was 2% per year, Inflation of 3% is good for the economy, which means that the economy of your country is constantly moving forward.
In the past 30 years, the price of our pork has increased, the price of our vegetables has increased, and even the price of bus tickets has increased. But if you think about how much our wages have increased in the past 30 years, the price of our people has increased. How much has living standards improved?
Therefore, the most serious problem in Japan in the past 30 years has been deflation. So after Abe came to power, he hoped to adjust Japan's situation through the three arrows of Abenomics. So what should Abe do? His method is actually very simple, which is to print money, which is similar to the method used by the United States in the past two years. In the past two years, the United States suffered a major economic blow from the epidemic, so the United States printed money.
The United States has printed tens of trillions of dollars. The logic is very simple. The epidemic has hit the economy, and a large number of factories have stopped production. People cannot make money. At this time, the economy needs a driving force, and the government should be the first driving force. , the government prints money and distributes it directly to the people, lending it to various companies at very low prices, and then hopes that the money printed will disrupt the entire economy and make economic activities more frequent.
Abenomics is actually similar to the money printing in the United States. It lowers domestic interest rates and implements quantitative easing policies, or even unlimited quantitative easing policies. The government borrows large amounts of debt and implements active fiscal policies. The government spends large amounts of money, forming this relationship. As the primary driving force of the economy, whether this policy has any effect, it certainly does.
Do you think that in the past two years, the housing market and stock market in the United States have not risen, and even the price of second-hand cars has skyrocketed? Abenomics also hopes to reach such a state through continuous money printing, unlimited quantitative easing, and active fiscal policies. To stimulate the economy and allow Japan's prices to rise, wages will also rise at the same time, quickly moving from deflation to inflation, and then the entire Japanese economy will develop rapidly.
Of course, Abenomics did achieve very good results in the early years. In the first few years of Abe’s administration, Japan’s stock market soared and Japan’s housing prices rebounded. Many people felt that Japan might really be able to emerge from the recession under Abe’s leadership. Economic quagmire.
However, it is obvious that such economic policies are actually harmful. For example, the United States today has fallen into inflation that has not been seen in 40 years. Isn't this caused by the Federal Reserve money printing? At the beginning, the US Treasury Secretary Yellen Last year, they said it doesn't matter. US inflation is preventable and controllable. US inflation is intentional and is temporary.
However, Yellen admitted her mistake this year. She realized that inflation in the United States will be long-term and difficult to suppress. Long-term inflation will have a great impact on the living standards of American people. Of course, Biden may not be entirely blamed. He also did not foresee that there would be a black swan like the Russia-Ukraine war in February this year. Originally, the United States had pinned its hopes on raising interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet several times this year, but this inflation will come back. .
However, after the Russo-Ukrainian war, international energy prices soared, making inflation a wild horse that could not be pulled back no matter how hard you pulled it. So what is it like for Japan? Many people say that Japan’s national conditions are completely different. Some economists say that if Abe’s three arrows had been proposed in the 1980s and 1990s, during Japan’s booming economic period, they might have had a very important effect. It has a big effect. When the government money is invested, it will have a huge multiplier effect and completely stimulate the economy.
But today's Japan is completely different from the 1980s and 1990s. Today's Japan is a super-aging society and a society with a low birthrate. The average age of all Japanese citizens has reached 48 years old, and today's Japan is 65 years old. The above elderly people probably account for more than a quarter of the entire population. Today, there are only hundreds of thousands of babies born a year in Japan. Japan has been shrinking its population for many years.
One of the outstanding characteristics of aging is low desire. Young people are not afraid of tigers when they are born. After they have just entered society, they want to buy this and that. This desire is very strong. After entering middle age, physical functions also decline, and desires are greatly reduced. Especially the desire for consumption is very, very weak. Therefore, some Japanese economists pointed out that in such a state, Abenomics is still It had the opposite effect.
Why? It was originally hoped that a loose monetary policy would fill the market with money, and then prices would soar, wages would rise, and inflation would stimulate the development of the entire economy. However, the situation Japan is facing now is that when the market is filled with money, prices will rise slightly. A large number of Japanese people feel that prices are high, but my salary does not rise immediately, so I might as well spend less. If I restrain my desires, reduce impulse consumption, and spend less money, I can still live my life.
Therefore, the loose monetary policy not only failed to stimulate consumption, but also made consumption more depressed. To be honest, many young people in Japan today cannot be called young people. In our traditional impression, after young people have just entered society, you have to If you endure hardship, you have to work hard. It doesn’t matter if prices are high. If I work more overtime and earn more money, if I work an extra job and earn more money, your salary will rise soon, and you will be able to Break out of this low-income period.
However, to be honest, a large number of young people in Japan today have no fighting spirit. The most extreme Japan has millions of cocooners . What does it mean? After graduating from school, they never find a job in society and stay at home for a long time and rely on their parents to support them.
It doesn’t matter. They are a society with low desires. They have a room, three meals a day, food and clothing, and then they just sit around and watch TV and comics in the room. Desires are very small, and so is consumption. Very low. In such a state, in the later stages of Abenomics, instead of increasing the income of ordinary people, it actually decreased it.
Just like after the United States was printing money like crazy, we said that there was a Matthew effect in economics . Why? You printed so much more money. On the surface, it was distributed to every citizen evenly, but in fact, due to the currency The stock market has soared, and those who have money to invest in the stock market are making a lot of money. Therefore, the wealth of the ultra-rich in the United States has doubled in the past two years, while ordinary people can't even make up for it. Prices rise after inflation, so the lives of the people at the bottom become even more difficult.
Abenomics is not like this. In the past ten years, the assets of Japan’s wealthy class have increased, but the actual income of Japan’s civilian class has declined compared with 30 years ago. This has further aggravated Japan’s The hierarchy is solidified.
Just like some young people joked that there is a parent gacha in Japan today. What does it mean? As a newborn, what kind of family you are born into will probably determine your life for the rest of your life, just like if you get a gacha from your parents, if you twist it to the rich class, you will be a rich person, and if you twist it to the common class, you will be a millionaire. Civilians, so it is obvious that Abenomics, which had high hopes, has not had the desired effect 10 years later. This is probably not the fault of Abe alone, but a problem of Japan's entire economy.
