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The war situation of Ukraine shows that Russia is steadily advancing. The progress in the East Ukraine region is particularly smooth; the Russian army's defense in the Donetsk area is stable, and Ukraine's counterattack has been repelled; the remnants of the army in the Lugansk area are also being gradually eliminated by the Russian army. Now the Russian army's attention has turned to Kharkov . Recently, the Russian army in the Kharkov area launched successive artillery bombardments on the Ukrainian army warehouses and command posts in the area.
(Presidential Secretary Peskov expressed the official attitude: currently does not plan to continue talking with Ukraine)
Due to the smooth offensive, Russia has no intention to negotiate a peace. In a recent phone conversation with Turkey, the heads of state of Russia and Turkey exchanged opinions on grain transportation in the Black Sea region, and at the same time exchanged opinions on the situation in Ukraine over the phone. It is obvious that Türkiye, as an intermediary, is conveying negotiation messages to Ukraine and Russia. However, the current Putin cabinet has no plans to start formal peace talks with the Kiev regime. Russia’s presidential secretary Peskov announced his official attitude: Russia currently has no intention to negotiate with Ukraine.
Readers may be surprised that the war has dragged on for several months. Now wouldn’t it be great if Ukraine’s proposal for peace talks just made Russia step down? Or maybe it would be okay to die less soldiers and get some benefits back. But in fact, in the previously interrupted peace negotiations, the Ukrainian side was unrealistic and made some unacceptable demands: For example, it asked Russia to spit out all the territory of Eastern Ukraine that was lost through bloodshed and return it to it. Think about how such a cheap thing could be accepted by Russia. Moreover, the Eastern Ukraine region has historically belonged to Russia.
(The previous negotiations between the two parties were aborted due to Ukraine's lack of sincerity and the United States' instruction behind it. In addition, Russia has increased the pressure on negotiations from international strategic considerations)
Let's go back and talk about why the Russian government is not negotiating now. In addition to its current dominant position in military occupation, there are also various strategic and political reasons. First of all, Ukraine’s national resources determine its fate of being swallowed up by neighboring powers. This country is rich in coal mines, agricultural and industrial basic resources, and most of the people in this area speak Russian. These situations are completely different from those in the small countries in Central Asia. The ethnic groups here are close to Russia. Because it is deep into the hinterland of Russia and is located in plain areas, it is difficult to defend. So Russians feel very insecure. Therefore, Russia must swallow up this area, otherwise it will not be able to become a powerful country. But now this game is difficult to play because the United States is standing in the way. Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Ukraine's sense of national independence has been very strong. Now that we have separated our lives, and history cannot go back. Judging from the current situation, at least the people in Western Ukraine are very disgusted with Russia. The Putin government cannot gain popular support in Western Ukraine. Even if it becomes a neutral country, it is almost impossible, so Russia can only continue to use force to solve the problem.
(Now the Russian army has decided to use force to suppress Ukraine to resolve the dispute)
Using force is the simplest and crudest way. This is the choice of the Russian government and the Russian people. At this stage, the path of the Russian government's power is solved by war again and again. The leader after the collapse of the Soviet Union was Yeltsin, whose performance in the first Chechen War was very unqualified. After Putin came to power, he resolved the Second Chechen War , and the political goals were basically achieved; and the number of military deaths was relatively small; the Russian people were very satisfied. This ensures the initial establishment of authority of the Putin government.
fought an 8-day war in Georgia in 2008. The Crimean battle in 2014; and later the war in Syria . These military operations have basically achieved political goals and achieved success.The authority of the national leader has also reached its peak. His courage to take action, decision-making and responsible behavior have satisfied the people. Because the Russian people want such a national leader, the people trust and empower the current government. The price is to regain all the national interests that were lost during the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Even if it now encounters sanctions from Western countries or causes domestic living conditions to deteriorate.
(Both the Second Chechen War and the Georgian War were won. This strengthened the Russian people and government's determination to use force to solve problems)
The Russian people have another demand: that is, they have paid so much to ask Russia Gain higher national prestige internationally and improve the international environment. These are easy to understand. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia was vulnerable in the eyes of Europe and the United States. From the economy to national defense, everything has collapsed. Small neighboring countries have repeatedly provoked, and Russia's overseas interests have basically been lost. In the propaganda of Western media, Russians are either gangsters or terrorist groups. Moreover, the Americans have repeatedly extended their black hands to areas surrounding Russia. It would be absolutely unbearable for Ukraine to completely join and NATO .
(The West’s long-term sanctions and smearing of Russia have made the Russian people intolerable, and NATO’s pressing pressure has left Russia with no retreat. Therefore, Russia is eager to use an opportunity to completely defeat Western forces to show its strength. But the conditions for war are absolute It cannot fail, just like the Russian October Revolution)
So paying these prices cannot lead to failure. Just like the Russian Tsar during the World War I and period, the Tsar failed, his government fell, and the people overthrew the dynasty. This military operation was due to the setbacks encountered in the early stages of the war. The Russian army still maintained its offensive after changing its combat strategy. Therefore, he will not compromise at the negotiating table. The Russians will use a favorable posture on the battlefield to suppress Ukraine. Let Ukraine (with the United States behind it) give Russia enough dignity and respect at the negotiating table, otherwise there will be regime instability within the Russian government. This is why Russia is not in a hurry to negotiate now, or will only consider peace talks when it thinks it has gained enough respect internationally. If you have any interesting insights, please leave a message below to discuss! (This article is part of the series "Uncle Yi Talks about the World". For those who are interested, please use WeChat to search the official account: Zhijie Di to watch all original articles in the series "Uncle Yi Talks About the World")
