The assassination of Abe accelerated the process of amending Japan's constitution. The Liberal Democratic Party, Komeito Party, Japan Reform Association, National Democratic Party and other constitutional revision forces won more than two-thirds of the seats in the just concluded Japan Senate election. To put it simply, the proposal to amend Article 9 of the " Peace Constitution" to legalize the Japanese military has no obstacles in Japan. So, is there enough international power to prevent Japan from amending its constitution?
1. The United States will support Japan’s constitutional amendment
When talking about Japan’s constitutional amendment, many people in our Chinese public opinion will mention the hatred and anti-American sentiments deep in the Japanese right wing. Many of us always emphasize that the Japanese right wing believes The "Peace Constitution" was imposed on Japan by the United States, and the Japanese right wing regards it as a shame.
According to this logic, the United States should prevent Japan from amending its constitution. But the fact is exactly the opposite. In today's international situation, the United States will support and even encourage Japan to amend the constitution under certain restrictions. Because now Japan is more like a state in the United States with a special status.
77 years have passed since 1945. 77 years ago, the relationship between the United States and Japan was a relationship where the United States dropped two atomic bombs on Nagasaki and Hiroshima. 77 years later, the US-Japan relationship is one in which Japan submits to the United States from all angles.
The United States knows that Japan's right wing still has some underlying sentiments of hatred and anti-Americanism, but Japan has no way back. From the U.S. military stationed in Japan, to Japanese textbooks, to Japanese politics, finance, and industry, the United States has absolute control over Japan. Both the United States and Japan understand that Japan cannot conquer the world in the hands of the United States.
In the earliest days, the purpose of the Japanese right wing was to resist the United States, and promoting constitutional amendment was only a "path" to achieve the goal. But from now on, the purpose of the Japanese right wing is to amend the "Peace Constitution". In order to achieve the goal of turning Japan into a "normal country" with a legal military, the "path" that the Japanese right wing has thought of in recent years is to cater to the United States. needs, and is willing to serve as cannon fodder for the US geopolitical strategy.
The excuse Japan chose at the beginning was North Korea. But for the United States, North Korea has only initially acquired nuclear deterrence capabilities. It is easy for the United States to contain North Korea politically, economically, and in terms of international public opinion. Taking a step back, it is also easy for the United States to reach a compromise with North Korea. . Therefore, the American smiled but did not let go.
Therefore, under the leadership of Abe, the Japanese right wing found a second excuse, and that was China.
China is a large country with thousands of years of history and an industrialized population of more than 1 billion. For the United States, they have never encountered a competitor with unlimited potential like China. Therefore, while the Japanese right wing represented by Abe submitted a petition to the United States, he hoped that the Americans would loosen restrictions and allow Japan to amend the "peace constitution." The Americans were tempted. In recent years, Americans have relied more and more on Japan's military capabilities and even organized the "Quadrilateral Security Mechanism", the American cannon fodder to deal with China.
In this historical background, the United States' support for Japan's constitutional amendment is just a matter of timing. From a certain perspective, Abe's assassination was more like a "sacrifice" for Japan's right wing to seek the United States' consent to amend the constitution.
2. China and South Korea will oppose Japan’s constitutional amendment
South Korea’s situation is quite special. From a private perspective, South Korean people are really prepared for the restoration of Japanese militarism; but from a perspective of South Korean political forces and conglomerates, this is not necessarily the case.
One is similar to Japan. From a certain perspective, South Korea is also a "colony" and "servant state" of the United States. When the Democratic Party of the United States is in power, South Korea usually moves closer to the United States' Japan-South Korea unity policy. Another reason is that there are a large number of Japanese relics among South Korean political forces and consortium corporate forces that have never been liquidated.
Therefore, South Korea will oppose Japan's constitutional amendment, but this is only superficial, just for the Korean people to see.
We in China will also fiercely oppose Japan's constitutional amendment. But China's opposition may be the excuse and reason for the United States and Japan to promote Japan's right-wing push for constitutional revision.
What should we do to deal with this situation?
First, further accelerate China’s own national defense construction. Use the substantial increase in China's military capabilities to deter Japan's provocation.
If Japan succeeds in amending its constitution, Japan's military strength will indeed grow rapidly, but the growth of military strength requires the investment of resources. Japan's GDP in 2021 is 4.9 trillion US dollars, and China's GDP is 17.7 trillion US dollars. China's economic growth rate and economic aggregate are more than three times that of Japan. Compared with its ability to invest resources, Japan does not have the qualifications to provoke China.
Second, in addition to enhancing our own military capabilities, we must also establish more strategic starting points in the economic and trade fields and geopolitical fields.
If we can quickly solve the Taiwan issue, after the reunification of the two sides, we will be able to control the Taiwan Strait, Miyako, and Bus Straits. The waters surrounding Taiwan are not only the world's busiest cargo shipping lanes, but also the energy lifeline for Japan and South Korea. The Taiwan issue is not only a possible point of conflict between China and Japan in the future, but also the best issue for us to contain the plots of the United States and Japan geopolitically. There are also some strategic starting points similar to
and solving the Taiwan issue. For example, economic and trade policies, trade transaction currencies, local currency swaps, etc.
In short, whether it is pulling or fighting, we must always recognize one problem: What Japan admires most is power. Even if this power will hurt Japan, as long as Japan is unable to resist, they will worship this power unconditionally.
