has become fashionable to challenge the authority of the US dollar. After Russia's desperate counterattack, India will also de-dollarize.
The Reserve Bank of India announced on Monday that it has established a rupee settlement mechanism with immediate effect in order to promote global trade. Let’s take a detailed look at the contents of the Central Bank of India. No matter how you look at it, it is a replica of Russia. After the news came out, many people believed that this was an attempt to challenge the authority of the US dollar.
Of course, as India is a famous backstabber, this move is to gain fame and benefits. But think about it carefully, Russia still has hard currency to resist the United States, so why should India?
- India is short of money, but it is said so clearly and refinedly
Whether a country is short of money mainly depends on foreign exchange reserves, which is the basis of international trade .
Data released by the Bank of India on July 8 showed that as of July 1, the Bank of India’s foreign exchange reserves dropped to US$588.314 billion, the lowest level in 14 months.
Since this year, India's trade deficit has been expanding. It’s a long-winded saying here, a surplus means making money, and a deficit means losing money. India's deficit was US$17 billion in January this year, reaching US$25.6 billion in June, and only US$9.6 billion in the same period last year. In June, exports increased by 16% and imports increased by 51%. After working hard for a month, I lost 25.6 billion. The problem is that my family fortune is only 588.3 billion. If you continue to follow this trend, you will be completely ruined in more than a year.
In this context, the devaluation of Indian currency is also very powerful. The US dollar and rupee was 74.73 in July last year, and this year it quickly reached above 79.27. If the foreign exchange rate continues like this, the consequences will be disastrous.
Everyone should know that India is the beneficiary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. I got a lot of discounted Russian crude oil, processed it and went to Europe to earn the price difference. It can be said that I was full of oil. Against this background, the deficit is still expanding. Without this little money, how long can the family last?
To make matters worse, northern India is experiencing a century of extreme weather this year. The meteorological department predicts that temperatures in the northern and western regions will reach 50 degrees Celsius. Against this background, India needs to increase its efforts to purchase coal to ensure everyone's electricity safety. In order to save foreign exchange, India has experimented with transactions in other currencies this year, such as purchasing a batch of Russian coal for 172 million yuan.
As a populous country, India’s biggest advantage is its labor cost. In recent years, Third Brother has benefited a lot from Sino-US trade. For example, some major electronics manufacturers have announced their entry into India, including , Samsung , and Apple . Frankly speaking, these OEMs have helped India earn some reserves in the past two years.
However, as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, countries with trade surpluses with the United States are under pressure. Whether it is Europe or Asia, most trade last month entered a deficit (losing money) sequence. India cannot remain alone, as its deficit has expanded and formed a trend.
The real purpose of settling the bill in rupees this time is to save foreign exchange by reducing imports. So what I admire most is the wisdom of the third brother, who can talk about the lack of money in such a fresh and refined way, and make the United States have to pay attention to them.
Modi , mentally calculating the autumn wind to see where to hit the two poles. It doesn't matter whether there are dates or not, the key is to take action.
2. Can rupees be paid in international trade?
The reason why the dollar is the world currency is because it can buy anything.
You can buy cigars in Cuba , you can also travel to Thailand, and you can also pay for shoe polishing. Basically no one in this world rejects the U.S. dollar. Although he is paper, no one doubts his value.
If it were exchanged for Indian currency, I think most people would reject it. Because apart from being available in India, it is basically not accepted elsewhere.
India exports commodities that earn foreign exchange, including jewelry, precious metals , electronics (OEM), vehicles, organic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, steel, cotton... If there is one thing that really has an impact, it is Indian sugar. The annual output is 32.5 million metric tons, ranking second after , Brazil and . India has its own advantages in this field.
In addition, there are some agricultural products. However, these do not account for a large share in overall trade.
Russia has energy as its hard currency. If you have rubles or at worst, you can buy energy, but if you have rubles, can you buy Shenma? As sugar prices rise, there may be some support, but it’s unreliable if you think about it. What can be supported now are only prospects and feelings. For example, India has the second largest population in the world and will surpass China to become the largest market next year. This will make it possible to become the largest market in the future; in addition, if the Ganges water can be recognized as the world's holy water, at least it can be used for rupees. Buy something...
Rupee international settlement is a matter of choice. This move can curb imports and alleviate the expansion of the deficit, which is already a great achievement. As for whether global trade can be prosperous, it is probably just a slogan shouted by the third brother.
No matter how much you save, you still have to spend what you need. Energy is highly dependent on imports, and this amount of money cannot be saved no matter what. Therefore, the best way is to continue to play with the price difference of Russian oil, while at the same time beating the United States to show its importance. If
doesn't work well, you can get some money out of it. After all, we have been swinging between the United States, Russia and China in the past, and we have not lost any of the benefits we have gained.
This move is brilliant.
The topic is over. The following is a prediction of the capital market. If you don’t like it, mark it out.
3． Regarding the stock market analysis,
’s trend today is running very reasonably, basically fluctuating in the space indicated.
Looking at tomorrow, there will be a rebound after hits the bottom and , so as long as the decline above 3260 stops tomorrow, you can get some deboned meat to eat. Technically speaking, after three consecutive negative lines, there is a doji here, which means that there is a high probability of a relay of decline. However, a lower shadow trend of bottoming out and rebounding is more in line with the classification of the current trend.
Looking at 15 minutes, as long as there is a low point tomorrow, it will try to rebound again. The approximate pressure is around 3295, with an error of two points up and down.
The trend in peripheral Europe tonight is very interesting. After opening sharply lower, it just made a V turn, but the shape may be very small. Europe as a whole fell tonight, and there is no problem with this. After flipping through US stocks , the downward trend is also stronger than the upward trend, so the outside world is not very optimistic tonight. From the perspective of the
sector, there has been talk of electricity recently, and this trend is very strong and can continue. The positive results in the session brought BIPV to a collective climax. This continuity still exists, and Dragon 1 will continue to seal the board tomorrow normally. In the breeding category, as long as there is a big positive line of and comes out, there is good room for operation if the big negative line goes down. Remember to do the opposite, this is the practice of cutting flesh and blood to serve the emperor, so try not to be so tormented. After
rebounds tomorrow, the defense battle will continue on Friday. The second half of the year is getting closer and closer, the revolution has not yet succeeded, and there is still a lot to work hard for each to cherish.
and above are purely random. Any similarity is purely coincidental and should not be used as an investment basis.
#India announced that international trade will be settled in rupees#
